Lightning Strike in Florida, August 20, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1049 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Current-Tonight...Tightening mid level gradient has subsequently
increased mid/upper winds this morning, as the Atlantic ridge
presses closer to the FL peninsula and little shift in the position
of the mid level trough down the Gulf of Mexico. For this reason,
the Storm Prediction Center has placed most of the Deep South in a
Marginal risk of severe weather today, including the FL peninsula.
The main difference in today's setup compared to previous days this
week will be slightly faster storm motion and the enhancement of
severe wind potential  (hence the marginal risk).

Radar activity across the forecast area remains relatively quiet as
of mid morning, with broad showers and a few embedded storms
creeping along the Citrus/Hernando Co coasts and into NE FL, with
additional activity  in the southern Atlantic waters offshore of
Palm Beach county, all moving towards the northeast. Scattered to
broken cirrus spanning the south over Lake O and just north of
Volusia county will likely not be sufficient to limit overall
coverage today, so keeping current forecast the same, with numerous
thunderstorms developing across the interior over the next few
hours, pushing quickly towards the northeast, with a collision with
the east coast sea breeze sparking additional strong to severe
storms. Morning sounding from XMR a bit warmer aloft than this time
yesterday, but may not have much of a hindrance in convective
development today. Storm threats will be wind gusts in excess of 50
mph with the potential for severe gusts of 60 mph, with heavy
downpours and frequent lightning strikes. Models keeping moisture
over land areas past sunset, so have raised PoPs to 20-30% after 8pm
tonight, with activity still pushing towards the Atlantic. By
midnight, a majority of coverage will dissipate, leaving only a
small chance at the coast. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s/lower
90s, lows in the low/mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Slower start to convection today compared to yesterday, with onset
of showers and storms expected at interior terminals by 18Z. Overall
storm pattern will be similar to previous days this week, with
activity initializing at LEE/ISM first, pushing through the interior
by 20Z and reaching coastal terminals after 21Z. Slightly faster
storm motion today will increase the threat of higher wind gusts of
35 kt and greater. Activity will clear the interior after 22-00Z,
ending at the coast near 02-03Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-tonight...(previous) SW winds 8-12KT with seas 2ft along
the coast and 3ft over the remainder of the MAOR. Occasional seas
near 4ft possible out around 60nm, but for now will cap at 3ft per
latest buoy obs at 41009/41010. Main marine concern, as it has
been all week is the potential for strong offshore moving storms.
This threat will be a little higher today than it has been the
past few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  75  89  76 /  60  40  70  40
MCO  91  75  90  75 /  70  30  70  30
MLB  89  76  89  77 /  70  30  60  30
VRB  89  76  89  75 /  60  30  60  30
LEE  90  75  90  74 /  70  30  70  40
SFB  92  74  91  75 /  70  30  70  30
ORL  91  75  91  75 /  70  30  70  30
FPR  90  76  90  75 /  60  30  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

Smith/Weitlich

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
602 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-202300-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
602 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A moist southwest flow continues across east central Florida.
This will lead to development of numerous showers and lightning
storms, mainly during the afternoon, with a few storms possibly
lingering near the east coast around sunset. Storm motion will be
a little faster today towards the northeast at 20 to 25 mph. This
will lead to a slightly higher threat for damaging wind gusts of
58 mph or greater compared to Wednesday. Frequent cloud to ground
lightning strikes, small hail, and torrential downpours of 1 to 3
inches will also be possible with today's stronger storms. Move
indoors to safety at the first sign of threatening skies, or if
you hear thunder.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Wind gusts to 35 knots or higher will produce locally higher waves
on inland lakes, Intracoastal Waterway, and nearshore Atlantic as
they move northeast at around 20 knots. Boaters should watch for
storm approaching rapidly from the west and southwest today, and
move to safe harbor in advance of their approach.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
There will be a Moderate risk for life-threatening rip currents at
area beaches today. While rip currents will be present all day,
the threat will be highest from 1230 PM and 630 PM due to tidal
effects. To reduce your chance of being caught in the seaward pull
of a rip current, swim only within sight of a lifeguard, and
never swim alone, while following social distancing guidelines.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
Numerous lightning storms are expected again Friday with scattered
storms on Saturday. The main hazards remain strong gusty winds,
frequent lightning strikes, and heavy downpours. A Moderate Risk
of rip currents will also continue at area beached through this
weekend due to a persistent ocean swell.

Tropical Depression 13, over the west-central Atlantic Ocean, is
forecast to move west-northwest across the southern Bahamas and
toward the Florida Straits and Keys as a tropical storm through
early next week. On its current forecast track, winds and seas
will increase enough to produce poor to locally hazardous boating
conditions Sunday night through Monday, mainly south of Sebastian
Inlet. There may also be an increased potential for gusty showers
and squalls to impact the Atlantic waters, Treasure Coast and
Lake Okeechobee region.

Continue to monitor the latest forecasts for Tropical Depression
13 from the National Hurricane Center, as well as your National
Weather Service office in Melbourne

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should monitor the weather and self activate if needed.

Cristaldi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
257 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020

FLZ054-201930-
Indian River FL-
257 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY
UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 256 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sebastian Highlands. This storm was nearly stationary.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sebastian, Indian River Shores, Wabasso, Sebastian Highlands and
Gifford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2768 8033 2765 8053 2782 8054 2782 8051
      2783 8051 2785 8040 2775 8035
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 241DEG 2KT 2776 8048

Combs