Showers and thunderstorms were numerous throughout the morning and afternoon hours on July 6th across portions of East Texas and Southwest Arkansas, ahead of a nearly stationary weak upper level low that lingered over extreme Northeast Texas. A very moist air mass was in place, with diurnal heating contributing to moderate instability, as large scale forcing was adequate ahead of the trough to…
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The episode as NWS SHV wrote it up.
Showers and thunderstorms were numerous throughout the morning and afternoon hours on July 6th across portions of East Texas and Southwest Arkansas, ahead of a nearly stationary weak upper level low that lingered over extreme Northeast Texas. A very moist air mass was in place, with diurnal heating contributing to moderate instability, as large scale forcing was adequate ahead of the trough to maintain shower and thunderstorm development through the day. Very weak winds throughout the atmosphere did not allow these storms to move much, with the very moist environment enhancing rain rates such that these storms were very efficient rainfall producers. As a result, flash flooding was observed in Texarkana as well as Magnolia in Southwest Arkansas before the storms weakened late in the day.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Shreveport, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 6, 6:03 AM CST, 4 hours 59 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 703 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 .AVIATION... MVFR cigs will be possible this morning across portions of E TX/N LA/SW AR, but could be disrupted by sct convection that has developed over E TX/Wrn LA. But otherwise, VFR conditions will continue, although additional convection over N and Ecntrl TX will continue to build E into E TX by mid to late morning, and eventually into SW AR/Wrn LA by midday through mid-afternoon. Additional sct convection should develop farther E by mid to late afternoon, possibly affecting the ELD/MLU terminals. The convection should gradually diminish during the evening, but additional redevelopment is likely later this evening over E TX and will spread E into NW LA after 06Z Tuesday. Have inserted VCTS mention into the E TX/SHV terminals during the evening/overnight hours, with this convection expected to spread E into extreme Srn AR/N LA just beyond the end of the 12z TAF period. Winds today will become SSW 4-8kts after 15Z, except strong/gusty in and near the convection. Lt/Vrb winds will return after 00Z. /15/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020/ SHORT TERM.../Today through Tuesday/ The morning sfc analysis indicates a weak sfc trough extending from just S of the DFW Metroplex ESE to along/just S of the I-20 corridor into Wrn and Cntrl LA. Meanwhile, the mosaic radar imagery indicates a broad cyclonic circulation extending from NE TX into NW LA/extreme SW AR, associated with a weak H850-700 low, with convection beginning to increase along the Srn periphery of this low across Ecntrl and Deep E TX, along an area of weak convergence near the sfc trough, as well as along a weak inverted H925 trough. The short term progs are in general agreement with this convection gradually expanding E across the region today with the weak convergent bndrys, with additional convection farther to the W over Wcntrl TX enhancing convection through the day as a weak shortwave trough, noted on the water vapor imagery over NW TX slowly drifts E near and just S of the Red River through the day, enhancing a W-E shear axis in VC of the I-20 corridor tonight. Have inserted categorical/likely pops this morning across much of E TX into Wrn LA, before expanding these high pops farther E across SE OK/SW AR/remainder of N LA for the afternoon. The convection/cloud cover will also help to taper max temps back this afternoon, with readings only reaching the mid 80s, if that. While this convection should diminish to some extent this evening, the aforementioned shear axis and enhanced PVA should help re- invigorate convection later this evening through the overnight hours across portions of E TX, which should spread farther E into much of N LA late. Thus, chance pops this evening were ramped up to likely across these areas late, with low and mid chance pops elsewhere across extreme NE TX/SW AR. PW's will remain between 2-2.25" today/tonight, with the slow movement/redevelopment contributing to isolated areas of locally heavy rainfall and training which may result in an isolated flooding threat. Did maintain likely/categorical pops going through the morning Tuesday across much of E TX/N LA/extreme Srn AR, with the convection slowly shifting ENE during the afternoon as the primary elevated circulation along the shear axis begins to gradually shift E into SW AR/N LA. Did trend max temps Tuesday near the NBM guidance, but should the convection remain widespread even during the afternoon, these may need to be scaled back a few more degrees in later forecasts. 15 && LONG TERM.../Tuesday Night through Monday/ The persistent weakness in the mid levels of the atmosphere, responsible for the continued high rain chances for the last several days, will be in place for one more day on Wednesday with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. This weakness is forecast to lift out into the Appalachians by Thursday, being helped eastward by and ridge of high pressure aloft that will also expand eastward from the Four Corners Region of the country into the Plains. With the arrival of this ridge axis will be much lower atmospheric moisture in the form of lower PWATS, less in the way of upper forcing and warming lower levels which will be best characterized by hotter afternoon temperatures as we move into the end of the week. Did keep slight chance pops across our extreme northern and eastern zones for Friday given a weak disturbance rounding the ridge axis but given the lower pwats across our region, would not think there would be much in the way of storm coverage. While the center of the upper level 600 dam ridge will remain centered over the Four Corners region through the upcoming weekend, the ridge axis will likely extend far enough into our region from the west to limit anything but very isolated thunderstorm chances that are too limited to mention this far out in the forecast. As we move into the following work week, there are indications that this ridge axis may begin to migrate more eastward into the Plains which would further put a damper on any precipitation chances and further enhance the heat. Speaking of the heat, as our region becomes more under the influence of this ridge axis to our west, look for temperatures to respond accordingly. Highs will climb back into the lower and middle 90s areawide for Thu, middle 90s areawide for Fri with mid to upper 90s for the upcoming weekend, maybe pushing 100 degrees across our western zones for Sun into Mon. Given how wet our soils are, we may be hard pressed to see the mixing down of afternoon dewpoints. The end result will likely be a return to Heat Advisory criteria as early as the end of the work week but especially for the upcoming weekend. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 85 74 85 74 / 80 60 80 40 MLU 89 74 86 73 / 80 50 80 40 DEQ 88 72 87 71 / 60 20 50 20 TXK 87 73 86 73 / 70 40 60 30 ELD 88 73 85 72 / 70 40 60 30 TYR 86 74 86 74 / 80 60 70 40 GGG 86 73 85 73 / 80 70 70 40 LFK 87 75 87 75 / 80 60 60 40 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && 15/13
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Shreveport LA 448 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077- TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-071200- Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette- Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto- Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn- Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp- Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk- Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine- 448 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible once again today across the Four State Region. While an isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, these storms will produce strong wind gusts, frequent cloud to ground lightning and brief heavy downpours. These thunderstorm chances will likely carry over into the evening and overnight hours as well. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue across the Four State Region through at least Wednesday. Again, some of these storms could be strong but widespread severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time. A drying trend should commence Thursday through the upcoming weekend but it will become very hot during this time as well. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed by the end of the week into the weekend for afternoon heat indices meeting or exceeding 105 degrees areawide. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio operators...and storm spotters should not be needed through tonight. Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines. 13
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
852 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0730 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 N HALLSVILLE 32.57N 94.58W
07/05/2020 HARRISON TX COCORAHS
A COCORAHS OBSERVER AND RETIRED NWS EMPLOYEE
REPORTED THAT PAGE CREEK WAS OUT OF ITS
BANKS AND FLOODED PORTIONS OF WALKERS MILL
ROAD NORTH OF HALLSVILLE. HIGH WATER FLOODED
SEVERAL NEARBY FIELDS AND YARDS, AND
SANDBAGS WERE NEEDED TO KEEP THE WATER OUT
OF A HOME. 6.43 INCHES OF RAIN WAS RECORDED
BETWEEN 400-730 AM ON THE 5TH.
&&
15The Shreveport radar (KSHV), 116 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:02 UTC.
3 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flash flooding was reported across several roads throughout the city of Texarkana. Several vehicles were stranded in high water.
Flash flooding was reported at 9th Street and Broad Street near Nix Creek.
Sue Street on the north side of Magnolia was closed due to flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, July 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 893451, 893452, 893453.