Tornadoes and Damaging Winds in Alabama, March 31, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
646 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0339 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020/

Through Wednesday night.

A strong short-wave trough will progress from the lower MS Valley
this morning through the Southeast and then slide off the Atlantic
Coast by late evening. Latest guidance suggest that severe weather
is still probable across the southern portions of the forecast area.
Looking at specific numbers, look for the system to be capable of
~500-1,200 J/kg MLCAPE and 50-60 kts eff. bulk shear. However, the
system still remains a touch separated with the best shear and best
instability. Through the morning hours, the wind shear near the
boundary lifts quickly eastward ahead of more favorable warm sector
instability. Despite this notion, many forecast soundings do suggest
enough (300 to 400 m2/s2) 0-1 km SRH to foster tornadoes in the
event a stronger updraft can establish in proximity to the shear
maxima near the front. All things considered, tornadoes, damaging
winds, and 1 inch hail all appear likely if ingredients come
together at the right time. Highest forecast confidence in severe
weather resides in the southeast portions of Central Alabama, this
morning into the early afternoon. Nonetheless, the severe forecast
remains on track and no major changes were made over previously
advertised.

Once the system moves out this afternoon, CAA will blast the region
and temperatures will fall into the 40s areawide with even a few
upper 30s in the far northern counties. Last time we were in the 40s
across the region was back on March 8th, so it will feel as quite
shock to the body if you get out and about early Wednesday morning.
Temperatures will warm up into the 60s pretty much area-wide with
a few near 70 degrees in the far south. With generally clear
skies, lows will drop into the 40s again Wednesday night into
Thursday morning.

16

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0339 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020/

Thursday through Monday.

On Thursday, a combination of mid-level ridging across the Southeast
and mean 1000-500mb RH's ~35 percent will continue to favor
stable conditions with afternoon highs in the 70s and periodic
sunshine. Upstream of the ridge, a weak 700mb shortwave will
propagate across the area on Friday. Negative omegas over Central
AL suggest there may be enough lift to produce a few light
showers, but a pocket of dry low-level air may prevent much of it
from reaching the ground, so I kept PoPs around 15 percent across
our west. Meanwhile, an upper-level jet will rotate through the
Northern Rockies and produce an elongated area of surface low
pressure across the Midwest with a weak trailing cold front
extending southward into eastern Texas. A widespread area of high
pressure will develop over the northern Plains and force the front
towards the Lower Mississippi Valley while the surface low
flattens across Ontario and Manitoba. The surface boundary will
provide weak support for isolated showers and partly cloudy skies
throughout the weekend. However, the overall coverage will be
limited by weak forcing due to a lack of upper-level support and a
building ridge across the Deep South. Guidance indicates the
aforementioned ridge will once again develop over the Gulf of
Mexico. Our temperatures will largely be influenced by the
aforementioned ridge and associated height rises. Expect to see
highs in the upper 70s to near 80F as we start the new week.
Towards the end of this period, a shortwave embedded in the ridge
will rotate across the area and may provide better chances for
additional rainfall given the return of moist southerly flow.
Trended PoPs upward, but kept chances around 50% since there are
still some timing difference between models.

86

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

Conditions will continue to deteriorate this morning. Rain has
begun to overspread TCL and will be moving in BHM, EET, ANB, ASN
over the next few hours. Looks like the more convective activity
will be across the south (MGM and TOI) late morning into the
afternoon. Look for VFR through the 13 to 14z, then a lowering to
generally MVFR with IFR with the heavier bands of rain. Winds will
be gusty at times as well through 00 to 03z from the north.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain will become widespread this morning as a low pressure system
moves into the area with some thunderstorms across the south. By
midweek, high pressure will produce cooler and drier conditions
across Central Alabama with afternoon RH's ranging from 35 to 45
percent and northerly winds around 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     61  38  63  40  70 / 100  10   0   0   0
Anniston    64  41  64  41  72 / 100  20   0   0   0
Birmingham  64  42  66  44  72 / 100  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  67  43  68  44  74 / 100   0   0   0   0
Calera      67  42  66  43  72 / 100  10   0   0   0
Auburn      72  43  66  43  72 / 100  20   0   0   0
Montgomery  76  45  70  45  75 / 100  10   0   0   0
Troy        79  46  70  44  75 / 100  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
351 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

ALZ011>015-017>050-011200-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
351 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook Through Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across the southern
half of Central Alabama. The main threat area will be generally along
and south of a line from York to Clanton to Alexander City. The threats
will be damaging winds up to 60 mph, quarter size hail, and a tornado.
The threats will begin around 8 am in the west and end by 3 pm in
the east.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
today. Please follow all local, state, and CDC guidelines in regards
to travel.