Hail in Wyoming, July 3, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
519 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2019

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2019

Latest analysis has an upper low over the Pacific Northwest with a
trough digging down the West Coast with weak upper ridging over the
Mississippi Valley region, leaving the western High Plains in a west
southwesterly flow pattern. At the surface, a stationary
boundary/cold front remains draped across southwestern South Dakota
and northwest SD, into eastern North Dakota. Latest satellite trends
shows a CU field over the southern Black Hills, far southwestern SD,
and areas of eastern Perkins and Meade Counties while low clouds
remain in place over the WY Black Hills, northern Black Hills and
southwestern Butte County remain socked in with fog and low clouds.

For this afternoon and tonight, lee cyclogenesis is ongoing along
the lee trough in eastern Wyoming with large-scale forcing ahead of
an approaching shortwave toward the northwestern portion of the
forecast area. Some convective initiation seems imminent across the
current CU fields in eastern WY and western SD, even with the better
flow aloft over the northern half of the forecast area. Should see
storms move off the higher terrain into the forecast area later this
afternoon/early evening as well. With the frontal boundary, steep
lapse rates, MU CAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg, and modest shear, expect
severe storms this afternoon and evening. Primary threat will be
large hail and damaging winds, and transitioning to more of a wind
event later this evening. The bulk of the storms will push east
overnight, but could see more storm activity redeveloping during the
early morning hours.

On Independence Day, could see some morning storms, then clearing
before the next round of storms in the afternoon and evening. Severe
weather will again be possible as strong CAPE and possibly stronger
shear than today is expected.

Overall, this pattern looks to persistent into early next week,
resulting in daily chances of thunderstorms. Some of the storms
during this time will be strong to severe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued At 517 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2019

Strong to severe storms will continue to move east through the
region this evening, with IFR and localized LIFR conditions in
stronger storms. Storms may linger through the night. Behind the
storms, low clouds and patchy fog could develop, especially across
northeastern WY and in/around the Black Hills.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 115 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2019

No changes to the current flash flood watch. PWs are 175% of
average and soils are saturated, especially across northwestern
SD. Expect some heavy rain possibly across southern SD and areas
just east of the Hills. However, with the better forcing further
north, have opted to leave the watch as is and monitor for
possible warnings later this afternoon and evening.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for SDZ001-002-012>014-
     024-025-072-073.

WY...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for WYZ054-056-057-071.

&&

DISCUSSION...MLS
AVIATION...Johnson
HYDROLOGY...MLS

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
257 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2019

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-041300-
Harding-Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-
Northern Black Hills-Northern Foot Hills-Rapid City-
Southern Foot Hills-Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-
Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Haakon-Fall River-
Oglala Lakota-Jackson-Bennett-Mellette-Todd-Tripp-
Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-Southern Meade Co Plains-
Hermosa Foot Hills-Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-
Western Crook-Wyoming Black Hills-Weston-Northeastern Crook-
257 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2019 /357 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western South Dakota and
northeastern Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and heavy
rain are the main severe weather threats, although a couple
tornadoes are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. Severe
thunderstorms are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
748 PM MDT WED JUL 03 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NW SAINT FRANCIS      43.15N 100.91W
07/03/2019  E65 MPH          TODD               SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH WINDS

0715 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 ESE SAINT FRANCIS     43.10N 100.75W
07/03/2019  E60 MPH          TODD               SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1 INCH DIAMETER BRANCHES DOWN

&&

POJORLIE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
801 PM MDT WED JUL 03 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NE PORCUPINE          43.29N 102.27W
07/03/2019  M78 MPH          OGLALA LAKOTA      SD   MESONET

&&

ME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
802 PM MDT WED JUL 03 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 W PARMELEE            43.32N 101.14W
07/03/2019  M50 MPH          TODD               SD   MESONET

&&

ME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
806 PM MDT WED JUL 03 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     FLOOD            5 SW KYLE               43.37N 102.25W
07/03/2019                   OGLALA LAKOTA      SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER ROAD FROM SIXMILE CREEK.

&&

MLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
808 PM MDT WED JUL 03 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0757 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE KADOKA             43.85N 101.48W
07/03/2019  E60 MPH          JACKSON            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
911 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

SDZ047-040245-
Todd SD-
911 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN TODD COUNTY UNTIL 945 PM
CDT...

At 911 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles west of Spring Creek, or 28 miles southwest of Mission, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rosebud, Saint Francis, Parmelee, Spring Creek and Lakeview.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central and southwestern South Dakota.

LAT...LON 4318 10123 4331 10106 4339 10083 4300 10063
      4299 10079 4300 10122
TIME...MOT...LOC 0211Z 237DEG 38KT 4310 10114

Sherburn