Hail in Wisconsin, August 29, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
247 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019

.SHORT TERM...

This Afternoon Into Friday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium To
High.

Low level moisture continues to increase across southern
Wisconsin. Starting to see a little additional development farther
south along the cold front, but nothing too noteworthy at the
moment. Based on dewpoints now cracking 70 in the far southwest
forecast area, there seems to be some pretty good moisture pooling
ahead of the front, with the strong southwest winds.

Given the ample heating ahead of the front, still think there
will be more storm development this afternoon along and ahead of
the front. Instability and shear still suggesting a few storms
could be strong to severe, with wind and hail the main threats.

The front will clear the southeast forecast area early this
evening, bringing an end to the storm chances. A cooler and drier
airmass will push in behind the cold front tonight into Friday,
as high pressure moves into the area. Highs will likely only reach
into the lower 70s tomorrow, but looks like a pleasant day with
mostly sunny skies and lighter winds.

Friday Night Through Sunday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are still showing some uncertainty with where and how much
rain will occur across the region. The NAM and Canadian are now
mostly dry for this period, with the influence of high pressure
moving slowly east across and east Wisconsin. The GFS and ECMWF
continue to bring mainly light QPF into the area Saturday into
Sunday morning, best chances in the far southern and southeastern
parts of the area.

The best upward vertical motion fields will be across central and
northern Illinois, where there is a weak to modest low level jet
nose pointing into that area. The main baroclinic zone with weak
to modest convergence in the low levels also lingers over
northern Illinois.

This will be a battle between the dry influence of the high versus
the moisture and modest upward vertical motion just south of the
area. For now, lowered PoPs and QPF somewhat across the area
during this period. The uncertainty with trends keeps confidence
low to medium for now.

Possible clouds and showers Saturday would keep highs in the upper
60s to around 70. Milder temperatures with a little more sunshine
for Sunday are forecast.

.LONG TERM...

Sunday Night Through Labor Day...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

This period looks relatively quiet, with weak high pressure
passing by to the south and east of the region. Temperatures
should be warming back into the upper 70s to around 80, with more
sunshine.

Monday Night Through Thursday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models have trended toward warm air advection developing over the
area Monday night into Tuesday, before a cold front moves east
through the area Tuesday afternoon and early evening. This would
be our next decent chances for thunderstorms, with warm and humid
conditions expected.

High pressure is generally shown to move through the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday, which should bring dry conditions
and somewhat cooler temperatures. Another low pressure system may
develop in the central Plains Wednesday night into Thursday, with
a warm front approaching the area. More thunderstorm chances may
result during this time.

&&

.AVIATION(21Z TAF UPDATES)...

There will be a chance for storms until early evening as a cold
front moves through the area. Some of the storms may be severe.
Could see some lower visibilities in any moderate to heavy rain.

Breezy southwest winds ahead of the front will flip to the
northwest behind the front this afternoon into early evening, then
ease overnight as high pressure moves in. Quiet weather is
expected Friday under the high.

&&

.MARINE...

Gusty south to southwest winds will continue ahead of a cold this
afternoon. A few gale force gusts will be possible in the north,
with a Gale Warning in effect until early evening. A Small Craft
Advisory is in effect for the same time period today.

High pressure will bring lighter winds to Lake Michigan Friday
into the weekend.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LMZ261-362-364-366-
     563-565-567-868.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for LMZ643>646.

&&

Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine...DDV
Friday Night through Thursday...Wood

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
248 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-302000-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
248 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon And Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to affect southern
Wisconsin through early this evening, as a cold front passes
through the region. Some storms may become severe, producing
large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

Small chances for thunderstorms return next Tuesday and Tuesday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed into early this evening.

LMZ643>646-302000-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
248 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from Sheboygan
Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon And Tonight

Breezy southwest winds with gusts up to 30 knots will linger into
the middle evening hours. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
during this period for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to affect the nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan into early this evening. Some storms may
become severe, producing large hail, damaging winds and an
isolated waterspout.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

Small chances for thunderstorms return next Tuesday and Tuesday
night.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-302000-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
248 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon And Tonight

Gusty southwest winds will continue into early this evening.
Gusts to 35 knots are expected over parts of the northern open
waters of Lake Michigan. A Gale Warning is in effect for this area
into early this evening.

Scattered thunderstorms will affect mainly the central and
southern portions of the open waters of Lake Michigan into early
this evening. Some storms may become severe, producing large
hail, damaging winds and isolated waterspouts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

Small chances for thunderstorms return Monday night into Tuesday
evening.

Wood
www.weather.gov/mkx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
211 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019

WIZ052-291945-
Sheboygan-
211 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN SHEBOYGAN COUNTY...

At 210 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Camp Rokilio
Scout Camp, or near Howards Grove, moving east at 55 mph.

Winds of 40 to 50 mph and penny size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sheboygan, Howards Grove, Elkhart Lake, Haven and Johnsonville.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4382 8816 4389 8816 4389 8774 4385 8773
      4381 8773 4377 8770
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 277DEG 47KT 4388 8793

BOXELL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
239 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019

WIZ051-052-059-060-292015-
Sheboygan-Ozaukee-Washington-Fond Du Lac-
239 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OZAUKEE...SOUTHEASTERN
FOND DU LAC...NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN SHEBOYGAN
COUNTIES...

At 239 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Campbellsport,
or 7 miles northeast of Kewaskum, moving east at 50 mph.

Winds of 30 to 40 mph and penny size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sheboygan, Oostburg, Belgium, Cedar Grove, Random Lake, Cascade,
Adell, Waldo, Silver Creek, Beechwood, Dundee, Boltonville,
Gibbsville, Batavia, Hingham and New Fane.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4357 8779 4350 8780 4350 8804 4355 8827
      4369 8823 4371 8771 4370 8771 4370 8770
      4368 8770
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 279DEG 42KT 4360 8814

BOXELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
243 PM CDT THU AUG 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0221 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNW SHEBOYGAN FALLS   43.77N 87.85W
08/29/2019  M41 MPH          SHEBOYGAN          WI   ASOS

            SHEBOYGAN AIRPORT.

&&