The unsettled, progressive weather pattern continued across eastern Utah during the month of February as numerous winter disturbances moved through. As a result of the wetter than normal conditions the state of the drought improved across the Four Corners.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
The unsettled, progressive weather pattern continued across eastern Utah during the month of February as numerous winter disturbances moved through. As a result of the wetter than normal conditions the state of the drought improved across the Four Corners.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 9:32 PM MST, 2 hours 28 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 932 PM MST Thu Jan 31 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 355 PM MST Thu Jan 31 2019 Another cold morning under clear skies for those higher snow- covered valleys where Gunnison reached a -22 degrees F, Silverton was -16F, Craig was -12F and Vernal was -4F just to name a few. These areas also struggled to warm today only with current temperatures struggling to make it out of the 20s with Gunnison at 9 (high so far of 11). With clear skies and dry weather expected through Friday, went ahead and lowered temperatures in these areas similar to what has been seen today for tonight and Friday. Elsewhere, temperatures are warming up quite nicely, so stuck with temps a few degrees above guidance in these areas (lower snow-free valleys and higher terrain above valley inversions). A low pressure system over southern California is bringing some high cirrus into portions of the Four Corners this evening as the low moves eastward, opens up and weakens as it dives south to the Mexican border. This low will move across southern Arizona and fall apart before it reaches New Mexico tonight through Friday. Only expecting a few high cirrus near the Four Corners along our southern CWA border. The flow shifts to southwest late Friday afternoon and evening with high clouds increasing from the west Friday night ahead of the next system. Due to the potential for high cirrus Friday night into Saturday morning, did not drop the overnight lows as drastically as the last few nights. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 355 PM MST Thu Jan 31 2019 Mid and high level clouds increase from the west Saturday morning into the afternoon with the southwest gradient also increasing. This will lead to a bit of warm air advection and better mixing, resulting in breezy afternoon winds. This is all ahead of a deeper trough of low pressure that will be arriving onto the west coast and moving into the Great Basin by Saturday evening. Precipitation looks to begin over the eastern Utah mountains Saturday evening, but the models all seem to agree on the timing, pushing the better chances of precipitation until after midnight Saturday night. This system is pulling in some deeper moisture with specific humidity values rising to 4 to 5 g/kg ahead of a 95 kt jet. The biggest concern early on is the temperatures and resultant snow levels with this system. H7 temps will be rather mild Saturday night through Sunday morning in the -2C to +1C range. This puts snow levels at the 8000 to 9000 ft level at the onset. H7 winds also increase to 40 to 50 kts, so it will be windy in the early stages of this system. Precipitation will start off as rain in the lower elevations with a mix of rain and snow by late Sunday morning as snow levels lower to around 6500 to 7000 feet down south and 5500 to 6000 feet up north heading into the afternoon. H7 temps by this point will have lowered to -4C down south to -8C up north. There was a little concern with potential for freezing rain in the southern valleys due to the cooler surface temps and warm air aloft, however the latest guidance is indicating low temps near freezing. Due to the breezier conditions and cloud cover expected, thinking temps will be a little too mild at the surface to keep precip rain at the onset. Looking at soundings, the window is very narrow for this potential and precip type is looking like rain Sunday morning, mixing with snow late Sunday morning and changing over in the higher foothills by noon. Something to keep an eye on though based on how cold the surface temperatures are Sunday morning. This low will have a slight negative tilt as it lifts northeast through western Colorado late Sunday morning into the afternoon, moving onto the Front Range by Sunday evening. The flow stays southwest through much of this event. Current snowfall accumulations in the mountains are looking like 5 to 10 inches, so solid advisory amounts as of now. The winds will play a factor in blowing snow and steeper lapse rates in the 7 to 8 degrees C/km range bring the potential for isolated thunderstorms on Sunday. This system is still out towards Day 3 and 4, so still a bit too early for highlites. At this time though, looks like the La Sals and Abajos, San Juans and Grand Mesa are favored for the better snow accumulations due to the southwest favored orographics and the track of this system. Valleys look to remain a bit too warm to really accumulate much with maybe an inch or two at best in the higher foothills and higher valleys. Due to the milder nature, snow will be of the wet, dense variety with snow ratios of about 10 to 1 at best in the mountains. A brief break looks to ensue on Monday before the next system moves through Tuesday. This next system looks much colder with its origins over the Gulf of Alaska, dropping into the Pacific Northwest on Monday and moving through the northern Rockies and northern Great Basin Monday evening before it reaches our area. Some precipitation may start Monday evening over the higher terrain but the bulk of the activity now looks to arrive Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. The cold front will move through late Tuesday afternoon into the early evening at this time, bringing H7 temps of -12C to -16C by Tuesday evening. The upper level jet is stronger with 125 kt jet streak dropping south. H7 winds are in the 40 to 50 kt range ahead of the front as well, so blowing snow a concern still. Snow with this system will be a drier, low density snow with snow ratios of about 15 to 1. This system also looks to bring snow down to valley floors. Drier weather appears to move in Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure builds out west. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 932 PM MST Thu Jan 31 2019 Widespread VFR conditions will continue to prevail across eastern Utah and western Colorado through Friday night. Skies will generally remain clear, apart from some high cirrus streaming over the Four Corners region due to a passing disturbance to the south. Winds will continue to remain light and terrain-driven. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...MDA LONG TERM...MDA AVIATION...MMS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 548 AM MST Thu Jan 31 2019 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-011300- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 548 AM MST Thu Jan 31 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday A warm storm system will bring rain to the lower elevations and snow to the higher elevations Saturday night into Sunday. Another system will move in Monday night into Tuesday with colder air increasing the chances for accumulating snow. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
The extreme (D3) drought conditions across the eastern portion of the zone improved to the moderate (D1) category further north and to the severe (D2) category along the southern border.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Utah in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Utah, February 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 800686.