Drought in Texas, September 17 to 30, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1151 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

.AVIATION...
For the 17/06z TAFs, bands of mid-level clouds will continue to
linger across Deep East Texas and Western Louisiana through the
night. Moist southerly flow should bring low stratus and MVFR
ceilings into this area, including KLFK, for a few hours around
sunrise. Ceilings should quickly lift back into the VFR range by
mid to late morning. With the aid of diurnal instability,
scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop across portions
of Deep East Texas and the Toledo Bend County after 17/17z as a
tropical low in the Gulf of Mexico moves onto the Texas coast.
Uncertainty still exists regarding timing, so only VCTS was
included at KLFK. Additional isolated convection is likely farther
to the northeast, but coverage is too uncertain at any individual
TAF site. Any convection that does develop should slowly
diminish after 18/00z as diurnal instability decreases.

CN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 951 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019/

UPDATE...
Spotty convection from diurnal instability has finally diminished
with the loss of daytime heating. Mostly clear skies should
persist north of Interstate 20, but scattered mid-level clouds
associated with a tropical low in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico
will likely linger through the night across Deep East Texas and
the Toledo Bend Country of Western Louisiana. Temperatures have
been cooling pretty much right on schedule, and the forecast looks
to be on track for the remainder of tonight.

No updates are anticipated.

CN

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019/

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday Night/

The heat goes on for a few more days before notable changes begin
to take shape later this week. The upper level ridge axis will
stay anchored just to our NE through Tuesday with high temperatures
pushing the mid to upper 90s this afternoon and again on Tuesday.
For this evening, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across mainly our far southern zones as the upper low drifting
west across the northern Gulf of Mexico continues to induce some
convection inland across southern and central Louisiana. This
activity should end around sunset with overnight lows dropping
into the lower to mid 70s.

Convection associated with the Gulf low will likely expand a bit
farther north on Tuesday, but temperatures will remain quite hot
with mainly lower to mid 90s across the region. The increasing
humidity will also result in heat index values in the lower 100s,
but remaining just below heat advisory criteria.

/19/

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday/

Noticeable changes made to the extended package, having much to do
with the remnants of an upper level low (with some tropical
characteristics)which by 12z Wed, should have moved inland somewhere
across the Upper Southeast Texas Coast. Models over the last 24
hours have been trending a little further north and east with the
remnants of this feature which if these trends continue, would
result in greater impacts across our western half through the middle
and end of the work week in the form of higher rain chances.

For now, have increased pops in this Wed thru Fri timeframe with
likely pops warranted across our western third through much of this
timeframe but most noticeable Thu and Fri. The ECMWF has been
depicting for the last couple days the precipitation in association
with this disturbance flaring up across a larger area with the aid
of daytime destabilization and precipitation contracting closer to
the mid level core overnight. This is quite often what occurs with
these type of hybrid systems after landfall and thus, we will need
to carefully monitor the core of this upper level trough through the
upcoming work week. For this forecast, put more weight towards the
12z ECMWF which suggests the core of the low will remain just west
of our western most CWA. Just a slight shift further north and east
would put more of our southwest and western locations under a
heavier rainfall threat such as the LFK and TYR areas and vicinity.

Needless to day, lowered daytime temps a pretty good bit given the
increased rain chances Wed thru Fri...especially across our
southwest half but made little if any big changes to NBM overnight
low temperature output.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  97  73  92 /  10  10   0  30
MLU  73  98  72  96 /   0  10   0  20
DEQ  70  96  71  93 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  72  96  72  92 /   0  10   0  20
ELD  70  98  71  94 /   0   0   0  20
TYR  73  96  73  90 /  10  20   0  50
GGG  73  96  72  92 /  10  20   0  40
LFK  73  93  73  86 /  10  40  10  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

09/05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
431 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-170945-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
431 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Heat index values will exceed 100 degrees this afternoon across
portions of the region, so caution should be exercised if working
or playing outdoors. Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Unseasonably hot weather will continue, with heat index values
likely exceeding 100 degrees in many locations through midweek.
Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will be increasingly possible
Tuesday and beyond, as a tropical disturbance moves across East
Texas. No other hazardous weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will not be needed through tonight.

12