Hail in Texas, May 8, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
647 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

.AVIATION...
Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move
south out of the Texas Panhandles through the evening hours.
Conditions should deteriorate to MVFR category but there's a low
risk that we could see IFR at just about any terminal for a few
hours either side of sunrise. Given the stout winds overnight and
northerly winds, would expect the ceilings to be the causative
agent for lower flight categories.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 241 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level trough covers much of the western CONUS this afternoon
resulting in southwest flow aloft. This evening an unseasonably cool
front will move through the South Plains advecting much cooler air
into the area. As a result cloudy and cool days can be expected
tomorrow and Friday, with high temperatures both days running about
20 degrees below normal. As an aside, if temperatures fall into the
upper 50s Friday rather than the low 60s, we could break the record
for lowest maximum temp on Friday for KLBB.

Tonight, as the front moves through the FA an upper level short wave
will simultaneously move across the area. The upper level support
will combine with residual surface moisture and the front to support
isolated rain showers and thunderstorms over the extreme southern
Texas Panhandle and the northern Rolling and South Plains. There
could be just enough instability (MUCAPES of ~1000 K/kg and 0-6 km
shear of ~40kt) that some storms could become strong and produce
hail and strong wind gusts. The only concern at this point would be
the low level cooling inhibiting instability. Thus, we will leave
lower chances of storms in the forecast but, this could be upgraded
as the front pushes into the region.

Friday, another upper level low will develop off the coast of
California returning our upper level flow to SWRLY. Friday through
Monday, as the upper low digs and then slowly moves northeasterly,
dynamic lifting and upper level cooling over the FA will increase.
This will result in increased chances for rain showers and
thunderstorms each day. Monday appears to be our best chance for
severe weather as guidance shows the dryline sharpening over the
NM/TX border.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

99/99/26

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
604 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

TXZ021>044-090500-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
604 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A couple strong to briefly severe thunderstorms are possible this
evening, generally from the southern Panhandle into the northern
South Plains. Strong winds near 60 mph and small hail could
accompany some of these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability of significant hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected this evening.