Tornadoes and Flash Flooding in Texas, May 1 to 3, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1243 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Ceilings will continue improving over the next few hours as the
cloud cover lifts and breaks up. This will allow for conditions to
become more favorable for scattered thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon and evening. Then, most of the thunderstorm activity
should shut off just after dark. MVFR ceilings will return to
KJCT, KSOA, and KBBD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1052 AM CDT Wed May 1 2019/

UPDATE...

Latest short term models, such as the HRR and NAMNEST, indicate
showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly this afternoon. The
best location, again based on data from these two models, for
afternoon thunderstorms is mainly along and southeast of a line
from Abilene to Sonora. Thus, just updated our morning forecast to
lower PoPs for the remainder of this morning. Also, confidence for
exactly where and when thunderstorms may develop this afternoon is
not high; therefore, a more conservative 50 percent chance looks
best. Nevertheless, if thunderstorms do develop, the potential for
large hail and damaging winds continues this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 648 AM CDT Wed May 1 2019/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

MVFR stratus has spread across West Central Texas this morning.
Expect cigs to gradually improve to VFR this afternoon. Showers
and thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon, but timing and
coverage remains uncertain. Will maintain VCTS at all terminals,
with amendments likely this afternoon once convection develops.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 412 AM CDT Wed May 1 2019/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Challenging forecast on tap for West Central Texas this afternoon,
with the potential once again for strong to severe thunderstorms
across most of the area.

Southwest flow aloft will persist across the region today, with a
weak shortwave or two traversing the area this afternoon. At the
surface, a dryline will sharpen across the eastern Permian Basin
nearing our western CWA border by the late afternoon. A residual
outflow boundary from an ongoing thunderstorm complex over Oklahoma
will lie somewhere in the vicinity of northwest Texas or the Red
River Valley. Global model guidance and convective allowing models
are not in much agreement regarding evolution of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. However, any discrete
supercells that can initiate along the dry line and/or residual
outflow boundary will have the potential to become quickly severe
given SBCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/KG along with very steep mid
level rates. A damaging wind threat will also exist given the
potential for storms to merge into multi-cellular clusters and/or
linear convective segments...which is hinted at by several of the
high resolution models. Things should wind down by the late evening
hours, with storms potentially lingering across the eastern half of
the forecast area before exiting the CWA.

It will muggy once again tomorrow, with dewpoints in the upper 60s
and lower 70s. Highs will mainly be in the upper 70s across the east
to the mid 80s out west, with overnight lows in the 60s.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)

Models continue to struggle with the details of the showers and
storms, with much of it dependent on the mesoscale features such
as the cold front and the location of potential outflow
boundaries. Models suggest that the weak front will sag south of
I-20 on Thursday afternoon and then close to I-10 on Friday
afternoon. This will be at least one of the primary foci for
convective development. Given the unstable air mass in place,
areas along the front look to be the best areas to place the
highest POP forecasts, with the best chances sagging south from
the Concho Valley and Heartland on Thursday into the I-10 corridor
for Friday. Confidence is relatively low however, with convection
today and tonight likely to generate additional outflow boundaries
as well have an effect on the overall movement of the front
itself. Upper level trough axis passes on Friday and this will
likely produce the most widespread shower and storm activity
wherever it ends up developing.

Drier conditions return for the weekend, at least for most areas.
However, approach of the next storm system into California will
once again produce southwest flow and the arrival of several
shortwaves for early next week. Shower and storm chances return.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 64  80  62  76 /  20  30  40  50
San Angelo 	 65  85  61  81 /  20  40  40  50
Junction 	 67  85  62  81 /  30  40  50  70
Brownwood 	 64  81  61  75 /  30  40  60  60
Sweetwater 	 63  78  61  76 /  10  30  30  40
Ozona      	 65  82  60  79 /  20  40  40  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

41

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
515 AM CDT Wed May 1 2019

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-021015-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
515 AM CDT Wed May 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening across all of West Central Texas. Large hail,
damaging winds, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will be
the main hazards with these storms. However, an isolated tornado
cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through Friday. A
few storms may be strong to severe. Large hail and damaging winds
are the primary hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
840 AM CDT WED MAY 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     HAIL             NOLAN                   32.27N 100.24W
04/23/2019  E1.50 INCH       NOLAN              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
108 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

TXZ099-011900-
Throckmorton TX-
108 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN THROCKMORTON COUNTY
UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

At 107 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Millers Creek Reservoir, or 15 miles southeast of Munday, moving
north at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Throckmorton County, including the following locations... Us-
183 Near The Throckmorton-Baylor County Line.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
west central Texas.

LAT...LON 3328 9920 3330 9947 3340 9947 3340 9914
TIME...MOT...LOC 1807Z 196DEG 15KT 3336 9937

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
117 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

TXZ098-011900-
Haskell TX-
117 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL HASKELL COUNTY UNTIL 200
PM CDT...

At 116 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Haskell, moving north at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Weinert around 200 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Us-
277 Near The Haskell-Knox County Line.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
west central Texas.

LAT...LON 3339 9947 3304 9966 3309 9989 3340 9985
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 196DEG 15KT 3314 9977