Tornadoes and Hail in Texas, June 22 to 23, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
626 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

.AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs...
Light to moderate east surface winds expected this evening with
VFR conditions prevailing.  Scattered thunderstorms expected at
northern terminals between 03z and 12z Sunday.  Cold front
arrives late tonight between 09z and 12z, with surface winds
shifting to north and northeast.  MVFR ceilings expected at
northern terminals with frontal passage, persisting through around
16z.  VFR conditions expected through the afternoon on Sunday.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 320 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019/

SHORT TERM (through tonight)...

Wind shift line associated with cold front has remained over far
southeast Texas Panhandle for the past few hours, running
southwest to northeast across Collingsworth County. Baroclinic
zone however, lies about 40 miles to its northwest, with
temperatures in the lower- 80s in close proximity to lower-90s.
Airmass over eastern sections remains very unstable, with surface
based CAPEs of 1000 to 2500 J/kg noted at this time. Shear values
of 30 to 55 kt are overhead, with the higher values in the
northwest.

A shortwave trof arriving from the southwest will help
instability be released this afternoon and this evening, with
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms developing. Evolution of
frontal boundary expected to be somewhat complex. Falling
pressures over eastern New Mexico expected to cause low-level
winds to trend to east and southeast this evening. Low-level jet
of 30 to 45 knots expected to set up this evening, providing
additional moisture and inflow. Next complicating factor will be
cold front entering northwest part of forecast area around
midnight, providing another focusing mechanism for thunderstorms.
Have increased pops across Oklahoma Panhandle late tonight with
this feature, also adding mention of heavy rain. Expect front to
move through most of the forecast area by sunrise Sunday.

Cockrell

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...

Lingering convection may be ongoing to start Sunday, but chances
are storms will be east of the area after ~7am. Given this
departure time, the atmosphere may have enough time to recover
later in the afternoon. This is all contingent also on any stalled
boundary or possible outflow boundaries around eastern parts of
the Panhandles from exiting convection. We may get convection
going again late Sunday afternoon to early evening.

Sunday, an upper level wave will be transitioning through eastern
Colorado and into the Central Plains. Placement of the vorticity
max may result in better precipitation chances east of the
forecast area. However, with the surface trough and possible
boundary/boundaries setting up across eastern parts of the
forecast area we may have some convection for mainly eastern parts
of the Panhandles. With an associated surface low developing in
western parts of the Central Plains, our northern zones may also
have some thunderstorms. Low chances overall for precipitation,
but nonetheless severe weather will be possible. Better chances
will be for east/southeastern parts of the Texas Panhandle near
the "better" instability. Bulk shear values around 50-60 knots
will be plenty to make up for regarding lower end MLCAPE values
around 1000-1500 J/kg (higher with the NAM though) late
afternoon/early evening when the cap erodes.

Monday we transition to zonal flow before a ridge starts to build
in over the region. Placement of the ridge will make it possible
for small impulses to ride over the northern periphery of the
broad anticyclonic flow. This may result in at least small chances
for thunderstorms as we reach peak heating late afternoon to
early evening each day after Monday. Storms may very well be
ordinary pulse type thunderstorms as we reach peak heating.
Overall, chances are low at this time for precipitation, but given
the time of year we cannot rule out at least some isolated severe
weather in the extended.

Guerrero

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                60  85  54  85  61 /  20  10  10   0   5
Beaver OK                  59  78  52  84  60 /  70  20  20   0   5
Boise City OK              54  74  47  81  55 /  50  20  10   0   5
Borger TX                  62  85  54  88  63 /  30  10  10   0   5
Boys Ranch TX              59  85  53  87  61 /  20  10  10   0   5
Canyon TX                  59  88  54  87  60 /  10  10  10   0   5
Clarendon TX               66  87  58  84  63 /  30  10  10   0   5
Dalhart TX                 56  79  48  83  57 /  30  10   5   0   5
Guymon OK                  57  77  49  84  58 /  60  20  10   0   5
Hereford TX                58  88  54  87  61 /  10  10  10   0   5
Lipscomb TX                62  82  55  86  63 /  40  20  20   0   5
Pampa TX                   61  83  54  84  62 /  30  10  10   0   5
Shamrock TX                66  87  59  85  63 /  40  20  20   0   5
Wellington TX              68  91  61  86  64 /  40  20  20   5   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

03/16

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
324 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-230830-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
324 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible across central and eastern parts of
the combined Panhandles this afternoon. Chances increase to the
north later tonight. Thunderstorms could be severe with large
hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms are also possible late Sunday, and each day Tuesday
through Friday for late afternoon to early evening time periods.
At this time, chances for thunderstorms reaching severe limits
will be isolated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed today and tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
849 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

TXZ018-019-230230-
Donley TX-Armstrong TX-
849 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN ARMSTRONG AND WEST
CENTRAL DONLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 849 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles east of Wayside, or 19 miles north of Silverton, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Goodnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3511 10126 3498 10091 3475 10111 3475 10138
TIME...MOT...LOC 0149Z 208DEG 29KT 3476 10126

Ward