Flash Flooding and Flood in Texas, June 2, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1231 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Line of strong thunderstorms southeast of Amarillo could affect
KABI as soon at 9Z as it moves southeast. Isolated storms were
developing ahead of the storm, so added VCTS at KABI earlier at
7Z. Temporary IFR visibilities in rain and MVFR ceilings likely as
the storms move through. Storms could possibly affect KSJT,
mainly after 12Z, but confidence not high, so left out of
terminal. Otherwise MVFR stratus returns 11-12Z in southern
terminals and KSJT mid morning. Ceilings should dissipate by 16Z,
but mid level clouds will likely remain.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 916 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019/

UPDATE...
Sent out a quick update to increase PoPs across much of the
northern and eastern Big Country as thunderstorms move southeast
across the region. This activity is forecast to move east of the
area and weaken over the next 1 to 2 hours. Additional convection
has developed across the Panhandle.. A few of the CAMs move this
convection south and east into the Big Country after 1 AM, so have
increased PoPs slightly across these areas. Some of this
convection could make it into the northern Concho Valley around
daybreak, so expanded slight chance PoPs south into portions of
the Concho Valley and Heartland after midnight. Otherwise, no
other changes are needed at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 658 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019/

AVIATION...
/0Z TAFS/

Thunderstorms over northwest Texas continue to develop and move
southward near an stationary front and retreating dryline. Storms
should decrease after sunset, but still can not rule out a few
storms over the I-20 area overnight. Have continued with VCTS for
KABI overnight. Confidence is lower that storms could survive all
the way south to KSJT, so will not include in TAFS at this time.
Otherwise, MVFR ceilings expected to redevelop later tonight and
dissipate by mid morning tomorrow. Winds generally southeast at 20
kt or less, except stronger and gusty near thunderstorms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 238 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Early this afternoon, a shortwave ridge was in place across much of
West Central Texas.  Skies were partly cloudy, with temperatures
around 90 degrees.  A cold front was located across the Central
Plains, while a complex of thunderstorms was diving southward
through Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle.  This complex was
producing an outflow boundary which is expected to progress
southward into the Big Country later this afternoon and evening. New
showers and thunderstorms were initiating along and ahead of this
boundary, as they were helped along by a weak impulse going over the
top of the ridge.  For tonight, a few lingering showers and
thunderstorms are possible, but should diminish after sunset.
However, a couple of the hi-resolution models are showing a new
cluster of thunderstorms forming over the Texas Panhandle, then
dropping southeast across the Big Country by late tonight. Multiple
runs of the HRRR model have performed well thus far and indicate
this scenario unfolding. As a result, PoPS have been increased after
midnight for areas along and north of Interstate 20. Elsewhere,
clouds should increase across the entire region overnight as the
boundary layer decouples.

For tomorrow, conditions should start off similar to Saturday
morning, with lows around 70 and mostly cloudy skies. Clouds should
clear out by mid morning with ample sunshine.  The 500mb ridge is
expected to hold firm across the region. By tomorrow afternoon, a
few shortwave impulses will start to intrude from the west over the
Edwards Plateau and western Concho Valley. CAPE values of 2000-
3000J/kg, and LIs of -7 degrees C should give ample opportunity for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop by mid afternoon.
Large hail and locally damaging winds can be expected. Otherwise,
high temperatures should once again reach the upper 80s to around 90.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Upper level ridge extending across West Central Texas on Sunday
evening will gradually shift east through the start of the week,
placing West Central Texas in better southwest flow aloft. With
the deep upper trough over the western US moving slowly to the
east as well, rain chances will increase across the area. As the
trough finally approaches by Tuesday night and Wednesday, models
show convection becoming more widespread. Upper trough passes to
the east by Thursday or Thursday night, and will take the rain
chances with it. Strong upper level ridge and hotter temperatures
look to be arriving for next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 70  85  68  82 /  20  20  40  50
San Angelo 	 70  86  68  84 /  20  20  30  50
Junction 	 70  88  71  84 /  10  10  20  50
Brownwood 	 70  87  69  82 /  10  10  30  50
Sweetwater 	 69  83  68  81 /  30  30  30  50
Ozona      	 69  82  68  81 /  20  30  30  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

99/99/04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
248 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-022000-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
248 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible west of a Brownwood to Sonora
line this afternoon and evening. A line of thunderstorms may also
develop along and north of Interstate 20 late this evening and
overnight. A few storms may be severe, with large hail and
damaging winds being the main hazards. Heavy rainfall may cause
localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorms will be possible across West Central Texas Sunday through
the middle of next week. Some of the storms may be severe, especially
next Tuesday and Wednesday. The main hazards will be large hail and
damaging winds. Heavy rainfall may cause localized flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and tomorrow.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
116 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019

TXZ049-098-099-113-020730-
Haskell TX-Throckmorton TX-Fisher TX-Jones TX-
116 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HASKELL...JONES...FISHER AND
THROCKMORTON COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

At 111 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong line of
thunderstorm from Justiceburg to Jayton to Benjamin...moving
southeast at 35 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  O'brien around 145 AM CDT.
  Rule and Rochester around 150 AM CDT.
  Weinert around 205 AM CDT.
  Haskell around 210 AM CDT.
  Rotan, Stamford and Throckmorton around 230 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Funston, Us-183 Near
The Throckmorton-Baylor County Line, Hitson, Lusk, Tuxedo, Lake Fort
Phantom Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 9896 3297 9962 3253 9962 3254 10066
      3294 10065 3297 10062 3296 9999 3340 9999
      3339 9895
TIME...MOT...LOC 0611Z 290DEG 29KT 3341 10020

mkd

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
256 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019

TXZ114-020845-
Shackelford TX-
256 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SHACKELFORD COUNTY UNTIL 345 AM
CDT...

At 255 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking Doppler radar was tracking
a line of strong thunderstorms from Lueders to Fort Griffin, or 11
miles north and northwest of Albany, moving southeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Ibex around 315 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Us-
180 Near The Shackelford-
Stephens County Line, Big Country Baptist Assembly and Mccarty Lake.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 AM CDT for
west central Texas.

LAT...LON 3283 9909 3253 9910 3252 9909 3253 9961
      3294 9961 3295 9909
TIME...MOT...LOC 0755Z 306DEG 38KT 3288 9927

mkd

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
300 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019

TXZ099-020845-
Throckmorton TX-
300 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THROCKMORTON COUNTY UNTIL 345 AM
CDT...

At 259 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms from
Elbert to Woodson to Fort Griffin, or 10 miles southeast of
Throckmorton, moving southeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of Throckmorton
County, including the following locations... The Intersection Of Us-
183 And Us-283 and The Intersection Of Us-283 And Ranch Road 209.

LAT...LON 3298 9895 3297 9947 3340 9913 3340 9896
TIME...MOT...LOC 0759Z 296DEG 33KT 3305 9910

mkd