A mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) resulting from Sunday night storms across West-Central Texas generated more showers and storms across western portions of North Texas on Monday. Heavy rain led to flooding in some areas.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
A mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) resulting from Sunday night storms across West-Central Texas generated more showers and storms across western portions of North Texas on Monday. Heavy rain led to flooding in some areas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 8, 12:04 PM CST, 56 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 104 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019 .AVIATION... /18Z TAFs/ Somewhat challenging near-term aviation forecast facing the 18Z cycle. An outflow boundary is very apparent on TDFW/TDAL data, currently stretching from near KDTO to KFTW as of 1750Z. This boundary will cause a wind shift to the W/NW at most sites, with flow up to 10-12 kt. Winds may maintain a west or even slight northwest component for an hour or two, before probably returning to a more south or southwesterly direction. Some potential exists for outflow to force a few showers or thunderstorms near Metroplex airports prior to 20Z, but visible satellite trends and AMDAR soundings suggest dry air aloft should keep this potential too low to move VCTS timing forward. More likely timing may be late afternoon into early evening, as convection to the west may slowly encroach on the Metroplex. This potential seems relatively uncertain as well, though, given lingering subsidence aloft. Any convection likely diminishes after 00Z, leaving southerly flow around 10 kt and VFR conditions at all airports. Picca && .UPDATE... /Issued 1100 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019/ A rather persistent zone of showers and thunderstorms has focused across western North Texas this morning. These cells originally seemed to form along the southern flank of a weak impulse lifting into Oklahoma, but now appear to have generated their own MCV (seen in KDYX velocity data over Jack Co). While reflectivity and precipitation rates have decreased somewhat, this circulation will likely continue to focus rainfall across the Big Country and adjacent areas into early afternoon. Additionally, PW values upwards of 1.75-2" and deep updrafts are likely enhancing rainfall rates. While widespread flash flooding is not expected, we will have to continue to watch for training cells, given slow storm motions. As for the grids, increased PoPs and decreased high temps where this MCV is focused. Picca && .UPDATE... /Issued 706 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019/ I have added 20-30% coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms to our far western and northwestern counties for the morning hours, as our MCV between Wichita Falls and Childress trudges slowly east. I do not expect strong or severe storms this morning across that area, but lightning strikes and localized, brief heavy downpours are expected with this activity. More scattered storms, some strong, will be possible this afternoon generally northwest of a line from Paris, to Dallas, to Killeen. Heat index values will rise to between 100 and 105 degrees across our eastern counties later this afternoon. 05/ && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 324 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019/ /Through Tonight/ Another day of challenging, mid-Summer convective forecasting as we monitor both a hybrid mid level shortwave/MCV centered near Childress in Northwest Texas this morning and a stalling old outflow boundary extending from near Breckenridge/Cisco, to Decatur, to near Gainesville. CAMs apparently are trying to resolve these features as well and seem to change on a run-to-run basis on how development and propagation of mainly afternoon-early evening storms will evolve. Such is the life of a meteorologist across the Southern tier of the U.S. this time of year. As areas west of I-35 recover from outflow and stabilization from yesterday's storms west of US 281, I plan on keeping the morning dry sans a rogue shower or brief thunderstorms along the immediate Red River Valley. As lift from the shortwave over Northwest Texas interacts with rich moisture, instability derived from strong mid-Summer heating in the afternoon, and a low-level focus of our old surface boundary meandering somewhere west-northwest of DFW proper, I expected scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop through the afternoon hours and toward the I-35/35W corridors. Areas further east closer to our mid level ridge center and stronger subsidence should remain mostly dry. With more moist mid- level environment, I do not expect more than thunderstorms of the general variety, though with such intense mid-Summer heating one can never rule out some localized and brief stronger storms capable of gusty outflow winds, more frequent lightning, and heavy downpours and brief minor flooding as slow motions of afternoon storm activity is driven more by propagation versus strong steering currents aloft. Highs will once again soar mostly into the lower- mid 90s, though an isolated reading in the upper 90s cannot be ruled out across any one location not affected by storms or associated anvil cloud debris. I will linger mostly isolated storms chances early this evening and through sunset along and just west of I-35, but further east along the Red River Valley where enough forcing closer to the mid level disturbance help to maintain a bit of activity possibly through and a little after sunset. Otherwise, variably cloudy skies across the northwest will transition to mostly clear skies across the southeast counties as residual anvil debris lingers across the northwest overnight tonight into sunrise Tuesday. Low temperatures will be a tad tricky and dependent on earlier rainfall and outflow boundaries. For the most part lows will be in the 70s, with warmer temperatures occurring in the typical heat- island areas of larger metropolitan areas. South winds 10 to 15 mph will be the general rule, though certainly more variable and gusty in and near any thunderstorms later today and this evening. 05/ && .LONG TERM... /Issued 324 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019/ /Tuesday Onward/ Overall, the next week will be hot, with a few thunderstorm chances late Wednesday into Thursday. The hot temperatures will increase the risk of heat related illnesses, therefore, special consideration must be taken to prevent injury during this period of above normal temperatures. Tuesday and most of Wednesday is expected to remain precipitation- free as a ridge of high pressure begins to dominate our sensible weather across the region. Temperatures are expected to range from the mid 90s to around 100 degrees, as subsident air helps to keep much of the sky clear. Heat index values will also be quite high, ranging from around 105 to 110 during peak heating hours. The center of the upper level high will position itself across the Four Corners region, leading to a gradual transition to northerly flow aloft Wednesday night into Thursday. With northerly flow aloft in place, a shortwave is expected to dive southward across West Texas late Wednesday night. The combination of the weak shortwave and the presence of a TUTT low across South Texas will likely be sufficient lift to generate scattered thunderstorms west of the I-35 corridor. There will be continued precipitation chances on Thursday, as the northwesterly flow aloft aids in the transport of weak ripples into the Southern Plains. Guidance is developing thunderstorms generally south of the I-20 corridor, where better moisture will be in place. There remains uncertainties as to the coverage of showers and storms in the afternoon, as they will likely be driven by small scale features. Any convection would likely dissipate overnight as daytime heating comes to an end. Of note beginning Thursday will be the slightly lower heat index values due to the north/northeasterly flow that will be in place. This will help lower dew points slightly, and in turn, lower the heat index values into the 100-105 range. Much lower confidence begins as we move into the weekend forecast as weather models struggle to resolve an area of energy expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico from the Florida Panhandle. It is yet too early to dive into the specifics of what each model is depicting given the spectrum of possible solutions. This piece of tropical energy will continue to be monitored for any possible impacts to the North and Central Texas region in the coming days. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 95 79 97 79 99 / 30 20 10 5 5 Waco 95 77 98 77 98 / 20 10 5 5 5 Paris 92 75 94 76 94 / 20 30 5 5 10 Denton 95 78 96 78 98 / 40 20 10 5 5 McKinney 94 77 95 78 98 / 20 20 10 5 5 Dallas 95 80 97 79 99 / 20 20 10 5 5 Terrell 94 77 96 78 99 / 10 10 5 5 5 Corsicana 93 75 96 76 95 / 5 0 5 5 5 Temple 94 76 97 76 97 / 20 10 5 5 5 Mineral Wells 89 75 99 76 98 / 50 20 5 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 11
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 652 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-091200- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 652 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Thunderstorm chances will return today and continue through sunset northwest of a line from Paris, to Dallas, to Killeen and Temple. A few strong storms will be capable of gusty downburst winds, more frequent lightning strikes, and brief very heavy rainfall and minor flooding .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Low thunderstorm chances return to areas west of Interstate 35 Wednesday night, then across Central Texas on Thursday. Severe weather is not anticipated. High temperatures will continue increasing this week. Heat index values ranging between 102 to 110 degrees will become common each afternoon from Tuesday through Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Very limited spotter activation may be requested along and northwest of a line from Paris, to Dallas, to Killeen line this afternoon through sunset this evening.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
113 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019
TXZ115-081900-
Stephens TX-
113 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STEPHENS COUNTY UNTIL 200 PM
CDT...
At 112 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
cluster near Gunsight, or 7 miles south of Breckenridge, moving
northeast at 35 mph.
Winds of up to 45 mph and very heavy rainfall will be possible with
this storm cluster.
Locations impacted include...
Breckenridge, Necessity and Gunsight.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Fort Worth.
&&
LAT...LON 3275 9909 3296 9870 3295 9858 3252 9858
3252 9910
TIME...MOT...LOC 1812Z 234DEG 29KT 3265 9889
BainThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Emergency management reported a bridge covered by water and possibly washed out along Halsell Ranch Road approximately 1.5 miles west of FM 4 north of the city of Graford, TX.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 842756.