Hail and Damaging Winds in Ohio, August 18, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
400 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

...Scattered Thunderstorms Again Later Today...Isolated Strong
to Severe Possible...

.SYNOPSIS...
At the surface a stationary boundary located just north of the
lake will linger near the area over the next several days. A
series of weak troughs will move along this feature bringing on
and off chances for storms through the middle of this week. A
cooler and drier weather pattern will follow for the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
The main challenge with the forecast is the timing of
convection, the evolution of convection, and the severe weather
potential later today. The short term guidance and models have
been struggling to capture the timing and overall progression of
storm development in this westerly flow with individual impulses
riding along the flow and interacting with a stalled frontal
boundary just north of the area. We are seeing one impulse
moving across western Ohio early this morning with a cluster or
strong storms. Models show this to continue to develop clusters
of storms throughout the morning across northern Ohio as it
tracks towards the east-northeast. It may eventually make it
into northwest Pennsylvania by 14z this morning.

The main show we will be watching will be the next piece of
energy moving out of the Midwest into lower Michigan by this
afternoon. High-res models indicate a better potential for
organized storms developing across our northwestern area with either
a squall line or broken line of storms. Thermodynamics will be
better this afternoon for a few severe storms with large hail up
to quarter size and damaging wind gusts up to 65 mph. An
isolated brief tornado threat can't be ruled out but the
potential is very low. The storms will likely weaken by or after
00z this evening.

There is low confidence on how the convection plays out for the
rest of tonight. Some models continue another round of
convection developing near the lake by 06z tonight and other
models keep the weather relatively quiet for the rest of the
night. Models do show another broken line of convection
developing Monday afternoon across northern Ohio into northwest
Pennsylvania.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The surface cold front will make little progress southeast through
our forecast area and slow down to a east-west oriented stationary
front somewhere over our forecast area on Tuesday. The airmass south
of the boundary will be favorable for thunderstorms, with dew point
in the low 70s and temperatures expected to rise to the mid to upper
80s. MUCAPE will be around 2000 to 3000 J/kg. Wind shear is not
expected to be very high, with only 15 to 25 knots of deep layer
shear present on Tuesday. Am expecting disorganized convection to
develop along and south of the stationary front with minor threats
of severe weather and flooding if there is training of convection.
Following Tuesday's convection, the stationary front is expected to
lift north as a warm front as low pressure develops over the Midwest
on Tuesday and propagates northeast across the Great Lakes and into
Ontario by 12Z Wednesday. There will be potential for severe weather
on Wednesday but it depends a lot on the timing of the cold front.
Deep layer shear of 30 to 35 knots will allow for more organized
convection to develop and if the cold front moves through our area
in the evening, then there is potential for severe weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will slowly build in from the northwest on Thursday
and will be situated over our area on Friday. The airmass will be
characterized by cooler and drier conditions with high temperatures
in the mid to upper 70s and dew points in the upper 50s. High
pressure will move on to our east on Saturday, which will induce
warm southerly advection, though still keeping the drier air intact.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Mostly VFR conditions can be expected during the next 24 to 30
hours with the exception around any scattered convection that
impacts a TAF location. The best chance for brief drops in
ceilings and visibilities will be in the mid to late afternoon.
We have PROB30 groups covering this potential. Isolated strong
convection can't be ruled out. Mostly quiet weather is expected
again tonight. Winds will remain south to southwesterly 5 to 11
knots. Isolated gusty and erratic winds can be possible near
any storm as well.

OUTLOOK...Intervals of non-VFR possible primarily with
thunderstorms possible Monday and again on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally west to southwest flow will persist over the lake through
Monday morning with 5 to 10 knot winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots
by Sunday evening. A cold front will move southeast across the lake
on Monday afternoon, slowing down and becoming a west-east oriented
stationary front just south of the lake Monday night into Tuesday.
This will cause westerly winds on Monday morning to veer to easterly
winds by Tuesday morning. Easterly winds are only expected to be
around 5 knots or so through Tuesday. This stationary front will
lift as a warm front Tuesday night, causing winds to veer to
southerly Wednesday night and then to southwesterly by Wednesday
morning. Another cold front is expected to move east across the lake
on Wednesday afternoon, causing winds to veer more to the north by
Wednesday night. Right now our forecast calls for 10 to 15 knots of
northerly winds on Wednesday night through Thursday. However, with a
warm lake and cold air advection, there's a good chance winds could
overperform and thus result in higher waves. Wave heights will near
Small Crafty Advisory criteria Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Griffin
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Saunders

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
355 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-190800-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-Lucas-Wood-
Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-
Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-
Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
355 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible this afternoon
and evening across northern Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania. The
best potential for severe weather will be across far northwest Ohio
between 2 pm and 7 pm this afternoon. Large hail up to quarter size
and damaging wind gusts up to 65 mph will be the main threats. An
isolated tornado threat can't be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
338 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

OHZ017-180845-
Hancock-
338 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HANCOCK COUNTY...

At 337 AM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Pandora to near Waynesfield. Movement was
east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Findlay, Fostoria, Bluffton, McComb, Arlington, Arcadia, Rawson,
Vanlue, Van Buren, Mount Blanchard, Benton Ridge, Jenera, Mount Cory
and Williamstown.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4117 8388 4116 8342 4106 8341 4100 8342
      4099 8346 4095 8346 4095 8348 4091 8348
      4090 8351 4082 8352 4082 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 0737Z 247DEG 29KT 4097 8397 4053 8400

Saunders