Funnel Cloud in Minnesota, August 9, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
315 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019

Showers and thunderstorms will be the main challenges for the
period.

Surface high pressure continues to slowly move eastward with our
western counties finally seeing some southerly winds and low 60s
dewpoints. CAMs continue to show our southern counties getting
shower activity although the strongest cells will remain to the
south over SD. This fits with continued low MU CAPE values over
our area this afternoon with better instability remaining south.
Will continue to keep high POPs along our southern border but
north is looking more dry. Clouds and precip should keep lows from
getting quite as cool tonight and will stay in the 50s to low 60s.

Much of the day on Saturday will be quiet with tonight's shortwave
moving into southern MN and the next shortwave coming over the
top of the upper ridge into Manitoba/Ontario. Think there will be
enough sun to reach the upper 70s and low 80s by afternoon. Some
showers and thunderstorms will move into our northern counties
along a cold front approaching the international border Saturday
afternoon. At this point the CAPE values again are not too
impressive, so think severe threat will be limited although some
lightning and brief heavy rain will not be out of the question.
The cold front will continue to push through the CWA Saturday
night, bringing a continued chance for precipitation and lows back
near 50 degrees near the Canadian border.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019

Sunday through Tuesday

For Sunday, the day will be cooler than Saturday due to the cold
front pushing further to the south. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon with rain coverage
greatly increasing by the evening and the night. The current
guidance suggests areas of low pressure progressing to the east from
the Montana area with occlusion possible. The NAEFS Ensemble
Situational Awareness Table shows widespread precipitable water
values of 1 to 1.5 inches, which is at the 90th to 95th percentile
for this time of the year. Current guidance and the WPC are both
suggesting widespread QPF values between Sunday evening and Monday
evening of 1 to 2 inches. Some isolated areas in northeastern North
Dakota may see slightly more than 2 inches, but a large deal of
uncertainty exists at this point. It is also important to note that
all guidance is in at least decent agreement of the 500mb trough
being at or below 575 dam, which is nearly 10 dam below average.
This indicates that a significant cool down is possible into early
next week with suggestions of highs on Monday potentially in the
lower 60s near the international border to the mid 70s south of
Fargo. Some warming up with a more settled pattern are seen for
Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday

Beyond Tuesday, the models are in significant disagreement for the
dominating synoptic pattern. The ECMWF and Canadian both show
ridging over the area for Thursday with the GFS showing more of a
trough over the area. Embedded shortwaves are certainly possible
with both of these solutions, meaning that some convection could
continue these days with ample heating. Coverage may be better by
Friday as some guidance supports more large-scale troughing over the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019

VFR conditions as cirrus and mid level clouds increase from the
southwest. Some of the models have some MVFR ceilings at KDVL at
the end of the period, but not confident enough to include at this
point and just have 3500 ft ceilings for now. Some showers and
thunderstorms will be moving through the region, but at this point
it seems that most of the activity will be south and west of the
TAF sites so will leave any mention out for the time being. Winds
will be light at less than 10 kts and mostly from the southeast.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...Wasilewski
AVIATION...JR

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
536 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ008-016-027-029-030-038-
039-049-052-053-102245-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Pembina-
Eastern Walsh County-Grand Forks-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-
Sargent-Richland-
536 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Chances for thunderstorms develop across the region on Saturday
night, Sunday night through Monday night, and off and on during
the work week. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible Sunday
night through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-054-102245-
Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-Eddy-Nelson-Griggs-
Western Walsh County-
536 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
northeast ND and the Devils Lake basin on Saturday evening. The
main hazards will be large hail up to quarter size and damaging
wind gusts up to 60 mph.

Chances for thunderstorms develop across the region on Sunday
night through Monday night and off and on during the work week.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible Sunday night through
Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters may be needed Saturday evening.

BP