Isolated severe thunderstorms blew down trees and power lines across portions of Bell, Perry, Estill, Martin, and Powell Counties during the afternoon and early evening hours of Tuesday, August 20, 2019.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Isolated severe thunderstorms blew down trees and power lines across portions of Bell, Perry, Estill, Martin, and Powell Counties during the afternoon and early evening hours of Tuesday, August 20, 2019.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 20, 12:01 PM EST, 51 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 101 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1258 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2019 As temperatures quickly rise this afternoon, enough instability is present that some showers and thunderstorms are beginning to pop up ahead of the MCS to our NW. While models are still trying to bring this system into the state, they are all starting to come into better agreement about it falling apart as it reaches our CWA. That being said, expect these pop up showers and thunderstorms to continue through the afternoon before the main system reaches us. Given the ample instability and heat, some of these storms could be strong briefly...but with little motion aloft to push them along. A few locations may get some heavy rainfall, but unfortunately, it will be spotty, leaving a few locations soaked and others still very dry. Increased pops to slight chances starting now and over the next few hours, increasing to chances by later in the afternoon. All updates have been published and sent to NDFD/web. A new set of zones was also sent out to remove any late morning wording. UPDATE Issued at 953 AM EDT TUE AUG 20 2019 Forecast is in good shape so far this morning. Did a quick update to make sure the temp and dew point forecast were on track with the current conditions, but this resulted in only minor changes. Also resending the ZFP to remove early valley fog wording. All updates have been published and sent to NDFD/web. UPDATE Issued at 741 AM EDT TUE AUG 20 2019 The models are struggling with convective evolution upstream this morning and that will have implications on our convective coverage later this afternoon and evening. The 06Z HRRR was strange in showing the convection going more east and then outflowing southward toward KY and the GFS dives the complex more southward into MO. The generally progression right now would suggest some where in the middle, which falls more in line with the SPC outlook. Again given the uncertainty will remain where we are for now and let further updates handle afternoon and evening convection. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 357 AM EDT TUE AUG 20 2019 We remain under the influence of a surface high off to the east and ridging nosing in from the southwest. This will lead to another hot and muggy day across eastern Kentucky, with the 850mb temperatures in the far east approaching 22C. We should be more on the muggy side given the better moisture return, and this should lead to slightly lower temperatures from yesterday. Given this thought NBM was reasonable based on the pattern over the past couple of days, but still think the dewpoints are a little on the higher side. Either way should still top out in the lower 90s for most spots. There is the potential for afternoon convection as the ridge does back off slightly, as a shortwave approaches the Ohio Valley later in the day. The initial convection will fire along the higher terrain in general, but all eyes turn to southeastward propagating MCS that is already developing across IA this morning. The CAMs show this feature becoming more cold pool dominant as it tracks into Kentucky, but the outflow generated would have the potential to fire off additional convection underneath MLCAPE values around 1000 to 1500 J/kg across our area. However, the timing would be more in the late afternoon and evening and this could lead to a lesser severe weather threat this far east. Thus SPC maintains the marginal risk for severe weather and this would translate to more isolated instances of severe weather. The shortwave will move across the Lower Ohio Valley by around 06Z and thus maintained some PoPs overnight as a result. The issue becomes more mesoscale processes after this and will maintain a more slight to chance PoP forecast through Wednesday. Did keep the temperatures elevated, but not quite as warm given the potential for more cloud cover, unknown on convective coverage, and more suppressed upper level ridge. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 20 2019 The models are in good agreement with a fairly amplified long wave pattern to remain in place across the CONUS to start the period. A sharper trough axis will cross the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley regions Wednesday night through Friday, shunting an upper level ridge towards the western Atlantic and along the Gulf Coast. A cold front will drop southeast and eventually stall across the Tennessee Valley, allowing for a return of unsettled weather across eastern Kentucky. The front will become more diffuse into this weekend and early next week; however, troughing will be maintained aloft across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, keeping the threat of at least diurnally driven convection going across our area each day. The models do continue to differ with the frontal timing, with the GFS more progressive, while the ECMWF depicts a slower solution. Have stuck fairly close to the blended solution to account for this uncertainty. The overall best chance (likely PoPs) will be Thursday through Friday, as the front crosses the Commonwealth. PoPs will then become more diurnally influenced this weekend and into early next week, with generally weaker forcing in place. Temperatures will average near normal through the period, with highs generally in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT TUE AUG 20 2019 We are beginning the period mostly VFR, with a couple of sites advecting fog in this morning. The fog will burn off around 13 to 14z and mostly clear skies will be the story until more cumulus form later in the day. There remains a fair amount of uncertainty related to upstream convective evolution and therefore only went VCTS at the TAF sites later this afternoon and evening time frame. The winds will remain light generally out of the south and southwest through the TAF period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...DJ
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 423 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-211130- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 423 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Heat indices will range from the upper 90s to around 100 degrees this afternoon. Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight. Some storms could approach severe limits, with strong to damaging wind gusts the primary threat. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Heat indices will range from the upper 90s to around 100 degrees Wednesday afternoon. Thunderstorms will be possible at times from Wednesday through Monday, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours each day. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed for storm reports this afternoon and evening. DJ/GEOGERIAN
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 69 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:52 UTC.
7 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Local media reported numerous trees blown down on the Mountain Parkway northwest of Westbend.
Emergency Management relayed reports of trees blown down from northeast of Fox on New Fox Road, to Hargett on Kentucky Highway 89 near the intersection with Highway 82. This subsequently caused the roadway to be temporarily impassable.
The county Emergency Manager reported a large tree downed across Sandhill/Webb Road north of Witt Springs.
A local media outlet reported several trees blown down along Lost Creek Road in northern Perry County near Rowdy.
A citizen observed trees blown down at a campground near Buckhorn Lake.
The local Department of Highways reported a large tree fell on a work truck on Route 3 near Marcumtown.
Dispatch reported power lines and numerous large trees were blown down near the community of Field on Kentucky Highway 66.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, August 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 839443, 839444, 841251, 839447, 839448, 839449, 839450.