Flooding in Kansas, April 1 to 30, 2019

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1138 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 235 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2019

A tranquil close to the weekend this Sunday afternoon as high
pressure remains in control following yesterday's storm system
passage. With north winds prevailing, temperatures have struggled
to warm up this afternoon, and its likely most will see highs
only climb into the middle 40s before sunset. In any event, winds
will begin shifting to the southwest later this evening which will
make the beginnings of a decent warm up as high pressure pushes
off to our east. This should allow high temps on Monday to climb
back into the upper 50s for most locations, with low 60s likely
by Tuesday. The only minor concern heading into early portions of
the work week will be the dry conditions with minimum relative
humidity values falling into the mid- to upper 30s both Monday and
Tuesday afternoons. These values combined with breezy southwest
winds Monday and Tuesday may set the stage for minor fire weather
concerns as fuels continue to dry following Saturday's storm
system. As a result, we cannot rule out some sporadic wildfire
activity both afternoons, but conditions are not expected to
reach critical fire weather thresholds.

Otherwise, next chance for rain still on target to arrive early
Tuesday morning but latest model trends have backed off on
southward extent of rain shower activity. As a result, it now
looks like the bulk of activity will fall north of Route 36 should
shwrs manage to develop at all. Synoptic-scale forcing looks very
weak with this shortwave, which combined with the dry airmass
preceding this disturbance, doesn't exactly lend a whole lot of
confidence for a widespread rain event. For now, have maintained
chance pops across the far north, but precip amounts should be
under a tenth of an inch at most.

By Wednesday, fcst models show a warm front lifting north across
the region and stalling near the Iowa state border as low pressure
develops/strengthens across the central High Plains. This feature
will likely serve as a focus for scattered shwr development north
of I-70 through the day on Wednesday, with models suggesting
little if any instability will be available which should limit the
threat for convection. Shwr activity is then expected to become
more widespread Wednesday night and Thursday as the next storm
system ejects out of the Four Corners region and slides east with
time. In contrast to yesterday's model runs, today's have come in
advertising much less in the way of available instability which
suggests an isolated thunder threat may be all that we're able to
muster as this system moves over the region on Thursday. Given
this scenario, along with negligible deep-layered shear, it
appears this feature will pass with little impact aside from some
minor rises on area rivers and streams as storm total QPF values
currently look to remain below 1".

Beyond this, dry weather looks to return to the region for much of
next weekend despite a storm system that is expected to be
tracking across the southern Plains. Right now, it currently
appears as if high pressure centered across the central and
eastern Great Lakes may provide enough of a buffer to keep the
bulk of next weekend dry. Along with this drier weather,
temperatures are also expected to warm nicely with upper 60s and
low 70s possible both Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2019

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Light
south winds will persist, increasing slightly in the mid to late
morning hours, Monday. Some FEW to SCT mid-level clouds may
develop around late morning across the region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...32
Aviation...Kurtz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
359 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-010900-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
359 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Ongoing river flooding will persist through the upcoming work week.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

 Off and on rain chances are possible by the mid-week, with embedded
 thunderstorm activity on Thursday.

More detailed information can be accessed at...
https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo