Extensive flooding occurred late May and into June across eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and northeast Missouri. The last half of May was very wet with 5-8 inches of rain falling over the region.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DVN wrote it up.
Extensive flooding occurred late May and into June across eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and northeast Missouri. The last half of May was very wet with 5-8 inches of rain falling over the region. This combined with saturated soils, brought many rivers above Moderate to Major flood levels. Many climate sites only saw 3 days of no precipitation from May 16th to May 31st. |The Wapsipinicon, Iowa, Skunk, Des Moines, Rock, and Green Rivers all recorded a preliminary Top 10 crest on record. The main stem Mississippi also crested again in late May / early June, with sites from Le Claire LD 14 on downstream recording a Top 10 crest. |Several significant flood events also occurred in March - Early May 2019 due to snowmelt, heavy rain, and saturated soil.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Quad Cities, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 27, 2:48 PM CST, 12 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 348 PM CDT Mon May 27 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon May 27 2019 18Z surface data has a low along the IA/MN border northwest of KMCW. A warm front extended east from the low and then southeast from near KDEH into northern Illinois. The cold front ran south and then southwest from the low into southeast Nebraska and Kansas. Dew points were in the 40s and 50s from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. South of the warm front and east of the cold front dew points were in the 60s to near 70. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT Mon May 27 2019 Some diurnally driven convection should fire west of the Mississippi through sunset that will result in isolated to scattered storms especially as the cold front moves into the area. RAP trends are suggesting considerable sinking air across Iowa which 'may' keep much of the area west of the Mississippi dry late this afternoon and evening. East of the Mississippi the strong to severe convection will exit the area through sunset. After sunset the cold front may help initiate more thunderstorms south of I-80 that may persist near the front through sunrise Tuesday. On Tuesday the CMC is suggesting an organized thunderstorm complex will roll across the area. If this scenario occurs, the warm front would remain stalled near the IA/MO border before surging north in the afternoon. The other models have no organized thunderstorm complex but vary on when the front will move back north. Regardless, thunderstorms will be seen again on Tuesday with storms being the most numerous from mid-afternoon through the evening hours. The presence of the warm front along with strong winds aloft will provide a favorable environment for severe storms. The amount of daytime heating and the position of the front will be key factors regarding the overall severe potential during the afternoon and evening hours. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT Mon May 27 2019 Tuesday night Assessment...high confidence on storms. Low on rainfall amounts Storms that develop Tuesday afternoon have the potential to organize into a storm complex that slowly moves east. The amount of moisture streaming north into the area will provide plenty of fuel to generate heavy rainfall. The model consensus has categorical pops for Tuesday night. Wednesday Assessment...medium confidence Lingering rain from the previous night will continue during the morning hours on Wednesday. The amount of new development that occurs Wednesday afternoon will depend upon the amount of daytime heating. The model consensus has slight chance to chance pops for the area. Wednesday night and Thursday Assessment...medium confidence Areal coverage of storms will increase Wednesday night as the next surface low moves east through the area. Boundaries left over from the overnight storms will provide the focus for new storm development on Thursday. The model consensus has chance to likely pops Wednesday night and Thursday morning with the highest pops east of the Mississippi. For Thursday afternoon the model consensus has chance pops for the entire area. Thursday night on... Thursday night Assessment...medium confidence Lingering convection from the day Thursday will continue into the evening hours before dissipating. The model consensus has slight chance to chance pops Thursday evening with mainly dry conditions after midnight. Friday and Friday night Assessment...medium to high confidence The model consensus has high pressure moving across the area creating dry conditions. Temperatures should be near normal. Saturday through Monday Assessment...low confidence The global models diverge with their respective solutions in terms of the sensible weather. There seems to be some agreement that temperatures will be around or slightly above normal. The ECMWF brings an upper level disturbance through the area Saturday and Saturday night producing rain while keeping the Sunday through Monday time frame mainly dry. The FV3 is similar to the ECMWF in bringing an upper level disturbance through the area Saturday and Saturday night. However it does generate diurnal convection on Sunday and Monday. The GFS brings the upper level disturbance through Saturday afternoon and night, slightly slower than the ECMWF. However like the FV3 it generates diurnal convection on Sunday and Monday. The CMC global has no upper level disturbance and only generates some diurnal convection Saturday and Sunday. Unlike the other global models, the CMC global bring a cold front through the area on Monday and generates convection along it. Given the differences the model consensus has slight chance to chance pops from Saturday through Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon) ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT Mon May 27 2019 Conditions range from VFR to IFR with convection across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois. MVFR/IFR conditions in convection will be seen through 03z/28 with areas of VFR outside of convection. TSRA are likely that may produce wind gusts to 35 knots. After 03z/28 mainly VFR conditions will be seen as weak high pressure moves through the upper Midwest. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon May 27 2019 Several changes have been made to river forecasts across the area this morning. After collaboration with the NCRFC, WPC and surrounding offices, the decision was made to utilize 48 hour predicted rainfall in the latest river forecasts. For the update this evening, 36 hour predicted rainfall will be used, while forecasts will return to 24 hour predicted rainfall Tuesday morning. This decision was made to capture the bulk of precipitation expected through Wednesday. Latest models and WPC guidance shifted heavy rain further south from previous guidance, and now have much of eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and northeast Missouri underneath a swath of 1.50-3.00 inches through Wednesday. As a result, many points along the tributaries either have had new flood warnings issued or have seen categorical changes from moderate to major flooding. Along the Mississippi, several points have seen rises in crest forecasts of several feet. However, these crests fall within what we were expecting and have been communicating for several days. For additional details, please see the latest flood statements. Looking ahead, quieter weather looks to make a brief return to the region by mid week. While chances for precipitation still exist for Wednesday and Thursday, there is high confidence that rainfall amounts will be light. By Friday, much of the region will be dry. There are signals in the last model runs that hint at active weather returning across the area by the weekend. However, confidence on rainfall amounts and how this would affect river forecasts is low. As mentioned in previous discussions, we urge people with interests in the rivers to stay in tune with the latest information. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...08 SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...08 HYDROLOGY...Speck
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 355 AM CDT Mon May 27 2019 IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-280900- Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson- Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson- Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll- Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson- Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark- 355 AM CDT Mon May 27 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT Severe storms are possible across the area today through this evening and the Storm Prediction Center has an enhanced risk over much of east central Iowa and all of northwest Illinois. There is a slight risk over the remainder of the outlook area. Storms with the potential for strong winds and heavy rainfall will move into the area this morning. A greater risk for severe storms will occur this afternoon as a warm front lifts northward across the area. Thunderstorms are likely with a few supercells possible, especially in the afternoon. The severe weather threats will include damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes. Scattered storms will be possible in the evening, with a few possibly severe before 10 pm. Heavy rainfall will be possible today through the evening hours. This may lead to flash flooding as soil conditions are saturated from the recent wet weather. Area rivers are experiencing flooding. Please see the latest Flood Statements and Flood Warnings for details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY Both severe weather and heavy rain are a threat Tuesday and a lesser threat Wednesday. SPC currently has the area in a slight risk Tuesday and marginal risk Wednesday, reflecting the relative risk of severe weather each day. Additional rainfall will continue to exacerbate flooding on both the Mississippi River and tributaries. Another round of storms is forecast late Friday night into Saturday, and rain could linger intermittently through the weekend. While it is too early to predict any severe weather hazards, additional rainfall would continue to maintain high soil moisture levels and flooding on area rivers. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation and amateur radio activation may be needed this afternoon and evening. Sheets/Wolf
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
210 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0208 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 WNW MOLINE 41.50N 90.52W
05/27/2019 ROCK ISLAND IL TRAINED SPOTTER
16TH AVE BETWEEN 13TH ST AND 14TH ST. WATER
6 INCHES DEEP.
0200 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 SSE DAVENPORT 41.54N 90.59W
05/27/2019 SCOTT IA TRAINED SPOTTER
17TH AND VINE ST HAS WATER 2.5 FEET DEEP.
0145 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SE DAVENPORT 41.54N 90.57W
05/27/2019 U0.00 INCH SCOTT IA TRAINED SPOTTER
TORRENTIAL RAINS IS CAUSING SOME FLOODING ON
E 15TH STREET BETWEEN BRADY ST AND LE CLAIRE
ST. THE WATER IS BETWEEN 6 AND 12 INCHES
DEEP IN SPOTS.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
223 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0215 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SE MT HAMILL 40.71N 91.57W
05/27/2019 M1.40 INCH LEE IA TRAINED SPOTTER
RAINFALL IN 1/2 HOUR.
&&
HAASEPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
224 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0203 PM TORNADO 1 WSW SPRING GROVE 40.73N 91.19W
05/27/2019 DES MOINES IA TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER OBSERVED A TORNADO TOUCH DOWN
LOOKING NORTH OF LOCATION HEADING TOWARD
SPRING GROVE WHILE ON PHONE WITH NWS. TIME
EXACT.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
236 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0125 PM TORNADO 4 ENE CANTRIL 40.67N 92.00W
05/27/2019 VAN BUREN IA TRAINED SPOTTER
2 HOUSES DAMAGED OR DESTROYED ON JERSEY AVE
JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
257 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0256 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NW DAVENPORT 41.56N 90.62W
05/27/2019 M1.66 INCH SCOTT IA TRAINED SPOTTER
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
259 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0259 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 WNW MORRISON 41.81N 89.98W
05/27/2019 M1.15 INCH WHITESIDE IL TRAINED SPOTTER
6 HR TOTAL.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
12 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Mississippi River at Rock Island Lock and Dam 15 rose above its major flood stage of 18 feet during the afternoon of May 27th and continued into June. The river crested in June, with the stage rising to 21.4 feet at the end of May 31st.
The Mississippi River at Illinois City Lock and Dam 16 rose above its major flood stage of 18 feet during the afternoon of May 27th and continued into June. The river crested in June, with the stage rising to 21.45 feet at the end of May 31st.
The Mississippi River at Muscatine (MUSI4) rose above its major flood stage of 20 feet during the early morning of May 28th and continued into June. The river crested in June, with the stage rising to 24.0 feet at the end of May 31st.
The Wapsipinicon River at DeWitt 4S (DEWI4) rose above its major flood stage of 12.5 feet during the afternoon of May 28th and continued into June. The river crested in May 30th around 6 AM at 13.68 feet, before falling slowly through May 31st.
The Wapsipinicon River at DeWitt 4S (DEWI4) rose above its major flood stage of 12.5 feet during the afternoon of May 28th and continued into June. The river crested in May 30th around 6 AM at 13.68 feet, before falling slowly through May 31st.
The Des Moines River rose above the major flood stage of 27 feet in the late evening hours May 28th, and crested at 4 AM CST May 30 at 27.9 feet. It feel back below major flood stage late afternoon May 29th.
The Des Moines River rose above the major flood stage of 25 feet in the late evening hours May 28th, and crested at 845 AM CST May 29 at 27.87 feet. It feel back below major flood stage late afternoon May 30th.
The Skunk River rose above the major flood stage of 20 feet in the early morning hours May 29th, and crested at 1030 AM CST May 30 at 24 feet. It continued to exceed major flood stage into early June.
The Skunk River rose above the major flood stage of 20 feet in the early morning hours May 29th, and crested at 1030 AM CST May 30 at 24 feet. It continued to exceed major flood stage into early June.
The English River rose above the major flood stage of 18 feet in the early morning hours May 29th, and crested at 3 PM CST May 30 at 18.5 feet. It feel below major flood stage early in the morning on the 31st. This was the second of two major floods on this river in May.
The Mississippi River at Le Claire Lock and Dam 14 rose above its major flood stage of 13.5 feet during the morning of May 29th and continued into June. The river crested in June, with the stage rising to 15 feet at the end of May 31st.
The Mississippi River at Camanche (CMMI4) rose above its major flood stage of 20.5 feet during the morning of May 30th and continued into June. The river crested in June, with the stage rising to 21.1 feet at the end of May 31st.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Iowa in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Iowa, May 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 827096, 827094, 827087, 827113, 827114, 826831, 826841, 826865, 826866, 826876, 827104, 827106.