Extensive flooding occurred late May and into June across eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and northeast Missouri. The last half of May was very wet with 5-8 inches of rain falling over the region.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DVN wrote it up.
Extensive flooding occurred late May and into June across eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and northeast Missouri. The last half of May was very wet with 5-8 inches of rain falling over the region. This combined with saturated soils, brought many rivers above Moderate to Major flood levels. Many climate sites only saw 3 days of no precipitation from May 16th to May 31st. |The Wapsipinicon, Iowa, Skunk, Des Moines, Rock, and Green Rivers all recorded a preliminary Top 10 crest on record. The main stem Mississippi also crested again in late May / early June, with sites from Le Claire LD 14 on downstream recording a Top 10 crest. |Several significant flood events also occurred in March - Early May 2019 due to snowmelt, heavy rain, and saturated soil.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Quad Cities, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 19, 4:49 AM CST, 1 hour 11 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 549 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019 The better forcing on the nose of the LLJ has shifted northward and much of the showers and storms were north and east of the dvn cwa. A few showers and storms were noted in northern/central MO. Temperatures across the dvn cwa early this morning were in the mid 60s at most locations. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019 Headlines: The flash flood watch has been cancelled as the threat of widespread heavy rainfall has ended. The airmass was becoming drier and shear/instability was minimal. Today: A few showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected mainly this morning as low pressure tracks from eastern IA into northern Lower MI later today. The airmass will continue to dry out as winds turn southwest with decreasing coverage of showers. The main area of stronger storms later today looks to be well east of the dvn cwa along the cold front. Forecast soundings indicate a deep sw to w flow in the column with 35-40 kts winds at the mixed layer. This will be a windy day especially from late this morning through the afternoon. Considered a wind advisory but for now the situation looks marginal for headlines, but the day shift can monitor trends. As of now, wind gusts of around 40 mph seem likely. Highs will range from the lower 60s nw to the lower 70s se. Tonight: A quiet and believe it or not a dry night expected as low pressure pushes into the northern Great Lakes region, and high pressure ridge builds into western IA from the northern Plains. Skies should clear after midnight and w to nw winds will gradually diminish. Temperatures will be colder with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019 Cool temperatures to start the week followed by a warm up and then another cool down for next weekend. Overall weather pattern to remain very active with several rounds of rain. Monday Assessment...high confidence Dry and very cool conditions will be seen Monday as high pressure quickly moves through the Midwest. Temperatures will average around 10 degrees below normal. Monday night Assessment...medium confidence Mainly dry conditions will be seen across the area during the evening hours as the next storm system approaches from the Plains. Late Monday night rain will begin overspreading the area with the better rain chances across the western third of the area. The model consensus has slight chance to likely pops for late Monday night. Tuesday and Tuesday night Assessment...high confidence on rain occurring. Low confidence on amounts and severe potential The next storm system moves the main low north through the Plains. Easterly flow over most of the area will keep cool temperatures for much of the day. Temperatures may warm late in the afternoon south of I-80 as winds turn more southeast. The strongest forcing and thus better chances for rain are generally across central Iowa. There is some good forcing occurring into northeast Iowa which should help enhance rain potential west of the Mississippi. The model consensus has chance to likely pops Tuesday with likely pops Tuesday night. The large scale shows the Gulf wide open and feeding deep moisture into the Plains and Midwest. Thus the heavy rainfall risk is real. Central Iowa is currently favored for heavy rainfall but rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are very possible across eastern Iowa. This situation will have to be watched closely for possible headlines. The initial cool temperatures means than rain will be seen during the morning and early afternoon hours. As forcing increases with the approach of the upper level part of the storm system, thunderstorms should begin developing by mid to late afternoon and continue into Tuesday night. Regarding the severe potential; the shear in the atmosphere is tremendous. However, the atmosphere only becomes marginally unstable due to the cool temperatures. Thus while there is a severe risk the window for any severe storms looks to be quite narrow and confined to the late afternoon and early evening hours with hail being the primary risk. A wind risk 'may' be possible if storms can organize into a line across Missouri that races northeast into the area. The line scenario is within the realm of possibilities given the more unstable atmosphere across Missouri. Wednesday on... Wednesday Assessment...high confidence Quiet, dry and warmer conditions will be seen on Wednesday as high pressure moves through the Midwest. Temperatures should average above normal. Wednesday night through Saturday Assessment...low to medium confidence The models diverge with their respective solutions. They do suggest somewhat similar scenarios but differ on the details. All four global models develop a boundary from northern Missouri into central Indiana Wednesday night. The FV3 has it as a surface boundary while the GFS, CMC global and ECMWF have it as an upper level boundary. Said boundary remains in place through Thursday before lifting north of the area Thursday night/Friday. Another storm system then drags a surface cold front through the area in the Friday through Saturday night time frame. While the overall scenario is similar between the global models there are differences in the details regarding timing of rain and potential rainfall amounts. The model consensus is somewhat biased toward the GFS and CMC solutions. Currently the model consensus has chance to likely pops Wednesday night and Thursday, mainly dry conditions Thursday night (due to the CMC global), and then slight chance to chance pops Friday through Saturday. Areas south of highway 30 are favored Friday and Friday night. For Saturday areas south of I-80 are favored. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning) ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect the TAF sites this morning. VSbys will drop with any storm. CIGs eventually lower to MVFR/lcl IFR today into this evening. Southwest to west winds increase to 30 to 35 knots later this morning through the afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019 A line of thunderstorms that tracked through the area this morning produced rainfall roughly in a .25 to .5 inch range with local heavier totals, based on both radar and surface reports. The relatively fast movement of the heavy rainfall rates has prevented any short term hydro issues. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for tonight through mid morning Sunday in anticipation of the next round of potentially heavy rainfall, that will occur with nearly saturated soil conditions now in place. Latest trends suggest a break in the rain is expected early this afternoon, then another thunderstorm complex with heavy rainfall currently over KS and OK will pass through the forecast area late this afternoon into overnight. This will have the potential for widespread heavy rain and the latest river forecasts have these two events incorporated, with expected rainfall totals of around 1 inch east to 2 inches in the far west, which is a conservative, middle range of possibilities. As a result, new river forecasts this morning, incorporating this rainfall, have much higher levels than yesterday, on both tributary rivers and the Mississippi River, This has resulted in higher levels, new flooding and higher category flooding on area rivers, and numerous flood warnings went out this morning, as detailed below. On the tributary rivers: Rapid rises are expected over the next couple days. Moderate flooding is now expected on the Wapsipinicon at Dewitt. On the Skunk River, Sigourney is now forecast to reach the upper levels of Moderate flooding and Augusta reaches Moderate flooding as well. On the Iowa River, Marengo surges much higher into Moderate flooding, while Wapello and Oakville are now forecast to reach Minor flooding. On the Cedar River, only within bank rises are expected. The English River at Kalona is now forecast to climb into Moderate flooding. The Des Moines River is also forecast to rise into Minor flooding. On the Illinois side, within bank rises are expected at Freeport, while the Rock River will rise above flood stage at Moline and stay longer above flood stage at Joslin. The La Moine River at Colmar is forecast to climb sharply, but crest below flood stage early next week. On the Mississippi River: Forecasts have risen considerably, now that this weekend system's QPF (total rain forecast) is taken into account. Warnings for Minor to Moderate flooding were issued this morning for Dubuque LD11, Dubuque Railroad Bridge, Fulton, and Le Claire. At Rock Island, a higher and prolonged crest into Moderate flooding is now expected. A change from Minor to Moderate flooding was made for Muscatine and from Moderate to Major flooding issued for Keithsburg and Gladstone. At Burlington, the new forecast has a higher crest, now close to Major flooding occurring early next week. Keokuk rose from Minor flooding to Major flooding, likely due to the contribution of upstream tributaries. Gregory Landing stays within Moderate flooding, but crests much higher than the previous forecast. These forecasts will likely change some as rainfall amounts and coverage are taken into account. Another system with potentially heavy rainfall is expected Tuesday, which may result in additional rises, renewed flooding or higher category flooding and is not incorporated in the current river forecasts. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...Haase SHORT TERM...Haase LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...Haase HYDROLOGY...Sheets
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 411 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019 IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-200915- Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson- Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson- Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll- Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson- Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark- 411 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon in Bureau and Putnam counties in Illinois. However, there is low confidence in severe storms occurring. Southwest to west winds will gust to around 40 mph late this morning into the early evening hours. Drivers of high profile vehicles should use extra caution. Area rivers are experiencing flooding. Please see the latest Flood Statements and Flood Warnings for details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY Thunderstorms with heavy rain are expected late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk of severe storms south of a Vinton, Iowa to Kewanee, Illinois line. South of an Ottumwa, Iowa to Macomb, Illinois line there is a slight risk of severe storms. If severe storms occur Tuesday the most likely time frame is 4 to 8 PM. The primary risk would be large hail. A wind risk may be possible if storms organize into a line across Missouri and then race northeast into Iowa and Illinois. If the line scenario occurs then the severe risk time frame would be 4 PM to midnight. There is a daily chance of thunderstorms from Wednesday night through Saturday that may produce heavy rainfall. It is too early to determine any severe risk. Flooding will continue along area rivers. Please see the latest Flood Statements and Flood Warnings for details. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed for today and tonight.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
224 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0223 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNE STONE CITY 42.14N 91.33W
05/19/2019 M2.00 INCH JONES IA TRAINED SPOTTER
SATURDAY RAINFALL.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
520 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0520 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNE CEDAR RAPIDS 42.00N 91.65W
05/19/2019 E2.17 INCH LINN IA TRAINED SPOTTER
EVENT TOTAL.
&&
PSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
538 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0537 AM HEAVY RAIN PARNELL 41.59N 92.01W
05/19/2019 M1.55 INCH IOWA IA TRAINED SPOTTER
STORM TOTAL.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The North Skunk River rose above the major flood stage of 21 feet in the morning hours May 19th, and crested at 330 PM CST May 19 at 22.75 feet. It feel back below major flood stage early afternoon May 20th.
The Mississippi River Gladstone Lock and Dam 18 rose above its major flood stage of 14 feet during the afternoon of May 19th and continued into June. The river crested in June, with the stage rising to 20.3 feet at the end of May 31st.
The Mississippi River at Keithsburg (KHBI2) rose above its major flood stage of 17 feet during the early morning of May 20th and continued into June. The river crested in June, with the stage rising to 22.6 feet at the end of May 31st.
The English River rose above the major flood stage of 18 feet in the early afternoon hours May 20th, and crested at 630 PM CST May 20 at 18.52 feet. It feel below major flood stage early in the morning on the 21st. Just a week later, another major flood occurred.
The Mississippi River at New Boston Lock and Dam 17 hovered near major flood stage from around May 21st to the 24th, then rose above its major flood stage of 18.5 feet during the morning of May 25th and continued into June. The river crested in June, with the stage rising to 24.1 feet at the end of May 31st.
The Mississippi River at Keokuk Lock and Dam 19 rose above its major flood stage of 19 feet during morning of May 22nd and continue into June. The river crested at 25.60 feet at 3 PM CST on May 30th. This was the 3rd highest crest on record.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Iowa in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Iowa, May 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 826863, 827053, 827058, 826872, 827081, 827039.