A weakening upper level disturbance moved through the mid Ohio Valley during the late afternoon and early evening hours.
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The episode as NWS ILN wrote it up.
A weakening upper level disturbance moved through the mid Ohio Valley during the late afternoon and early evening hours.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 16, 2:56 PM EST, 2 hours 51 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 356 PM EDT Thu May 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Northwest flow aloft and southwest flow at the surface will bring together moisture and lift over the Ohio Valley this evening, resulting in an enhanced threat for thunderstorms tonight. A frontal boundary will sag slowly south across the Great Lakes region tonight into Friday, leading to a chance for showers and thunderstorms. High pressure and drier conditions will build into the region for Saturday before another front brings a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Temperatures will continue to moderate into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Upper level energy upstream that is firing convection in nw IN will race over the CWA this late day and early evening, outpacing the low level forcing in place in western IN and IL. Near 70 dewpoints running s-n through IL will continue to get wrung out on the leading edge of this convective complex, but the upper energy outpacing it and the relative unreceptive surface features currently over ILN CWA does not favor this complex to continue to hold together as it pushes into the CWA on northwest flow aloft. This is just a mashup of a couple of vastly differing model solutions this evening, most of which keep convective initiation at bay and more northwest of the CWA through this evening. Expect some storms in northern Ohio to lay out a boundary wnw to ese over the CWA and another round of storms possible early in the overnight period northwest of metro Dayton. Any storms overnight will be on the decrease in both coverage and intensity, dying out towards daybreak. Storms that are present will have enough shear to maintain a presence for at least a few hours early tonight, and possibly but less likely through the overnight period. This shear increases the threat of these storms to produce large hail if they are present, which remains in high question at this time. Overnight lows were raised, particularly in the western third of the CWA where dewpoints in the mid 60s should be working in and inhibiting any rapid temperature decreases. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A relative minimum in thunderstorm activity is expected to start the day on Friday, but this could ramp up into some storms by late morning given the boundary that is expected to cross the CWA and potentially act as a focus for more storms to fire on. The bulk of the model solutions push the area of rain to the northeast sections of the CWA while the CAMs fire more robust activity along the boundary by later afternoon. Played the middle ground here and had a brief uptick in the potential for thunderstorms running from nw of Dayton to se of Columbus late in the day, decreasing sharply with the setting sun tomorrow. Any activity tomorrow night will lift well northeast of the CWA overnight. Highs on Friday were cut slightly everywhere given the expected cloud cover and potential rain, but by 3-4 degrees in the north where these conditions are more likely. Overnight lows will again be mild - 60-65 with the warmer readings southwest of Cincy and coolest northeast of Columbus. Forecast probabilities of thunderstorms are unusually low confidence starting in the immediate near-term and lasting through Friday given the wholesale differences between models, until the upper ridge finally begins to build into the region and southwest flow aloft turns more westerly overnight. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A mid level ridge will continue to build northward across the region on Saturday. This will place our area in a somewhat humid and warm airmass. There could be a low chance of a PoP up shower or storm during the afternoon, but that's around 10 percent so have kept the forecast dry. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s. For Saturday night into Sunday, a mid level trough with embedded short wave energy will pivot northeast from the central/southern Plains toward the western Great Lakes and middle Mississippi River Valley. This system now seems to have a stronger surface low and overall stronger wind field. The mid level ridge will move east on Sunday while the mid level trough/embedded energy pushes a cold front east. The timing of the front and associated instability will play an important part as to whether we see much severe weather Sunday afternoon and evening. For now, it looks like the slower progression of the cold front and max diurnal instability favor points just to our west, and that is where SPC has a slight risk for scattered severe storms. But given strong wind field and at least early on low end moderate instability across our west, there will likely be a marginal risk for isolated severe. A little early to put in the HWO for now. Otherwise, given the strong wind field and diurnal mixing, it will be breezy to windy with the windier conditions slated across the western CWFA. After lows in the 60s, Highs will range from the upper 70s northwest to the mid 80s east. As the mid level trough pushes northeast across the remainder of the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday, the cold front will push east as well. Instability wanes fairly quickly overnight, such that only some scattered showers are expected across the east by morning. Any lingering pcpn should move out of eastern locations by afternoon with skies becoming partly cloudy. After lows from the upper 50s northwest to the mid 60s east, highs will range from the lower 70s northwest to the lower 80s southeast on Monday. High pressure at the surface and aloft is expected to move into the region Monday night, then move east on Tuesday. This should provide a window of dry weather with near or slightly above normal temperatures. The remainder of the extended is still muddled with uncertainty (in terms of timing) as we head into mid to late week next week. A warm front will likely move into the region on Wednesday followed by a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday. Have kept a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast during this period. Highs will remain in the 70s to the lower 80s. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will be found over the region with some MVFR cigs possible tomorrow afternoon as a boundary lays out over the region from wnw to ese and lower cigs and some showers are a heightened possibility. Kept an initial shot of thunderstorms with the convection to the west over the northern CWA this late evening, with a boundary laying out over the CWA overnight. A secondary maxima of storms is possible before daybreak in the northwest and possibly affecting DAY, but the better shot of storms lies in central Ohio tonight. A rapid decrease in coverage is expected overnight through daybreak as the boundary layer decouples. Storms that are already initiated will slowly die out and new convection is not expected. Any lingering storms early on Friday will decrease until daytime heating sparks some scattered activity later tomorrow morning. If storms affect any TAF site overnight, conditions will drop to MVFR easily, primarily the vsbys but possibly cigs as well. Expect lower cigs late in the forecast to drop to the MVFR range, particularly over the northern TAF sites outside of metro Cincinnati. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times into Friday, and again on Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...Franks
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wilmington OH 421 AM EDT Thu May 16 2019 INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074- 080-082-171100- Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke- Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison- Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway- Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Highland-Pike- 421 AM EDT Thu May 16 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Southeast Indiana, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Occasional showers and thunderstorms will be possible tonight. A few of the storms may become severe with damaging wind and large hail the primary threat. In addition, locally heavy rainfall may result in isolated flooding concerns. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. A few of the storms may become severe later Friday afternoon and evening with damaging wind and large hail the primary threat. In addition, locally heavy rainfall may result in isolated flooding concerns. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be required this evening. INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ077>079-081-088-171100- Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton- Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hamilton- Clermont-Brown-Adams-Scioto- 421 AM EDT Thu May 16 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, South Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Occasional showers and thunderstorms will be possible tonight. A few of the storms may become severe this evening with damaging wind and large hail the primary threat. In addition, locally heavy rainfall may result in isolated flooding concerns. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be required this evening.
The Indianapolis radar (KIND), 108 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:43 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A few trees were downed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Indiana in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Indiana, May 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 814047.