Heavy rain caused flooding in parts of northwest Illinois.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LOT wrote it up.
Heavy rain caused flooding in parts of northwest Illinois.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Chicago, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 30, 5:20 AM CST, 40 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 620 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019 .SHORT TERM... 339 AM CDT Through Friday... Primary short term concern is with convective chances again today into this evening. GOES-16 differential water vapor RGB this morning nicely depicts an mid-upper level low over northern IA with a region of pronounced upper level diffluence very evident across northern IL to the east of this mid-upper level low. The upper level diffluence and a likely convective enhanced vort max are responsible for the rain and embedded t-storms currently across the region. While PWATs are down from the previous few days, the activity this morning has been fairly efficient rain producers with some localized totals of up to an inch in less than an hour with the heavier storms. MRMS rainfall estimates shows pockets of 3-hour rainfall totals of 1.25-1.50" over portions of north central IL where it is still raining. This activity should continue to propagate east across the remainder of the CWA through the early morning hours. Short range numerical guidance and simple extrapolation suggest that this activity should be winding down over the eastern portions of the CWA during the morning rush hour. Skies should clear out in the wake of this morning activity with a punch of mid-upper level drying in association with the cyclone dry slot. The clearing skies should allow the boundary layer to heat up and in the absence of any meaningful dry air advection in the boundary layer, the atmosphere is expected to destabilize this afternoon. RAP/NAM both depict steep mid-level lapse rates over top steepening low level lapse rates with an axis of MLCAPE values of 1000 to nearly 2000 j/Kg expected across the CWA by mid-late afternoon. Unlike most recent days, shear values will be much weaker today and generally not very supportive of an appreciable or organized severe weather threat. Certainly the steep lapse rates and moderately strong instability could support some robust updrafts, with some wet-microburst potential, but lack of shear should keep any marginal severe threat brief and isolated with any given storm with a tendency for outflow dominance. The center of the mid-upper level low will move into western IL later this afternoon. Somewhat concerned that the ambient vorticity associated with this upper low, the steep lapse rates, weak shear, and fairly strong 0-3km MLCAPE values (>200 j/Kg) could result in some funnel cloud or brief land spout potential with any developing convection. Most favored area for this activity would probably be over western and southwestern CWA and near any remnant boundaries, or perhaps near the lake breeze this afternoon. This is unlikely to be a big/high impact problem, but something to keep an eye on late this afternoon. Showers and t-storms will likely continue into the evening hours, particularly southern CWA on the immediate north and east side of the upper level circulation. Any very limited severe threat that will exist this afternoon, should end around sunset, even as showers and t-storms potentially continue into the mid-late evening far south and southeast CWA. This upper low will move east of the CWA later tonight with skies clearing out and setting the stage for what looks to be the first day in quite some time with no apparent rain threat Friday into Friday night. In fact, Friday should feature ample sunshine and warm conditions with westerly winds likely to bring that warm right up to the IL lakeshore, though some lake cooling is possible near the IN shore. Have raised temps a couple/few degrees for Friday given the expected sunshine and 925mb climo supporting highs solidly into the 80s CWA-wide, with mid 80s looking attainable over northern portions of the CWA. - Izzi && .LONG TERM... 249 AM CDT Friday night through Wednesday... After a dry day Friday, another good chance for showers and storms will be on the horizon for Saturday. A cold front is expected to shift southward over the area during the day. The prefrontal airmass over the area will be warm and unstable, and should support diurnal thunderstorm development. While deep layer bulk shear magnitudes are a bit in question at this time, it does appear that at least some potential exists for some strong storms with strong winds and hail Saturday afternoon and evening. Any storms would also be capable of producing heavy down pours. Following this frontal passage and period of storms on Saturday, it is looking like we may see 2 to 3 days (Sun thru Tue) of dry weather across the area as a cooler and drier airmass shifts over the region in association with an area of high pressure. During this dry period, temperatures are likely to be in the 70s inland, and in the 60s along the lakeshore. Otherwise, the chances for showers and thunderstorms looks to return to the area by mid- week as the flow turns southerly again. However, at this time these chances are fairly low (20-40%). KJB && .AVIATION... For the 12Z TAFs... Following the overnight showers and storms, the winds early this morning remain a bit variable due to a perturbed surface pressure pattern. This looks to result in a brief (1-2 hour) period of light easterly winds early this morning, before the winds begin to settle out of the west-southwest later in the morning. The winds could then shift easterly again later in the day with a lake breeze boundary. However, confidence on timing is bit low at this time. Either way, winds should generally remain under 10 kt. While most areas will remain dry today, it does appears that some additional thunderstorm development will occur this afternoon and evening, as an upper level disturbance moves overhead. At this time, the best chance for storms continues to be south of the main terminals. While this may impact southern arrivals/departures, it appears the threat for thunder over any given terminal is too low to include in the TAF at this time. For this reason, we continue only a mention of a VCSH. KJB && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
501 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019
ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
311015-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-Cook-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Will-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
501 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019 /601 AM EDT Thu May 30 2019/
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North Central
Illinois...Northeast Illinois and Northwest Indiana.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
Weather hazards expected...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
Limited hail risk...up to nickel size.
Limited damaging wind risk...up to 50 or 60 mph.
DISCUSSION...
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop
this afternoon. While some thunderstorm activity is expected
across most of the outlook area, the greatest coverage is
expected generally near and south of Interstate 80. Scattered
thunderstorms will continue into the evening hours, mainly south
of I-80. Conditions are not expected to be particularly favorable
for severe weather, however a few of the storms could briefly
become strong to possibly severe with very localized damaging wind
threat and perhaps some hail as well.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
Friday...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk.
Saturday...
Limited Severe Thunderstorm Risk.
Tuesday and Wednesday...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters will likely not be needed today due to the isolated
nature of any severe weather.
LMZ740>745-311015-
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
501 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Illinois
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and the Indiana nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
Weather hazards expected...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
Friday and Saturday...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk.
Tuesday and Wednesday...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk.
- Izzi
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National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville
143 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019
ILZ010-019-300715-
La Salle IL-Lee IL-
143 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LA SALLE AND CENTRAL
LEE COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM CDT...
At 143 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Dixon to 6 miles north of La Moille to
near Princeton. Movement was east at 30 mph.
Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Franklin Grove around 155 AM CDT.
Mendota and Ashton around 205 AM CDT.
Other locations impacted by these storms include West Brooklyn,
Compton and Sublette.
Including the following interstates...
I-39 between mile markers 71 and 83.
I-88 between mile markers 54 and 73.
This includes... Lee County Fairgrounds and Tri-County Fairgrounds.
LAT...LON 4189 8926 4189 8911 4167 8900 4154 8902
4152 8917 4158 8917 4158 8938 4160 8938
4187 8951
TIME...MOT...LOC 0643Z 252DEG 27KT 4182 8943 4162 8933 4137 8939
IZZIThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Portions of a campground were evacuated due to flooding along the Green River.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, May 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 828571.