Convection fired up along an old outflow and an intersecting cold front and tracked east southeast across the forecast area. Between 2 to 6 inches of rain fell, mainly along and south of Interstate 70.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LSX wrote it up.
Convection fired up along an old outflow and an intersecting cold front and tracked east southeast across the forecast area. Between 2 to 6 inches of rain fell, mainly along and south of Interstate 70. There were numerous reports of flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 22, 4:42 AM CST, 1 hour 18 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 542 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 528 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 A decaying MCV continues to push into eastern Missouri and has helped generate an area of heavy rainfall along and northeast of its northern flank. This area of showers and storms is responsible for the ongoing flashing flooding in and west of the St. Louis metro, and the showers will likely continue until the MCV clears the area in the next few hours. Therefore flash flooding will remain likely in the areas currently within the flash flood warnings stretching from central MO into the St. Louis metro area. BSH && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Showers and storms will continue to push southeast out of the region as a shortwave and the upper levels of an associated cold front push through the region. Extrapolation of the back edge of the precipitation, which is currently stretching from NE to SW MO, shows the precip clearing the area by 18z. This matches well with the CAMs and have therefore aligned the forecast with this timing. GLM shows limited thunder across the area this morning, and with limited instability, thinking we'll see more showers than storms. That said, these showers have proven to be efficient rainfall producers, with a weak cell over the office putting down about 0.2" of rain in 10 minutes earlier this morning. These scattered but intense downpours could still result in isolated flash flooding, especially toward southern Missouri. Cool air will funnel into the area behind the front, resulting in considerably cooler conditions this afternoon. Good guidance consensus showing highs this afternoon only reaching right around 80 and overnight lows near 60. With dewpoints forecast to drop from the 60s today into the 50s overnight, we'll be looking at heat index readings 20-30 degrees cooler than what we've seen the last several days BSH .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 A large ridge will build into the western CONUS through much of the week, keeping the mid-Mississippi Valley entrenched in northwest upper level flow through at least Thursday. By the end of the week, guidance in good agreement showing another shortwave moving down from Canada which should begin to break down the ridge and establish more zonal flow across the region. This evolution of the upper levels will allow for high pressure to gradually build into the region through the week before moving east of the area by the end of the week. With generally northerly flow until the high passes to our east on Thursday, we will be in store for continued below normal temperatures through at least Thursday. As flow swings around to the SW by Friday, temps should then begin to moderate. With the above progression, models show little to no forcing for ascent and therefore no precipitation in the forecast beyond today. However, some of the higher resolution models do show a few ripples embedded in the NW flow. Should these waves sync up with peak daytime heating, it's possible that we see isolated showers or storms. However, given little to no model consensus regarding these features, it's impossible to nail down whether or not these showers will develop and have therefore gone with a dry forecast beyond this afternoon. BSH && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019 Showers and storms will impact the taf sites late tonight as an upper level disturbance currently over northeastern KS and an associated cold front moves southeastward through our area late tonight and Monday morning with the strongest convection in the vicinity of the effective boundary across southern portions of MO and IL. The best coverage of convection and heavier rainfall will occur just south of COU and STL. The cloud ceiling may lower into the MVFR category in COU and the St Louis metro area late tonight and early Monday morning. The cloud ceiling will rise back into the VFR category by late Monday morning as the rain begins to shift southeast of the taf sites. Northerly surface winds will continue through the period. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: Showers and storms will impact STL late tonight as an upper level disturbance currently over northeastern KS and an associated cold front moves southeastward through our area late tonight and Monday morning with the strongest convection in the vicinity of the effective boundary across southern portions of MO and IL. St Louis will be on the northern fringes of the heavier rainfall. The cloud ceiling may lower into the MVFR category late tonight and early Monday morning. The cloud ceiling will rise back into the VFR category by late Monday morning as the rain begins to shift southeast of STL. Northerly surface winds will continue through the period. GKS && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && WFO LSX
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 344 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-230845- Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO- Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO- Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO- Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL- Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO- Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO- Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO- 344 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning, exiting the area by noon. Isolated heavy rain is expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Thunderstorms may linger into early Monday morning for portions of the area. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight. BSH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
651 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0642 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 NW UNIVERSITY CITY 38.67N 90.34W
07/22/2019 ST. LOUIS MO BROADCAST MEDIA
LOCATION APPROXIMATE. WATER RESCUES REPORTED
IN UNIVERSITY CITY NEAR WESTOVER AVE NEAR
THE RIVER DES PERES AND OLIVE BLVD.
&&
KANOFSKYPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
653 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0652 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 E RICHMOND HEIGHTS 38.63N 90.29W
07/22/2019 M4.30 INCH ST. LOUIS CITY MO TRAINED SPOTTER
UPDATED REPORT FROM TRAINED SPOTTER. TOTAL
IS NOW 4.3 INCHES AT TAMM AVE AND FOREST
PARK.
&&
KANOFSKYPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
655 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0615 AM FLOOD 2 E UPLANDS PARK 38.69N 90.25W
07/22/2019 ST. LOUIS CITY MO BROADCAST MEDIA
STANDING WATER ALONG EASTBOUND I-70 BEFORE
THE UNION EXIT. DEPTH UNKNOWN BUT PHOTOS
POSTED TO SOCIAL MEDIA SHOW THAT TRAFFIC IS
BEING IMPACTED.
&&
KANOFSKYPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
657 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0636 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 N CREVE COEUR 38.70N 90.43W
07/22/2019 ST. LOUIS MO BROADCAST MEDIA
ESTIMATED 3 FT DEEP WATER AT LACKLAND ROAD
AND SCHUETZ ROAD.
&&
KANOFSKYPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
658 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0657 AM HEAVY RAIN FREEBURG 38.43N 89.91W
07/22/2019 M2.20 INCH ST. CLAIR IL EMERGENCY MNGR
&&
JPGPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
700 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 WSW WELDON SPRING 38.70N 90.68W
07/22/2019 M2.09 INCH ST. CHARLES MO OFFICIAL NWS OBS
LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY FALLING AT NWS OFFICE.
&&
JPGThe St Louis radar (KLSX), 111 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:58 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Up to 4 inches of rain fell in a short amount of time causing flash flooding. Portions of Old U.S. Highway 50 just west of Aviston were flooded, as well as, several secondary roads.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, July 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 849933.