Idaho, 2019Debris Flow in Idaho, August 9, 2019
August 9, 2019 · NWS PIH · 1 event in 1 county or zone
On August 9th a mud slide occurred one mile past the east fort of Baker Creek. Warm Springs Road was impassable from the west of the Hot Springs in Ketchum.
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
On August 9th a mud slide occurred one mile past the east fort of Baker Creek. Warm Springs Road was impassable from the west of the Hot Springs in Ketchum. 3 to 5 inches of mud covered the road.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pocatello, ID wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 9, 12:29 PM MST, 2 hours 31 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 9, 12:29 PM MST, 2 hours 31 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
129 PM MDT Fri Aug 9 2019
.DISCUSSION...Tonight through next Friday. Early afternoon
satellite imagery was showing weak convection over the CNTRL
mountains in the wake of an ejecting disturbance currently lifting
NNE through the panhandle. Further destabilization this afternoon
will likely result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity.
Further south and west, a second broader disturbance was ejecting
from the coastal low which is expected to reach Boise sometime
around 6 PM with attending thunderstorm activity translating north
and east into the CNTRL mountains and Eastern Magic Valley area.
Convective debris and weak showers will likely shift east through
the Snake Plain and NE mountains late tonight. By Saturday
afternoon, the low moves into SW Oregon with a dry SSW flow
spreading north into the Snake Plain and SE mountains through the
day and strong dynamical support for enhanced thunderstorm activity
overspreading WRN Idaho and perhaps the western portion of the CNTRL
mountains. The low lifts further north and east into NW Montana by
Sunday with attending showers and thunderstorms shifting north into
WRN Montana Sunday evening. A dry and breezy west flow overspreads
the region in the wake of the exiting low Monday through Wednesday.
With the passing low and westerly flow, winds are expected to remain
below advisory criteria Saturday through Wednesday. By Thursday, the
next Pacific low settles into the NW coast. Run to run placement of
the low has varied considerably with associated weather impacts
varying from clear skies to a chance of showers. Huston
&&
.AVIATION...A chance for lowered VIS will exist in association with
quick moving TS this evening. Confidence in TS on station is low
with the best chances at DIJ this afternoon. VFR conditions are
otherwise anticipated. Winds should be below 15 kts outside of
outflow winds and gusts associated with thunderstorm activity.
Expect shifting directions after midnight. NP
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered thunderstorms will exist across
mountainous terrain through early tomorrow morning with favored
areas across 475 and 476 and perhaps portions of 427 as well during
this time period. Moisture content in the storms may very well
provide decent wetting rains of 30 to 40 percent this evening. There
will be a brief break around sunrise tomorrow morning before
convection begins again late tomorrow morning across 475 alongside a
cold front with storms then tracking slightly southeastward into 476
through the day. Substantially higher wetting rains are forecast
tomorrow into the 70+ percentages. Severe weather is also more
probable, with hail and damaging winds the result in addition to the
heavy rain. As a result of the scattered nature of the
thunderstorms and all the parameters listed above during this
extended period of time we will go forward with a Red Flag Warning
from late this afternoon through Saturday evening. Outflow from the
storms may impact the northern portions of 410 and 411. Gusty winds
with abrupt changes in wind direction can be expected in and near
any thunderstorm activity. The southern half of Idaho is expected to
remain dry and unaffected by these thunderstorms; however, strong
southerly winds are expected to develop over 413, 427 and 410 ahead
of the frontal boundary. Border line critical fire weather
conditions are noted in these areas as a result for Saturday
afternoon and early evening and fire starts are possible from the
dry and windy conditions. Sunday and Monday look to bring increased
moisture to the region with little to no fire weather concerns
before drier conditions redevelop into the region Tuesday, along
with some windier conditions. NP
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning for scattered thunderstorms 3 PM this afternoon to
9 PM Saturday evening IDZ475-476.
&&
Debris Flow, Blaine
- When
- August 9, 3:00 PM MST to 8:00 PM MST
- Where
- Blaine County, 4 mi W of Ketchum to 4 mi S of Ketchum
- Cause
- Heavy Rain
- Reported by
- County Official
- Coordinates
- 43.680, -114.450
On August 9th a mud slide occurred one mile past the east fort of Baker Creek. Warm Springs Road was impassable from the west of the Hot Springs in Ketchum. 3 to 5 inches of mud covered the road.
- Debris Flow
- A fast-moving slurry of mud, rock and debris, usually on a slope soaked by heavy rain or stripped by a fire.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Tornado and Hail in Virginia, August 9, 20191 injured · $325,000 · EF1 · 6 events
- Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds in South Dakota, August 9 to 10, 2019$645,000 · 56 kt wind · 7 events
- Flash Flooding and Hail in Idaho, August 9 to 10, 2019$210,000 · 2.75 in hail · 4 events
- Flash Flooding in Arkansas, August 9, 2019$160,000 · 6 events
- Flash Flood and Flood in Oregon, August 9, 2019$56,000 · 1 in hail · 14 events
- Tornado and Flood in South Dakota, August 9, 2019EF0 · 13 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, August 9, 2019$11,000 · 1.5 in hail · 5 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Nebraska, August 9, 20191.25 in hail · 6 events
- Hail and Damaging Wind in South Dakota, August 9, 20191.75 in hail · 5 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in South Dakota, August 9, 20191 in hail · 5 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Virginia, August 9, 2019$5,000 · 1 in hail · 4 events
- Marine Thunderstorm Winds in North Atlantic Coastal Waters, August 9, 20193 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 848655.