Hail in Georgia, August 19, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
521 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure and elevated moisture will persist across
the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia through Wednesday. A
moist cold front will approach the region Thursday and become
stationary on Friday. The front will gradually settle south of the
area through the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north
and maintains cooler than normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 510 PM: Situated in between a ridge of high pressure both to
the west and east, as a few upper shortwaves swing through overhead,
an unsettled weather pattern persists across the western Carolinas
and northeast Georgia this evening. A weak deformation zone is
present aloft, with a small 500mb low over south Georgia. Convection
has focused along an axis from NE Alabama, across our I-85 corridor
and into central NC. Storm motions are erratic, reflecting weak
shear, but the consensus of meso models gradually propagates
activity southward thru the evening--possibly as outflows enter
the more unstable lower Piedmont zones. Updated PoPs trend this way.

A few light showers overnight could not be entirely ruled out
with moist low levels and a slight southerly upslope flow. With
the expectation of mid to high level clouds overhead through the
overnight hours as weak sfc low meanders north into the area, expect
min temperatures to remain above normal. Some of the guidance/fcst
soundings continued to suggest fog development towards daybreak
on Tuesday, but confidence is fairly low attm given anticipated
cloud cover.

A similar pattern is expected on Tuesday, though the potential for
strong to severe storms will be slightly less. Temperatures will
remain just above normal, with heat indices in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1:35 PM EDT Monday: the short-term forecast picks up at 00z on
Wednesday with our region stuck between upper ridging to the west and
weaker upper ridging over the Western Atlantic. On Wed, broad upper
trofing begins to dig down across the Great Lakes as the ridges amplify
on either side of us. On Thurs, the upper trof persists over the Great
Lakes as heights fall over our area and upper-lvl flow strengthens
from the west. At the sfc, the Bermuda High will continue to be the
main driver of our synoptic pattern thru most of the period, keeping
a moist, tropical airmass over the CWFA. On Thurs, a moist cold front
will make its way southeastward from the Ohio River Valley and approach
the fcst area early Thurs. The front is expected to move through the
CWFA late Thurs and into early Fri. No major changes were needed for
the sensible fcst with above climatology PoPs each day, with Thurs
carrying likely PoPs across roughly the northern half of the CWFA.
Instability will be decent each day/evening, with little in the way
of shear on Wed and a bit more on Thursday as the front approaches.
Instability will probably be limited to some extent on Thursday as
cloud cover is expected to increase thru the day. Temperatures will
remain just above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Monday: An slow moving cold front will continue
pushing over the FA to begin the ext range. With the upper flow
becoming more diffuse the front will become broad and stall while
slowly drifting south thru Fri. Good agreement is seen in the latest
guidance in developing a 1024 mb Canadian high over the Midwest
early Fri and traversing it east thru the period and this shud setup
a wedge scenario across the FA thru the weekend.

In the meantime...good instability will be had along and ahead of
the sfc bndry which will instigate deep tstms. Deep layered
shear remains quite low however...so the mode will likely remain
pusley with multicellular lines probable into the evening. The latest
GFS is the quickest with bringing in ne/ly flow within the sfc-h8
layer Fri afternoon at KHKY and then arnd 00z at KGSP. The other op
models are much slower with the wedge idea development arnd 12z Sat.
So...some uncertainty is had with the onset time of more stable air
and a general decrease in thunder activity Fri evening.

The wedge does look to become mature by Sat afternoon tho and expect
Atl and GOM moisture adv to reinforce the pattern...which could
linger into Mon per the GFS. Max temps on Fri will be right arnd
normal...then below normal temps by a couple cats or so over the
weekend. PoPs will remain abv normal outside the mtns in isentropic
lift...with the wedge bndry likely become convectively active across
the extreme ern to sw/rn zones each afternoon Sat and Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR prevails at all TAF sites this afternoon,
with convection already blossoming across the entire forecast area.
Thus, all TAF sites have prevailing VCSH/VCTS for the afternoon
hours, with TEMPO groups to account for possible short-lived flight
restrictions due to any SHRA/TSRA that moves over a TAF site. Expect
convection to wane into tonight, with lingering mid to high level
clouds and light winds. Latest fcst soundings continue to suggest
the potential for stratus, while some are hinting at fog
development. Confidence is low in regards to fog given the
anticipated cloud cover, but attm, could not entirely rule it out
towards daybreak.

Outlook: The potential for afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms is expected to increase throughout the week, as a cold
front approaches from the NW into Thursday. Morning fog and low
stratus will be possible each day across the mountain valleys.
Otherwise, expect VFR.

Confidence Table...

            21-03z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High  98%     High  97%     High  96%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  81%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High  97%     High  96%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  85%     High  90%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...SGL/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...SGL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
432 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-200845-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
432 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the area this
afternoon, especially near the eastern escarpment of the Blue Ridge
Mountains. Cloud-to-ground lightning, brief heavy downpours, and
locally gusty winds will be the primary threats with these
thunderstorms. A few of the storms may be strong enough to produce
damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, or flash flooding to our office.

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
535 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

GAZ018-026-SCZ001-004-192200-
Franklin GA-Stephens GA-Greater Oconee SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
535 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...CENTRAL
STEPHENS AND CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

At 535 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Toccoa, or 6 miles southwest of Westminster,
moving west at 5 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Toccoa, Walhalla, Westminster, Gumlog, Martin, Avalon, Lake Keowee,
Long Creek, Boydville and Eastanolee.

Wind gusts up to 55 mph and nickel size hail will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3479 8295 3446 8310 3454 8338 3484 8323
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 091DEG 4KT 3463 8320

Carroll

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
542 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

SCZ019-192215-
Greenwood SC-
542 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL GREENWOOD COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM EDT...

At 542 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southeast of Greenwood, or near Ninety Six Historic Site. This
storm was nearly stationary.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenwood, Ninety Six, Lake Greenwood State Park, Lake Greenwood,
Greenwood State Park, Ninety Six Historic Site, Coronaca, Dyson,
Epworth and Kirksey.

Wind gusts up to 55 mph and nickel size hail will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3415 8224 3432 8216 3422 8196 3420 8194
      3419 8192 3418 8192 3418 8191 3416 8191
      3415 8190 3413 8187 3410 8190 3409 8192
      3404 8194 3401 8198
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 111DEG 3KT 3414 8206

Carroll

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
544 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

GAZ026-192215-
Franklin GA-
544 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY
UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 544 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southeast of Carnesville, or over Victoria Bryant State Park.
This storm was nearly stationary.

Locations to be impacted include...
Carnesville, Canon, Franklin Springs, Victoria Bryant State Park and
Royston.

Wind gusts up to 55 mph and nickel size hail will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3425 8320 3424 8321 3425 8324 3424 8325
      3426 8328 3425 8329 3426 8329 3425 8332
      3441 8329 3440 8310 3428 8311 3424 8317
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 111DEG 3KT 3431 8316

Carroll

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
545 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

SCZ002-003-005-006-010-192215-
Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-Anderson SC-
Greenville Mountains SC-Greater Greenville SC-
545 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL GREENVILLE...
NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON AND NORTHEASTERN PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM
EDT...

At 545 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Greenville Downtown, or over West Greenville. This storm was nearly
stationary.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenville Downtown, Easley, Greenville Eastside, West Greenville,
Berea, Welcome, Powdersville, Piedmont, Travelers Rest and
Slater-Marietta.

Wind gusts up to 55 mph and nickel size hail will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3513 8236 3469 8232 3465 8255 3511 8262
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 092DEG 2KT 3484 8243

Carroll

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
549 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLEMSON                 34.68N 82.81W
08/19/2019                   PICKENS            SC   SOCIAL MEDIA

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON THE CAMPUS OF CLEMSON UNIVERSITY.

&&

OUTLAW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
555 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

NCZ037-057-192230-
Rowan NC-Davie NC-
555 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN DAVIE AND NORTH
CENTRAL ROWAN COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

At 555 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Mocksville, or near Cooleemee. This storm was nearly
stationary.

Locations to be impacted include...
Cooleemee, Fork Church and Woodleaf.

Wind gusts up to 55 mph and nickel size hail will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3589 8037 3589 8040 3588 8042 3586 8039
      3584 8039 3585 8042 3583 8043 3583 8046
      3584 8047 3583 8049 3581 8047 3579 8048
      3577 8045 3573 8045 3571 8057 3587 8062
      3591 8037
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 081DEG 3KT 3580 8051

Carroll