Abundant tropical moisture across the area with a mid-level shortwave moving across the region. A southwesterly wind flow allowed for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to move towards the east coast metro in the afternoon.
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The episode as NWS MFL wrote it up.
Abundant tropical moisture across the area with a mid-level shortwave moving across the region. A southwesterly wind flow allowed for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to move towards the east coast metro in the afternoon. These storms produced high rainfall rates leading to flooding of streets across areas of Miami-Dade County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Miami, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 8, 12:45 PM EST, 45 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 145 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019 .AVIATION... Off and on showers and a few thunderstorms look to continue throughout the afternoon to early evening hours with occasional MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty winds up to 25 kt for all east coast terminals. KMIA, KTMB, and KOPF already saw VSBY's less than 1/2 SM and this could occur once again with the heavier thunderstorms. Main concern is that storms are moving parallel along the east coast TAFs and the current TEMPO group may have to be extended through later into the evening. With deep moisture sticking around and with lgt/vrb winds overnight, will have to monitor for low stratus sticking around. Chances for showers/thunderstorms increase again Tuesday so handled with PROB30 groups for now. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 945 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019/ UPDATE... 12Z WPC surface analysis depicts a trough axis just to the west of Florida with plenty of moisture to go around. A shortwave skirting across coastal central FL and digging down over MFL's Gulf waters has sparked scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms this morning, some of which are now advecting into Naples and other coastal Gulf cities. With both surface and 700 mb southwest flow prevailing across the east coast and northwest across the west coast, general storm motion will be SW to NE along the east coast and NW to SE along the west coast today. Looking at MFL's 08/12Z sounding, the PW is 1.98 inches, which is 0.23 inches above the daily mean for today and also 0.05 inches above the 75th percentile. Additionally, the 500 mb temps are on the warmer side at about -4.9 degrees C. The average 500 mb temps for today are roughly -6.92 degrees C, so this will work to obstruct vertical storm growth. Ample cloud coverage this morning will also work to dissuade significant storm development has daytime heating is slightly hindered. Regardless, scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are expected to develop today due to a surge in deep moisture across the region, especially along the east coast due to those SW winds. Have upped POPs across this region to reflect that. Main threat looks to be frequent lightning as RAOB analysis supports that the atmosphere is too moist for frequent wind gusts. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 748 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019/ DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM: A wet and stormy pattern across South Florida the next few days. The Atlantic ridge as retreated into the Atlantic with a mid-level trough across the southeastern US. Wind flow has shifted to southwesterly across the region. This will continue to pump tropical moisture into South Florida. The 00Z MFL sounding had a precipitable water value of 2.12 inches. Values are expected to stay above 2 inches through at least mid-week. With the increased moisture and the mid-level trough shower and thunderstorm chances will remain elevated the next few days with an increase in coverage as well. Convection will develop over the Gulf and west coast and move east towards the interior and east coast metro in the afternoon and evening. A surface trough or broad area of low pressure will develop along a stalled front over the southeast US and linger in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico as we move into Tuesday only helping to enhance the moisture and onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico. Models have PWATs of 2.25+ and continued increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms. High tropical rainfall rates, slow storm motion and training storms will lead to increasing potential of heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding. The Weather Prediction Center currently has a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for the southwest coast of Florida expanding over to the Miami metro on Tuesday due to the even more increased moisture surge. Any of the storms that develop the next few days will be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes and brief gusty winds. The main hazard will be the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding. MID-LATE WEEK: In the mid-range all eyes turn to the northern Gulf. A broad area of low pressure will form over the northern Gulf in the next couple of days. The National Hurricane Center has a 70 percent of development as of 2AM EDT in the next 5 days as the low meanders near the northern Gulf coast. While there is increasing chances of development, the models are still struggling with exactly where the low moves. Global models have been inconsistent run to run with the location from the Northeast Gulf to the Western Gulf. The development and location of how this low moves will have an impact on South Florida flow and moisture. Currently, the forecast keeps elevated rain chances through Thursday with trend towards drier conditions for the weekend as the Atlantic ridge begins to build and some drier air moves into the area. There is low confidence in the extended forecast as the proximity of the low pressure to Florida whether it is the NE or Western Gulf will impact when the Atlantic ridge can begin to build back into South Florida. MARINE... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast throughout the period, with highest chances and coverage today through mid-week. In and around any showers and thunderstorms gusty erratic winds and frequent lightning will be possible. Winds will be south/southwesterly through the week. Seas in the Atlantic and Gulf will be generally 2 feet or less, with building seas in the Gulf possible late week.&& && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... West Palm Beach 76 89 77 91 / 40 60 40 60 Fort Lauderdale 77 88 78 90 / 40 60 40 50 Miami 76 88 77 90 / 40 60 40 50 Naples 76 88 77 88 / 60 70 60 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && UPDATE...03/Fell DISCUSSION...33/Kelly MARINE...33/Kelly AVIATION...03/Fell
Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida National Weather Service Miami FL 915 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019 AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676- 090115- Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay- Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM- Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry- Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier- Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade- Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami- Dade-Far South Miami-Dade- Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM- Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- 915 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019 ...WET WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING THROUGH MID WEEK... ...INCREASE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WEST COAST BEACHES MID TO LATE WEEK... This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT Thunderstorms: Scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast for today with greatest concentration across the western areas this morning shifting to the eastern areas in the afternoon. Main concerns with storms today will be locally heavy rainfall (particularly across urban areas) and occasional to frequent lightning strikes. Flooding: Slow movement of storms could result in ponding of water on roadways and street flooding. Temperatures: Despite increasing chances of rain, maximum heat indices could reach 100-104 degrees across portions of the interior for short periods of time. Waterspouts: Atmospheric conditions are somewhat favorable for the development of waterspouts across the Gulf and Atlantic waters of South Florida. Mariners are advised to exercise caution. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY An increasingly unsettled weather pattern is expected through at least mid-week with showers and thunderstorms likely. This is in part associated with a disturbance across the northeast Gulf which the National Hurricane Center places at a 80 percent chance of developing during the week. Regardless of development, the main concern for South Florida is the potential for locally heavy rainfall especially Tuesday into Wednesday. There is an increasing risk for rip currents along the Gulf coast for mid to late week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual spotters are encouraged to report flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami. For more information...visit the National Weather Service in Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami. FELL
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Miami FL 1237 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019 FLZ073-074-173-081715- Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Inland Miami-Dade County FL- Coastal Miami Dade County FL- 1237 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY UNTIL 115 PM EDT... * At 1237 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles west of Miccosukee Resort to The Redland. Movement was northeast at 15 mph. * Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds possible with these storms. * Locations impacted include... Miami, Coral Gables, South Miami, The Redland, Kendall, Doral, Hialeah Gardens, Pinecrest, Sweetwater, West Miami, Medley, Westchester, Glenvar Heights, Palmetto Bay, University Of Miami, Zoo Miami, Goulds, Coral Terrace, Olympia Heights and Miccosukee Resort. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the storm passes. To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and Twitter. && LAT...LON 2595 8041 2564 8018 2550 8053 2576 8071 TIME...MOT...LOC 1637Z 237DEG 13KT 2574 8060 2556 8047 FELL
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
122 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019
FLZ072>074-172-173-081800-
Coastal Broward County FL-Metro Broward County FL-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
122 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHERN
BROWARD COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...
* At 121 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
tracking a strong thunderstorm over Westview, or over Hialeah,
moving northeast at 30 mph.
* Wind gusts up to 50 mph possible with this storm.
* Locations impacted include...
Miami, Hialeah, Fort Lauderdale, Pembroke Pines, Hollywood,
Miramar, Davie, Miami Beach, Plantation, Sunrise, Tamarac, Coral
Gables, South Miami, Lauderdale-By-The-Sea, Surfside, Miami
Gardens, Virginia Key, Hallandale, Kendall and Lauderhill.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.
&&
LAT...LON 2583 8004 2578 8005 2566 8038 2613 8036
2623 8004
TIME...MOT...LOC 1721Z 239DEG 25KT 2586 8026
CFPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
148 PM EDT MON JUL 08 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0138 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 2 SE NORTH MIAMI BEACH 25.91N 80.14W
07/08/2019 M41 MPH AMZ630 FL MESONET
MESONET MDRF4 IN BAL HARBOUR MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 41
MPH / 36 KTS AT 138 PM.
&&
EVENT NUMBER MFL1900114
FISHERThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Doral Police Department reported road closures due to heavy rainfall in the area. 2 to 4 inches of rain fell in 1-2 hours across the area.
Multiple reports from broadcast media of flooded roadways in Hialeah from heavy rainfall. Rainfall estimates were 2 to 3 inches in the area in a period of 1-2 hours.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, July 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 844788, 844789.