A mid-level trough moving across the region brought an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region. With easterly flow most of the storms concentrated over the interior and Gulf coast in the afternoon and evening.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFL wrote it up.
A mid-level trough moving across the region brought an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region. With easterly flow most of the storms concentrated over the interior and Gulf coast in the afternoon and evening. Lightning from these storms caused an apartment fire in Naples causing extensive damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Miami, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 18, 9:05 AM EST, 3 hours 25 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1005 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019 .UPDATE... Isolated showers and thunderstorms have made their way across the Atlantic into the east coast metro areas early this morning. The 12Z MIA sounding reveals light southeast to easterly flow through 700mb, which should help focus convection mainly across the interior as both the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes make their way inland through the afternoon and early evening. With CAPE values capable of reaching 4000 j/kg given ample daytime heating, frequent lightning and gusty winds are the the main hazards with any stronger storms that develop. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 732 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019/ AVIATION... Generally VFR conditions expected for all sites through the period. A few SHRA continue to push across most of the east coast terminals this morning. Have kept VCSH in through 15-16Z with the exception of KPBI, where VCSH should arrive by 13Z as showers gradually lift north. Convective coverage should push inland through the afternoon, allowing for VCTS at KAPF from 17-00Z. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 237 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019/ DISCUSSION... Interesting times in the sub-tropics as South Florida sits under a ridge of Atlantic high pressure. To the north, the mid-latitudes are alive with a trough of low pressure sitting over the northeastern United States. The surface flow around the Atlantic high pressure will continue out of the southeast with plenty of tropical moisture to continue across the region through the coming days. Today and Tonight: A mid-level trough will push across the area today with increasing rain and storm chances this morning over the east coast with the convective focus shifting westward as the day continues. Afternoon and evening convection over the interior and Gulf Coast could see some enhancement from the presence of this feature. It would not be surprising that some stronger pulse storms today could be possible with the potential for creating gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. 500 mb temperatures cooling to -8 deg C today point towards steeper lapse rates for convection. The shear profile today appears to be lacking in both directional and magnitudal shear on the larger scale, so any shear will likely be local to boundary interactions. Temperatures may not be as warm as in previous days due to the earlier convective start expected but many areas could still reach into the mid 90s inland and west today. Convection could linger into the evening, but should push westward and eventually into the Gulf with the clearance of the mid-level trough from the area. Friday: South Florida remains under the moist southeasterly flow of the Atlantic high. The mid-level trough lingers over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, potentially keeping convection active over the waters with rain chances that could sneak back towards the coast depending on the location of the trough. The convection on Friday will generally be diurnally driven along the sea breezes, leading to a slightly drier forecast compared to today. Temperatures will once again have a chance to warm with much of the area expected to reach into the mid 90s with some upper 90s not outside the realm of possibility inland. The Weekend: The pattern becomes more unsettled for the weekend as the mid-latitudes come knocking on our door with a trough digging into the southeastern United States. To the south, the mid-level feature trapped over the northeastern Gulf becomes a bit more interesting as it interacts with the approaching trough. As the weekend approaches, we will have to watch the status of this feature for potential impacts to portions of the region. Additional rainfall and storm coverage is possible, particularly if this mid-level feature is able to develop a bit more and a surface feature were to also develop. The large scale mid-level trough will settle over the eastern seaboard of the United States amplifying southwestward into southern Florida. This will allow for higher rain chances over the weekend mainly from diurnal convection related to the sea breeze circulations each afternoon and evening. Temperatures will remain on the warm side with little relief expected. Next Week: As Monday rolls around, a tropical wave currently near 55W may push close to the region. If not the wave itself, possibly the associated moisture could reach our area. This could lead to some higher rain and storm chances. Timing is becoming more similar between the global guidance early next week with this feature. Coincidentally, a frontal boundary could push into the southeastern United States as the moisture from this easterly wave turns north along the edge of the surface high, enhancing the heavy rain potential in the extended forecast period across a good portion of the state and region. A few model solutions get very complicated with a mid-level feature potentially even becoming cutoff from the main trough. At this point, things in the extended are somewhat uncertain and are worth monitoring in case the Gulf of Mexico becomes a bit more active. The current solution brings a rainy, stormy pattern north of our area but any potential shift like the trough reaching southward into our area or a surface low possibly developing in the Gulf could bring substantial changes to the extended forecast for next week. MARINE... Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be the main hazards, particularly around Lake Okeechobee and the Gulf coastal waters. Overnight storms are also possible, particularly over the Atlantic and Gulf waters. An easterly wave, or the associated moisture, could push into the region early next week bringing an increase in rain and storm chances and possibly increasing winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... West Palm Beach 91 80 92 79 / 80 10 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 89 82 91 80 / 90 10 20 30 Miami 91 81 92 80 / 50 10 20 20 Naples 91 77 92 77 / 40 10 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && UPDATE...11/HVN
Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida National Weather Service Miami FL 944 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019 AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676- 190145- Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay- Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM- Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry- Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier- Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade- Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami- Dade-Far South Miami-Dade- Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM- Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- 944 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019 ...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON... ...HEAT INDEX ABOVE 105 FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST... This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT Thunderstorms: Thunderstorms are possible, especially over the Interior and Gulf coast areas this afternoon into the early evening hours. The primary impacts will be frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and brief periods of heavy rainfall. Wind: The strongest storms over the Interior and Gulf coast areas will have the potential to produce wind gusts of 45 mph or greater. Temperatures: Maximum heat index values will be in the 105 to 107 range over the Interior and Gulf coast areas. Waterspouts: A few waterspouts are possible over the local waters. Rip Currents: There is a slight risk of rip currents at the Atlantic beaches. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY Thunderstorms will continue to favor the interior and Gulf coast areas through the weekend and into next week, however scattered thunderstorms are also forecast to affect portions of the east coast metro areas from Sunday into the middle of next week. The main hazards will be lightning, gusty winds, and ponding of water on roadways in poor drainage and in low laying areas.. Heat index values are expected to reach 105 to 108 degrees over interior and Gulf coast areas on Friday. A slight risk of rip currents will continue at the Atlantic beaches through the weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual spotters are encouraged to report high wind and flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami. For more information...visit the National Weather Service in Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
107 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019
FLZ069-070-181745-
Coastal Collier County FL-Inland Collier County FL-
107 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY UNTIL 145
PM EDT...
* At 105 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
tracking a strong thunderstorm near Royal Palm Hammock, or 12 miles
northeast of Marco Island, moving northwest at 15 mph.
* Small hail and winds in excess of 45 mph possible with this storm.
* Locations impacted include...
Naples, Golden Gate Estates, Belle Meade, Marco Island Airport,
Orangetree, Naples Manor, Golden Gate, East Naples, Lely Resort,
West Toll Gate On Alligator Alley, Royal Palm Hammock, Lely, South
Blocks Golde, Rookery Bay Aquatic Preserve, Fakahatchee Strand
State Preserve, Picayune Strand State Forest, Port Of The Island,
Intersection I-75 And Everglades Blvd and Fiddlers Creek.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. If
you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck! Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.
&&
LAT...LON 2607 8184 2637 8159 2613 8132 2588 8152
2606 8185
TIME...MOT...LOC 1705Z 137DEG 11KT 2605 8156
HVNThe Miami radar (KAMX), 156 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:26 UTC.
1 lightning. Local standard time, as filed.
Multiple Broadcast media reports of an apartment fire loacated at the Emerald Woods Apartment Complex in North Naples. The cause of the fire was determined to be from a lightning strike associated with a storm in the area. There was damage to two units with one having significant damage.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, July 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 844800.