Drought in Florida, January 15 to 29, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
649 AM EST Tue Jan 15 2019

.AVIATION...
BKN ceilings 3,500-4,000 ft east coast and 2,500-3,000 ft Gulf
coast will persist through around 15z, with gradual scattering of
the cloud layers through the rest of the period. VFR will prevail
with wind mainly 320-350 degrees at 8-10 knots, diminishing to
around 5-7 knots after 00z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 259 AM EST Tue Jan 15 2019/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT: A cool morning across South Florida behind the
cold front passage yesterday. High pressure will build across the
southeastern US with a cool and dry airmass in place. Temperatures
today will range from the upper 60s around the Lake Okeechobee
region to the low to mid 70s across the metro regions.

Tonight another cold night is in store as the northerly winds
persist continuing to allow cooler air into the region. Lows
tonight will be in the low to mid 40s near Lake Okeechobee and the
interior, upper 40s near 50 for the Gulf coast, low to mid 50s over
the east coast metro.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: Cool and dry airmass with high pressure
dominating the weather pattern As the high slowly moves eastward as
the week progresses winds will gradually veer from northerly to
northeasterly throughout the week. As this occurs temperatures will
gradually moderate into the mid 70s to upper 70s near 80 as we start
the weekend.

SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK: Models are in fairly good agreement in the
extended forecast an upper level trough will be sweeping across the
CONUS with a surface low moving across the plains and into the Mid-
Atlantic late this weekend. A cold front draped to the south of the
low will move across the Gulf and into our region to end the
weekend. As of now timing looks to be Sunday into Sunday night.
However, being several days away in the extended timing could
change. THe front will bring an increase in rain chances as it moves
through the region with right now leaving thunder out of the
forecast with just showers for now.

Colder temperatures and a dry airmass arrive behind the front as a
strong high pressure builds over the eastern half of the US. How low
temperatures drop will become more clear as we approach next week.

MARINE...
High pressure building over the southeastern CONUS with a
northerly wind around 10 knots. Seas will be generally 3-4 feet in
both the Gulf and Atlantic waters today. Northerly swell and
increasing wave heights in the Gulf stream tonight into tomorrow.
Winds will gradually veer northeasterly then easterly towards the
as we approach the end of the week.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the forecast period as dry northerly wind
flow becomes established across South Florida. FEW/SCT040
primarily at east coast sites, with perhaps brief BKN ceilings
before 15z. Wind N-NW 5-8 knots through 14z, then increasing
slightly to 8-10 knots after 14z.

FIRE WEATHER...
Cool and dry airmass with high pressure in place across the
region. Minimum relative humidity values are expected to drop
into the upper 30s and 40s for most of the week, with the lowest
at 30-35 percent across the western interior on Wednesday.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  70  52  72  57 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  72  55  73  60 /   0   0   0  10
Miami            73  55  74  59 /   0   0   0  10
Naples           70  49  72  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

AVIATION...59/Molleda

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
329 AM EST Tue Jan 15 2019

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
160000-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
329 AM EST Tue Jan 15 2019

...Building Seas Atlantic Waters Tonight...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Waves: Seas are expected to build to at least 6 feet in the Atlantic
waters off Palm Beach County tonight.

No other hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

The rip current risk will increase at the Atlantic beaches
Wednesday, especially at beaches of Palm Beach and Broward
counties, and remain elevated through Saturday.

Seas will be around 6 feet in the Atlantic waters off Palm Beach
County into Thursday.

A cold front is expected to move across Florida on Sunday, with
deteriorating marine conditions. Colder air behind the front may
result in temperatures dropping into the 30s and 40s across most of
South Florida. Further details will be provided as the week
progresses.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

Molleda