What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Miami, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 28, 12:46 PM EST, 1 hour 14 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 28, 12:46 PM EST, 1 hour 14 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1246 PM EST Sat Dec 28 2019
.Aviation...
Scattered SHRA continue to quickly brush the east coast
terminals, briefly lowering cigs at times. Have included tempos
from KFXE to KMIA to account for periodic MVFR conditions.
Conditions should improve by 21Z as coverage has begun to
gradually push westward across the interior towards KAPF.
Prevailing SE winds should diminsh overnight before becoming gusty
again tomorrow.
&&
.Prev Discussion... /issued 914 AM EST Sat Dec 28 2019/
Update...
There's no question that it's a soggy Saturday across South
Florida, as showers continue to push onshore from the Atlantic.
Moreover, localized areas across northeastern Palm Beach County
have already received healthy rainfall accumulations around half a
foot this morning. With the WPC maintaining a Marginal Risk for
Excessive Rainfall across the east coast metro areas, the concern
for urban flooding continues as a shallow swath of moisture
traverses around the southwestern periphery of high pressure
centered to our northeast. This swath of moisture is well noted
on satellite derived PWATs along the eastern half of the area, as
well as the 28.12Z MIA sounding, where moisture has increased
through 650mb.
Through the remainder of the day, convective allowing models are
hinting that this ribbon of moisture could migrate westward across
the interior as the aforementioned high sinks further southward.
The western leading edge of moisture and line of showers has
begun to slowly drift westward across the interior. Therefore,
the flooding potential and concerns could shift towards the Gulf
coast late this afternoon into tonight.
Prev Discussion... /issued 158 AM EST Sat Dec 28 2019/
Short Term...
Marginal Risk for Excessive Rain Continues...
Today and Tonight...
A upper level ridge continues to sit over the region. At the
surface, high pressure has moved south and is over the western
Atlantic, east northeast of the region. There is ample moisture
wrapping around this high and is bringing rain showers to the
eastern half of the CWA. The sounding shows a strong inversion
above 700mb, and even a weaker one above 850mb. This has kept any
thunderstorms from being able to develop. Most of the tops of the
showers are generally not exceeding 10k ft, although some
isolated cells are nearing 20k ft. Looking at the moisture, the
gradient of PWATs has been mainly from Broward County, north. But,
models are indicating the high will build westward through the
morning and into the afternoon, pushing the showers towards the
interior and west coast later today. This should help to reduce
the flood threat for the east coast metro areas later today.
Regardless, through the morning hours, the showers have been
effective rain producers, with radar well underestimating rainfall
amounts. And, given the now saturated nature of the area, urban
flooding with even modest amounts of rain may be possible.
By early Sunday morning, models are indicating most of the
precipitation should either be off or over the Gulf coast,
allowing for quieter weather for the east coast by Sunday morning.
Long Term...
Sunday through late week...
On Sunday into Monday, the chances of showers will diminsh somewhat
as mid-level ridging amplifies over the region. This will allow for
some drier air to work its way in. Don't get too used to it because
later Monday into Tuesday, an area of low pressure pinpointing the
Great Lakes Region will slide over to the NE CONUS. A cold front
will extend down from this system in to the Gulf of Mexico and
eventually the Florida peninsula. Both the GFS and ECMWF show the
frontal passage through South Florida late on Tuesday and into
early Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers will precede the
front thanks to a moist pre-frontal airmass in place across the
region. Forecast PW's soar back into the 1.70 to 2.00 inch range
thanks to moist southerly flow and decent WAA. No thunderstorms
are anticipated with this front.
Behind the cold front, a much drier air mass will move into the
region and it will minimize the shower chances by the middle of the
week. Even though the air mass will be drier, it will not bring much
in the way of cooler air to the region. New Years Day is forecast
to have high temperatures in the mid 70s with morning low
temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Otherwise, high
temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s and low
temperatures will drop into the low to mid 60s.
By the end of the forecast period, rain chances return as flow veers
back to the E-SE direction, bringing in that all too common Atlantic
moisture. Models are hinting at a stronger front sometime next
weekend but will continue to monitor as we advance into the upcoming
week.
Marine...
high pressure to the east northeast is set to maintain the east
wind through the weekend. Models are varying with the wind speeds,
and although some of the Atlantic waters are forecast to drop
below 20 kts, there is enough uncertainty, and period where they
do pick back up to over 20kts, that the Small Craft Advisory will
remain in effect through Sunday evening at this time. With the
wind being out of the east, the seas a very gradually subsiding in
the Atlantic, and are only up to around 2 ft in the offshore Gulf
waters. Showers continue to be possible through the weekend for
all South Florida waters this weekend. A cold front next week
should bring a weak, northerly wind back to the area by mid week,
which may cause seas to build slightly. However, current forecasts
keep wave heights from being a significant concern at this time.
Beach Forecast...
An easterly wind will keep a High Risk for Rip Currents for the
Atlantic beaches through the weekend. by Monday, the wind should
shift to the south, gradually reducing the risk through the middle
of the week.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
West Palm Beach 78 70 79 70 / 60 40 30 20
Fort Lauderdale 78 73 79 72 / 70 30 20 20
Miami 79 72 79 71 / 60 30 20 20
Naples 80 68 80 67 / 40 30 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...None.
&&
Aviation...11/HVNHazardous weather outlook, Dec 28, 9:59 AM EST, 4 hours 1 minute before
Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
959 AM EST Sat Dec 28 2019
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
290300-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
959 AM EST Sat Dec 28 2019
...URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE, MAINLY EAST COAST METRO AREAS...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES...
This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
Rip currents: A High Rip Current Risk is in effect for the Atlantic
beaches through at least Sunday evening.
Flooding: Urban and street flooding remains possible for the east
coast metro areas through the rest of the day, especially northern
coastal and metro Palm Beach, which received localized rainfall
amounts up to half a foot this morning. However, there is increasing
certainty that the flooding potential could expand towards the west
coast this afternoon into tonight.
Winds and waves: Hazardous marine conditions are expected for the
Atlantic waters.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A high risk for rip currents continues for the Atlantic beaches
through at least Saturday evening.
Heavy rainfall and flooding are possible for the east coast metro
areas through this weekend. There is uncertainty in the timing,
location, and impacts however. Residents and visitors of South
Florida are encouraged to monitor the latest information from the
National Weather Service in Miami.
Hazardous marine conditions will continue for the Atlantic waters
through the weekend.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed.
For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.
In the hours before
Local storm report, Dec 28, 10:00 AM EST, 4 hours before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1000 AM EST SAT DEC 28 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0958 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 W JUPITER 26.93N 80.13W
12/28/2019 M5.94 INCH PALM BEACH FL PUBLIC
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION SINCE AROUND 1 AM EST NEAR
CORNER OF WHITE WING LANE AND BUSH ROAD...STATION ID
KFLJUPIT1017.
&&
EVENT NUMBER MFL1900324
COHENLocal storm report, Dec 28, 10:07 AM EST, 3 hours 53 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1007 AM EST SAT DEC 28 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0930 AM FLOOD 3 SW JUPITER 26.90N 80.14W
12/28/2019 PALM BEACH FL SOCIAL MEDIA
RECIEVED A VIDEO ON SOCIAL MEDIA FROM WPTV OF FLOODED
BACKYARDS NEAR PALM BEACH COUNTY ESTATES.
&&
EVENT NUMBER MFL1900325
HGWLocal storm report, Dec 28, 10:30 AM EST, 3 hours 30 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1030 AM EST SAT DEC 28 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0753 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 S JUPITER 26.90N 80.10W
12/28/2019 M4.20 INCH PALM BEACH FL MESONET
MESONET STATION DW1582 JUPITER. THE DURATION OF THE
HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 6 HOURS.
&&
EVENT NUMBER MFL1900326
COHENLocal storm report, Dec 28, 10:31 AM EST, 3 hours 29 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1031 AM EST SAT DEC 28 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 S JUNO BEACH 26.84N 80.05W
12/28/2019 M4.41 INCH PALM BEACH FL MESONET
MESONET STATION NRLTC 2 S JUNO BEACH. THE DURATION OF
THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 6 HOURS.
&&
EVENT NUMBER MFL1900327
COHENLocal storm report, Dec 28, 10:32 AM EST, 3 hours 28 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1032 AM EST SAT DEC 28 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0245 AM FLOOD 1 NE RIVIERA BEACH 26.79N 80.07W
12/28/2019 PALM BEACH FL LAW ENFORCEMENT
RIVIERA POLICE DEPARTMENT REPORTED THAT THE AREA NEAR
1033 SILVER BEACH ROAD WAS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT
WATER ON THE ROADWAY AND ADVISING THAT MOTORIST AVOID
THE AREA. THEY ALSO STATED WATER IS CLOSE TO ENCROACHING
ON STRUCTURES IN THE AREA. THIS IS NEAR THE INTERSECTION
OF SILVER BEACH RD AND OLD DIXIE HWY.
0654 AM FLOOD 2 W JUPITER 26.93N 80.13W
12/28/2019 PALM BEACH FL PUBLIC
ONGOING FLOODING NEAR CORNER OF WEST INDIANTOWN ROAD
AND MAPLEWOOD DRIVE. STANDING FLOOD WATER IS REPORTED AS
OVERTOPPING A PARKING LOT DIVIDER.
0708 AM FLOOD 2 W JUPITER 26.93N 80.14W
12/28/2019 PALM BEACH FL PUBLIC
AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT OF STANDING WATER NEAR
INTERSECTION OF WEST INDIANTOWN ROAD AND 68TH TERRACE
NORTH.
0753 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 S JUPITER 26.90N 80.10W
12/28/2019 M4.20 INCH PALM BEACH FL MESONET
MESONET STATION DW1582 JUPITER. THE DURATION OF THE
HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 6 HOURS.
0758 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 W JUPITER 26.93N 80.13W
12/28/2019 M5.72 INCH PALM BEACH FL PUBLIC
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION SINCE AROUND 1 AM EST NEAR
CORNER OF WHITE WING LANE AND BUSH ROAD...STATION ID
KFLJUPIT1017.
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 S JUNO BEACH 26.84N 80.05W
12/28/2019 M4.41 INCH PALM BEACH FL MESONET
MESONET STATION NRLTC 2 S JUNO BEACH. THE DURATION OF
THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 6 HOURS.
0814 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSW JUNO BEACH 26.86N 80.06W
12/28/2019 M5.41 INCH PALM BEACH FL PUBLIC
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION SINCE AROUND 1 AM EST NEAR
CORNER OF ARDLEY ROAD AND TUDOR ROAD...STATION ID
KFLJUNOB11.
0815 AM FLOOD 2 S JUPITER 26.90N 80.10W
12/28/2019 PALM BEACH FL SOCIAL MEDIA
AT LEAST ONE FOOT OF WATER ON ROADS NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF FREDERICK SMALL ROAD AND MILITARY TRAIL
WITH MOVING WATER NOTED, BASED ON SNAP MAP VIDEO.
0832 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SW JUPITER 26.90N 80.15W
12/28/2019 M5.50 INCH PALM BEACH FL PUBLIC
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION SINCE AROUND 1 AM EST NEAR
CORNER OF 75TH AVENUE NORTH AND 150TH COURT
NORTH...STATION ID KFLPALMB215.
0930 AM FLOOD 3 SW JUPITER 26.90N 80.14W
12/28/2019 PALM BEACH FL SOCIAL MEDIA
RECIEVED A VIDEO ON SOCIAL MEDIA FROM WPTV OF FLOODED
BACKYARDS NEAR PALM BEACH COUNTY ESTATES.
0958 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 W JUPITER 26.93N 80.13W
12/28/2019 M5.94 INCH PALM BEACH FL PUBLIC
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION SINCE AROUND 1 AM EST NEAR
CORNER OF WHITE WING LANE AND BUSH ROAD...STATION ID
KFLJUPIT1017.
&&
EVENT NUMBER MFL1900317 MFL1900318 MFL1900319 MFL1900326 MFL1900320
MFL1900327 MFL1900321 MFL1900323 MFL1900322 MFL1900325 MFL1900324
COHENLocal storm report, Dec 28, 11:33 AM EST, 2 hours 27 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1133 AM EST SAT DEC 28 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN JUNO BEACH 26.88N 80.06W
12/28/2019 M5.63 INCH PALM BEACH FL CO-OP OBSERVER
CO-OP OBSERVER IN JUNO BEACH (STATION - JUBF1) REPORTED
5.63 INCHES OF RAINFALL. 24 HOUR TOTAL.
&&
EVENT NUMBER MFL1900328
HGW