Rip Current in Florida, April 12, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
501 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2019

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: After a few showers earlier this
afternoon, the Atlantic seabreeze has moved well west of the metro
areas and is currently a diffuse boundary tracking across the
Everglades. The Gulf breeze has become more active over the past
hour with scattered showers popping up across interior Collier
county.

Models seem to have a good handle on the convective evolution
today, with coverage increasing across the western interior
counties through the remainder of the late afternoon and evening
hours. The environment isn't overly favorable for much in the way
of storms with significant dry air and subsidence aloft. However,
wouldn't be surprised if boundary collisions through early evening
overcome this inhibition and a few storms occur. With this, have
included the mention of isolated thunderstorms through just after
sunset. May see a few Atlantic showers overnight, but chances are
not enough to include the mention in the forecast. It will be much
warmer and muggier than last night with lows only in the mid to
upper 60s across the interior and low to mid 70s along the coasts.

THIS WEEKEND: The upper level low east of the Bahamas will move
farther away as we head into Saturday, allowing a brief surge of
mid-upper level heights and suppressive effects on the atmosphere.
The overall atmosphere actually looks a little drier, which
should keep precip coverage limited to just late afternoon showers
along the collision west of Lake Okeechobee. It will be another
warm day with highs in the mid to upper 80s with low 90s across
the interior.

The low level ridge axis will sink south by Sunday, as the next
frontal boundary approaches the region from the Gulf. The boundary
itself does not look to have an influence during the day, instead
we will remain driven by activity developing along the seabreezes
as they move inland. The stronger south-southwesterly flow will
shift better coverage towards the Lake Okeechobee region into the
east coast. The front itself looks to enter the area late Sunday
night, but with little fanfare.

NEXT WEEK: The mid to upper level trough driving the front be
lifting north as it moves into the state early Monday morning,
allowing flow to become more zonal. There will be just enough
momentum for the front to cross the region early on Monday,
exiting the state by early afternoon. With rapidly weakening low
level convergence and minimal moisture, precip chances will be
scattered at best, primarily along the east coast and local
Atlantic where a few storms may be possible.

Surface high pressure will quickly move from along the Gulf coast
into the western Atlantic behind the front into midweek. By this
time of year, the length of day and sun angle will overcome any
decrease in daytime temps with highs remaining in the 80s.
However, there will be a notable dry air push with dewpoints
dropping into the 50s and low to mid 60s behind the boundary into
Tuesday. This should allow at least one cooler night, with Monday
night dropping into the low to mid 60s across the interior and
Gulf coast and upper 60s and low 70s along the east coast.

Tuesday should be dry, but afternoon showers, and potentially a
few storms will return to the forecast for the latter half of the
week as flow becomes south-southeast and moisture returns to the
area.

&&

.MARINE...Moderate southeasterly flow will continue into
Saturday, with a brief late night surge bringing the potential for
cautionary conditions across most waters Saturday night. Winds
will veer more southerly early on Sunday, then southwesterly into
Sunday night as a front enters the region. Brief period of
northwesterly winds is possible behind the front on Monday, before
light easterly flow returns on Tuesday.

Afternoon and early evening showers and storms across the inland
waterways will be the main concern today and again on Saturday,
though a few Atlantic showers can't be ruled out. More scattered
coverage is expected on Sunday into Sunday night as the boundary
moves across the region.

&&

.CLIMATE...High pressure, southerly flow, and generally rain-
free conditions will bring quite warm temperatures to the area
through the weekend. With onshore flow component across the east
coast metropolitan areas, overnight lows will be exceptionally
warm and daily record warm minima are threatened. Here are the
details:

Saturday
				  RECORD  YEAR

NAPLES            76 IN 1943
WEST PALM BEACH   77 IN 2015
FORT LAUDERDALE   77 IN 2015
MIAMI             77 IN 1974

Sunday
                   RECORD  YEAR

NAPLES             73 IN 1978
WEST PALM BEACH    76 IN 2015
FORT LAUDERDALE    77 IN 2015
MIAMI              78 IN 1975

Monday
                   RECORD  YEAR

NAPLES             75 IN 1975
WEST PALM BEACH    76 IN 2015
FORT LAUDERDALE    78 IN 2015
MIAMI              76 IN 2014

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  74  86  75  87 /  10  10  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  76  85  76  85 /  10  10  20  20
Miami            75  86  76  87 /  10  10  20  20
Naples           71  88  73  87 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...88/ALM
MARINE...88/ALM
AVIATION...54/BNB
CLIMATE...88/ALM

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
353 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2019

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
130800-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
353 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2019

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES...
...ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE OVER INLAND SW FLORIDA TODAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a moderate risk of Rip Currents along the east
coast beaches of South Florida.

Thunderstorms: Isolated thunderstorms are possible over portions of
inland Southwest Florida this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds,
locally heavy rain, and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning are
possible with these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

The rip current risk is forecast to increase for the Atlantic
beaches this weekend into early next week.

A few thunderstorms are possible over the east coast metro and
Atlantic waters on Monday. Lightning is the primary hazard.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

RAG