Scattered thunderstorms produced moderate to locally heavy rain in southeast Arizona. The result was flash flooding in the Mammoth and the Safford areas.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms produced moderate to locally heavy rain in southeast Arizona. The result was flash flooding in the Mammoth and the Safford areas. There was also a landspout tornado north of Three Points.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 10, 9:30 AM MST, 3 hours 30 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 930 AM MST Sat Aug 10 2019 .UPDATE... && .SYNOPSIS... Still expecting an active weather day with the potential for localized heavy rainfall across the region beginning early this afternoon, with the additional threat of strong winds and blowing dust later today. The biggest impacts will be flash flooding and degraded visibilities due to blowing dust. Please use caution if you have to travel later today. Singer && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 AM MST Sat Aug 10 2019/ .SYNOPSIS...Abundant moisture will remain in place through the weekend with a weather system moving north across the area. This combination will bring occasional thunderstorms to the area with an elevated risk of flash Flooding anytime through Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms are again expected Sunday mainly east of Tucson. Drier and hotter weather is forecast for much of next week. && .DISCUSSION...Mostly cloudy across the area this morning with very isolated light showers, mainly southeast of Tucson. PWAT values across the area are around 1.50". Satellite imagery showed that the two thunderstorms complexes across northern Mexico last night have weakened but still on-going. The one in northern Chihuahua was lifting across SW NM while the one across Sonora is moving WNW. Further south streamline analysis placed approaching inverted trof across southern Sonora, moving north. Models agree that the approaching inverted trof will bring a really good chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area over the next 36 hours and with PWAT values around 1.50", heavy rain. However the models are struggling with where the heaviest rains will occur with run-to- run inconsistency with placement of convective bullseye. Latest run of the UofA WRFNAM kinda similar to latest HRRR runs with two areas being of concerns this afternoon where two MCSs are likely. One MCS is possible southwest of Tucson a few severe storms are possible that will produce areas of blowing dust and also heavy rain. The second area for possible MCS is across Cochise county where heavy rain is the main threat although can't rule out a severe storm or two. Activity will continue into the evening and overnight hours as the inverted trof moves north across the area. QPF values in the mountains between 1"-3" with localized 1"-2" in the valleys. A flash flood watch is in effect until 5 am Sunday for most of the area, although not everyone will see heavy rain. Activity will be winding down on Sunday as the inverted trof moves into New Mexico. Limited thunderstorm activity early next week as a drier westerly flow will be over the area. Moisture starts to increase back across the area later next week as flow aloft becomes southerly. Forecasting the high temperatures a bit tricky today due to cloud cover and when the showers begin. Overall highs will be below normal this weekend then turning hotter next week. A few locals will be near record highs next Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION...Valid through 10/12Z. Isolated -SHRA/TSRA this morning becoming SCTD to numerous -SHRA with embedded TSRA through the valid period. Strong gusty outflow winds and localized MVFR CIGS/VSBYS possible with strongest storms.Otherwise SCT-BKN clouds 10-20K FT AGL with normal diurnal wind regime. All of this is associated with a weather disturbance moving in from northern Mexico. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A weather disturbance moving in from northern Mexico will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to southeast Arizona this weekend. Some of the storms may become severe in nature and produce strong outflows and heavy rain. A drying pattern is expected in the beginning half of next week with monsoon activity diminishing temporarily. Aside from gusty erratic winds from thunderstorm outflows, wind trends stay light and terrain driven. && && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for AZZ502>515. && 99/99/99 Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Tucson AZ 1017 AM MST Sat Aug 10 2019 AZZ503-507-513-101800- Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys including Nogales- 1017 AM MST Sat Aug 10 2019 At 1016 AM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Patagonia, or 19 miles northeast of Nogales. This storm was nearly stationary. Locations impacted include... Patagonia, Elgin and Kino Springs. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. && LAT...LON 3163 11076 3163 11055 3133 11064 3133 11085 TIME...MOT...LOC 1716Z 033DEG 3KT 3155 11068 Singer
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Tucson AZ 1031 AM MST Sat Aug 10 2019 AZZ503-507-513-101815- Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys including Nogales- 1031 AM MST Sat Aug 10 2019 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA AND NORTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 AM MST... At 1030 AM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Sonoita, or 20 miles southeast of Green Valley, moving northeast at 10 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm along with heaby rainfall. Locations impacted include... Sonoita. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3163 11063 3162 11085 3190 11071 3189 11047 TIME...MOT...LOC 1730Z 210DEG 8KT 3170 11070 AH
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Tucson AZ 1116 AM MST Sat Aug 10 2019 AZZ504-507-101900- Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra Vista/Benson-Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green Valley/Marana/Vail- 1116 AM MST Sat Aug 10 2019 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY UNTIL NOON MST... At 1115 AM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Vail, or 9 miles south of Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, moving west at 5 mph. Half inch hail, very heavy rainfall, and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Tucson, Vail, East Sahuarita, Corona De Tucson, Tucson International Airport and Rita Ranch. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3210 11057 3190 11058 3193 11092 3210 11093 TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 078DEG 5KT 3205 11082 AH
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 70 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:02 UTC.
2 flash flood, 1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
Landspout tornado formed north of Three Points and persisted for 3 minutes.
Between 1 and 2 inches of rain in around one hour between Mammoth and San Manuel caused flash flooding at Copper Creek Road along the San Pedro River.
One inch of rain in less than an hour caused flash flooding of several roads in the Safford area. One vehicle was swept away near First Avenue in Thatcher. The wash intersecting Lebanon Road and 191 also overflowed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Arizona, 2019Warnings in Arizona, August 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 851548, 851515, 851516.