Hail and Damaging Wind in Alabama, August 3, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
313 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Scattered convection will continue into the evening hours before
diminishing overnight. With precipitable water values near 2 inches
as observed on the 12z KTAE sounding in addition to weak steering
flow, isolated pockets of heavy rain are possible. Overnight lows
will generally be in the 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

An upper level long wave trough is in place aloft of the eastern
CONUS with a ribbon of PV that stretches across the north-central
Gulf waters and into the tri-state area on Sunday. Though the trough
will remain in place, the PV anomaly will lift northeastward Monday.
This upper level feature will continue to enhance seabreeze
convection for the next couple of days. PW values in the 1.5-2" will
be common across the forecast area, with a few spots over 2".
Rainfall totals will generally be around 1 inch, but locally higher
amounts of 2 to 4 inches remain possible. This could lead to
localized flooding during slow moving thunderstorms for the next few
days. Highs will be in the low 90s and lows will be in the low 70s.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The upper level long wave trough over the eastern CONUS should
finally shift eastward late in the week, with a weak pressure
pattern remaining in place at the low levels. PoPs will generally
hang around the 40-50% range through Thursday, finally lowering to
30-40% for Friday and Saturday. Highs will be in the low-mid 90s and
lows will be in the low-mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Sunday]

Scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area are expected
to continue into this evening and diminish overnight. Mainly VFR
conditions are expected away from convection.

&&

.MARINE...

Light winds from the west will prevail through most of the period
with seas of 1 to 2 feet. The only weather concern for mariners
for the next several days will be daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No critical fire weather conditions are expected over the next
several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Local rivers are below action stage. A wet pattern will be in place
through Monday. Slow moving storms may produce some localized
flooding today. Ponding of water on roadways and flooding of low
lying areas is likely with the stronger storms.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   72  92  72  90  72 /  30  40  20  50  20
Panama City   75  88  76  87  75 /  20  30  30  50  50
Dothan        71  91  71  89  70 /  30  50  30  50  30
Albany        73  91  72  90  71 /  40  50  40  50  40
Valdosta      72  91  71  90  71 /  30  50  30  50  30
Cross City    73  91  74  90  73 /  20  20  10  30  20
Apalachicola  75  88  76  87  75 /  20  20  20  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Nguyen
LONG TERM...Nguyen
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Nguyen
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...McD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
133 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

FLZ007-008-108-031915-
Central Walton FL-South Walton FL-North Walton FL-
133 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WALTON COUNTY UNTIL 215
PM CDT...

At 132 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Eglin Air Force Base, or 11 miles northeast of Niceville, moving east
at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
De Funiak Springs, Eglin Air Force Base, Freeport, Eucheeanna,
Portland, Pleasant Ridge, New Home, De Funiak Spring Airport, Argyle
and Rock Hill.

LAT...LON 3066 8639 3077 8605 3051 8599 3050 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 257DEG 12KT 3059 8630

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
147 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

FLZ007-009-031915-
Holmes FL-North Walton FL-
147 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL WALTON AND WESTERN
HOLMES COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

At 147 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles north of De Funiak Springs, moving southwest at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
De Funiak Springs, Union, Cluster Springs, Leonia, Sand Hill, Barker
Store, Prosperity, Darlington, Arrant Settlement, Royals Crossroads,
Glendale, Pleasant Hill, Center Ridge, Piney Grove and Caney Creek.

LAT...LON 3087 8628 3099 8609 3099 8606 3095 8588
      3070 8600 3070 8601
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 042DEG 5KT 3089 8606

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
157 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

ALZ065-066-031930-
Dale AL-Coffee AL-
157 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DALE AND COFFEE COUNTIES UNTIL
230 PM CDT...

At 156 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Blue Springs State Park to 8 miles west of
Elba. Movement was southeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Elba, Enterprise, Fort Rucker, Ozark, Level Plains, Newton, New
Brockton, Ariton, Lee, Mixons Crossroads, Hunt Field, Curtis, Carl
Folsom A/p, Hooper Stage Field, Camp Humming Hills, Clintonville,
Ewell, Roeton, Dale County Lake and Camp Alaflo Bsa.

LAT...LON 3153 8619 3154 8614 3162 8615 3162 8542
      3145 8542 3136 8558 3126 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 334DEG 11KT 3165 8552 3142 8621

42-DVD