An upper trough and frontal passage on May 5-6 brought pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall with amounts of 2 to 3 inches across portions of southeast West Virginia.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
An upper trough and frontal passage on May 5-6 brought pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall with amounts of 2 to 3 inches across portions of southeast West Virginia.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 6, 8:12 AM EST, 48 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 912 AM EDT Sun May 6 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system will lift northeast into east Virginia this evening, then push off shore. A weak cold front will dip south into our area Monday keeping unsettled weather over the region into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 912 AM EDT Sunday... Adjusted temperatures and dew points with the latest surface obs, their trends and shaped towards GLAMP for late morning into this afternoon. Modified the pops to match up better with radar trends and a leaned towards a blend of HRRR and Conshort. Adjusted cloud cover with latest satellite images and use HRRR to capture openings in clouds. More changes later this morning. As of 315 AM EDT Sunday... Water vapor satellite imagery shows a potent upper level shortwave across southeast KY early this morning with strong upper divergence re-generating showers and a few storms. Axis of instability across far western VA will allow for pre-dawn storms west of I-77 early this morning. Models are in good agreement opening and lifting this system northeast today with a sfc low pushing east across VA today. Low level convergence along a cold front will generate more showers today, as most of the CAM mesoscale models show. HREF and other models bring nose of higher instability (500-750 j/kg CAPE) into the far southeast portion of the forecast area today, so introduced thunder here. Most of the precipitation should exit the forecast area by 00Z. Winds will be gusty behind the front this afternoon and evening, but gusts should remain below advisory criteria temperatures should be similar to Saturday's highs. Our area remains between systems tonight with deeper subtropical moisture well off the coast, and an approaching cold front from the northwest. Most locations will remain dry overnight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday... A high amplitude upper trof is the dominate weather feature for most of the short term period, which finally gives way to upper ridging and above normal temperatures by Wednesday. A wedge of high pressure at the surface remains in place through Tuesday evening keeping mainly cloud skies in place with a chance of showers, especially on the western edge of the wedge, where scattered thunderstorms will be possible. Clouds and precipitation will hold back daytime temperatures Monday and Tuesday, and leaned toward the cooler guidance values for highs during this period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 115 PM EDT Saturday... Upper low move northeast by Wednesday night with pattern becoming more zonal but still with some weak troughing as short waves track through the northern stream Thursday and Friday. Large differences in the models after Thursday, especially in western United States. 06Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF/CMC were completely out of phase. WPC is leaning toward trough in the western United States but not to the extent of the CMC/ECMWF. Surface wedge breaks on Wednesday with increasing southwest wind ahead of the low pressure system approaching from the Ohio Valley. This low crosses the areas pushing a cold front through the Mid Atlantic region on Thursday. At this time models indicate enough forcing and instability for thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and evening. Will keep the forecast dry for Friday and Saturday behind this system. Temperatures will be near normal through the period with a warming trend at the end of the week. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 731 AM EDT SUNDAY... An initial area of showers with an isolated thunderstorm will result in showers in the vicinity of KDAN, KLYH and KROA through 10 AM EDT/14Z under MVFR to occasional IFR ceilings. These ceiling will only gradually improve during the mid to late morning hours before a second line of showers and isolated storms with localized MVFR to IFR cigs and gusty outflow winds developing the west after 15-16Z, and travel east potentially impacting all TAF sites before departing by 22z-00Z. In the wake of this second round of showers, northwest winds will increase and gust to as high as 25 MPH. While ceilings will improve during the late afternoon/early evening, low clouds and IFR-MVFR ceilings return to the mountain TAF sites late tonight/early Monday morning. Confidence is low on the timing and coverage of these low clouds. .Extended Aviation Discussion... Another cold front will arrive on Monday to spark added showers. By Tuesday, high pressure will build over the New England, which will start a period of east winds ushering marine air from the Atlantic Ocean that should provide lower ceilings and visibilities espcly southern and southwest sections. Drier air as winds turn more southerly and the weak wedge breaks down should allow for improvement to VFR on Wednesday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && SYNOPSIS...RCS NEAR TERM...KK/PH SHORT TERM...PH LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...PH
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 405 AM EDT Sun May 6 2018 VAZ007-009>011-018>020-WVZ042>044-507-508-070900- Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Mercer-Summers- Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier- 405 AM EDT Sun May 6 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A few creeks and streams may be near bankful or briefly exceed bankful due to runoff from heavy rains Saturday night and early Sunday morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ012>017-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-070900- Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes- Yadkin-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Roanoke- Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry- Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte- 405 AM EDT Sun May 6 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia and west central Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Dunlap Creek near Covington (DLPV2) crested above Minor flood stage at 9.48 feet; Minor flood stage is 9 feet.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, May 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 748725.