Upslope winds on the east side of the Blue Ridge just north of an approaching warm front aided in producing torrential rainfall and catastrophic flooding in parts of Central Virginia. Rainfall amounts of 4-10 inches occurred north and west of Charlottesville.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
Upslope winds on the east side of the Blue Ridge just north of an approaching warm front aided in producing torrential rainfall and catastrophic flooding in parts of Central Virginia. Rainfall amounts of 4-10 inches occurred north and west of Charlottesville. Later in the evening, heavy rain developed in northern Virginia, with 1-3 inches in the southern and western suburbs of Washington DC, as well as again near Harrisonburg. This produced another round of flooding and some flash flooding that actually continued into June 1st. June Storm Data will contain those details when available.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 30, 2:03 PM EST, 5 hours 27 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
303 PM EDT Wed May 30 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A front will slowly lift north today into Thursday. A front will
then approach from the west and stall near our area Friday and
into the weekend as a low pressure system develops along the
front near the Mid-Atlantic. High pressure will build from the
west early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A boundary sits south of our area at this moment with light
southeasterly flow over us and cloudy skies. Moisture advection
continues over our area while showers, some with moderate to
heavy rain, are moving over our CWA at this moment. In the upper
levels, a ridge axis sits long the eastern seaboard, with
veering flow aloft.
CAPE values of above 1000 J/kg are expected to remain to the
southwest of our CWA, while shear remains marginal. Precipitable
water will be near or above 2 inches this afternoon/evening.
Concerns remains with the current rich moisture environment
and the flow against the eastern slopes of the mountains. These
and along with mesoscale guidance, expecting any heavy showers
to remain mainly to the southwest of our CWA this afternoon and
evening. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through 10pm. Showers
may continue overnight as the front moves through the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Warm front will be lingering our CWA on Thursday and moving
north into Thursday night with a tropical air mass settling in.
Not a lot of change in moisture or PWAT... still remaining near
or above 2 inches. Diurnal heating will allow for the development
of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Some of
these storms would bring heavy rain and they could be slow
moving, which could produce localized flooding in an already
saturated environment.
A front/shortwave energy approaches on Friday into Friday
night. Diurnal heating with lifting ahead of the front will
once again allow for showers and thunderstorms, with more heavy
rain producers. Additional flood watches may be needed.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Concern for heavy rain and flooding this weekend continues to grow.
Blocking over the northwest Atlantic will help to create a cutoff
upper low on Saturday, which will slide south across our area
through the day. A surface low will begin to strengthen, in
association with the aforementioned upper low, and move from
northwest to southeast across the region along a stalled front
draped across the region. This will be the driver for showers and
thunderstorms throughout the day on Saturday. Precipitable water
values will remain abnormally high throughout the day on Saturday,
with values reaching 1.75-2 inches. This, coupled with weak steering
flow and deep warm cloud layers, will provide a heightened risk for
slow-moving convection across the area. With the ground already
saturated in many areas due to recent heavy rains, the flood threat
is even higher.
The potential exists for an area of moderate to heavy stratiform
rain to develop Saturday night into early Sunday morning as the
surface low strengthens and begins to drift offshore. However, due
to uncertainty in the exact track at this time, it is uncertain if
or where this might set up. Showers will then linger into Sunday as
well, keeping temperatures much cooler, with highs only in the low
to middle 70's.
Model consensus suggest that the low pressure system/front and
attendant heavy rainfall risk should exit to the south and east by
early next week as high pressure noses in from southeastern Canada
and the eastern Great Lakes. Temperatures should return to average
by mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A front will slowly move across the area today into tomorrow.
Another front approach the area and stalls near us on Friday. Generally
MVFR to VFR conditions are observed over most terminals at this
moment. Moist air and southeasterly flow will continue the
development of clouds. Showers and thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon/evening, some of them capable of producing heavy
rain, which could bring locally brief periods of flight
restrictions.
A similar pattern is expected for Thursday and Friday with low
clouds/fog in the morning, then showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon/evening. Therefore localized flight restrictions
possible but can be challenging to determine way ahead of time.
A front will remain stalled over the Mid-Atlantic this weekend as
low pressure develops over eastern Pennsylvania and drifts south.
After potential lower CIGS or patchy fog Sat AM, Periods of sub-VFR
are possible in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon and evening. The main threat will be VSBY
reductions in heavy rain. More widespread CIG/VSBY restrictions seem
likely Sat night-Sun as low pressure drifts south, resulting in
onshore flow. Winds may be somewhat light and erratic Saturday with
low pressure moving overhead, but should pick up out of the east
around 10-15 kts late Saturday into Sunday as the low presses
south.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds are expected to remain under small craft advisory criteria
today and through Friday. A weak boundary will push north today
into tomorrow with southerly flow over us. A cold front will
approach Friday and stall near.
Winds are expected to start out light and variable with low pressure
overhead Saturday morning. Low pressure will ride down a stalled
front over the Mid-Atlantic, then move south by Saturday evening
resulting in increasing easterly flow which could necessitate the
issuance of Small Craft Advisories Saturday evening through
Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A prolonged period of high PWATs (1.75-2 inches) with deep warm
cloud layers (12-13+ kft) combined with a stalled front near or
over the Mid-Atlantic will lead to repeated threats of flooding
over the next several days. Please stay tuned for later watches
and possible warnings, and heed the advice of local officials.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Onshore flow (initially SE, but becoming E or NE over the weekend)
is expected to keep water levels elevated into the weekend.
Depending on the exact wind direction and speed, periods of minor
tidal flooding will remain possible during this time. The
overnight tide cycles are the higher of the two each day, and
thus are the most susceptible times for flooding.
&&
.CLIMATE...
The Washington DC area (DCA) is currently on pace for its 3rd
warmest and 8th wettest May on record.
The Baltimore MD area (BWI) is currently on pace for its 7th
warmest and 7th wettest May on record.
IAD is currently on pace for its 3rd warmest and 9th wettest May
on record.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ025>027-
029-036>040-503-504-507-508.
WV...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ055-501-
502-505-506.
MARINE...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...IMR
NEAR TERM...IMR
SHORT TERM...IMR
LONG TERM...CJL
AVIATION...IMR/CJL
MARINE...IMR/CJL
HYDROLOGY... DHOF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... DHOF
CLIMATE... DHOFHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 450 PM EDT Wed May 30 2018 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-312100- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Southeast Harford- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George- 450 PM EDT Wed May 30 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and adjacent counties in central Maryland and northern Virginia as well as the District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Numerous showers and thunderstorms capable of heavy rain will develop during the afternoon and evening hours Thursday through the weekend. These showers and thunderstorms will be slow-moving across wet ground, and capable of producing localized flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ003>006-501>507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501>508-WVZ050>053- 055-501>506-312100- Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke- Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Highland- Eastern Highland-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant- Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- 450 PM EDT Wed May 30 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern West Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western Maryland with the exception of Garrett County. .DAY ONE...Tonight A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for portions of central Virginia including the Blue Ridge, and portions of the Potomac Highlands in West Virginia through midnight tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Numerous showers and thunderstorms capable of heavy rain will develop during the afternoon and evening hours Thursday through the weekend. These showers and thunderstorms will be slow-moving across wet ground, and capable of producing localized flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 91 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:31 UTC.
33 flash flood, 22 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Two women attempted to cross the swollen Rose River at Graves Mountain Lodge in an ATV. When one of the women got out to check on the water, she was knocked off her feet and swept away. The other woman was uninjured and rescued.
Flash flooding reported at the intersection of Bingham Mountain Road and Middle Mountain Road. The road was closed.
Ford Avenue flooded and closed near the substation.
Flooding of South River caused water to cover South River Road on both sides of Madison Road, with the road closed.
Middle River Road flooded and closed at Echo Lane.
Dunnes Shop Road flooded and closed in multiple areas.
Dunnes Shop Road flooded in multiple places, forcing a road closure.
The stream gage on Mechums River near White Hall rapidly exceeded the 11 foot flood stage during the time indicated. The yard of a home and the driveway of the same home flooded. The peak level observed was 17.42 feet at 10:30pm EST May 30th, which was the highest recorded at this site since 2004.
Spotswood Trail flooded and closed at Lambs Lane.
Spotswood Trail was flooded and closed due to standing water near Lambs Lane.
Barracks Road shut down due to a mudslide.
Slope failure on Free Union Road near Ridge Road due to heavy rain.
Two cars were swept off Old Ballard Road at Ivy Creek. The occupant of one vehicle escaped and was rescued. The second vehicle was observed to repeatedly toss and overturn in the raging floodwaters. The two occupants of that vehicle could not be rescued and were found dead.
A driver had to be rescued when the vehicle became stranded in two to three feet of standing water on US Highway 29 near Plank Road.
Major flooding occurred in the Banco, Syria, and Criglersville areas of Madison County.
Ongoing water rescues with rapidly deteriorating conditions were reported on Ivy Road near Little Ivy Creek.
Multiple water rescues ongoing in the Syria area.
The stream gage on Moormans River near Free Union rapidly exceeded the 14 foot flood stage during the time indicated. The fields of a campground are flooded at this level.
Water from an overflowing pond rushed across Red Hill School Road near the Red Hill Elementary School.
The stream gage on the North Fork Rivanna River near Earlysville rapidly exceeded the 14 foot flood stage during the times indicated. The peak value was estimated at 21.89 feet. Significant flooding occurred in northern Albemarle County.
Three feet of water over Old Lynchburg Road.
Mechums River flooded, causing washouts of portions of Whippoorwill Road and Garth Road.
Flooding was reported on 10th Street near South Kirby Avenue.
All lanes of US 340 were covered by water which had overflowed from a retention area. Nearby basements were flooded due to overland runoff entering from above ground.
Chapman Road flooded and closed at the Roach River.
Amicus Road flooded and closed in multiple spots west of Quinque.
Simmons Gap Road flooded and closed.
Celt Road flooded and closed south of Stanardsville.
Rosebrook Road was reported flooded and closed.
Bull Yearling Road flooded and closed along Bull Yearling Run.
The southbound lane of Dyke Road in the 10000 block was washed out with a sinkhole reported.
Multiple cars stranded in at least two feet of rushing water near the intersection of West Leigh Drive and Leigh Way.
At least five mudslides were reported in the Swift Run Gap area in Greene County. The slopes gave way, forcing the closure of US Route 33.
Although flash flooding had ended, the stream gage on Mechums River near White Hall remained above the 11 foot flood stage during the times indicated. The yard of a home and the driveway of the same home flooded.
The stream gage on Moormans River near Free Union exceeded the 14 foot flood stage during the time indicated. The fields of a campground are flooded at this level.
A Street was blocked by rushing water with Steele Run out of its banks.
Several roads were flooded and closed near Criglersville.
The stream gage on the Rapidan River near Ruckersville exceeded the 14 foot flood stage during the indicated times. The peak level of 15.24 feet occurred at 7:15am EST on May 31st. This was the highest level observed at this location since 1995.
The stream gage on the North Fork Rivanna River near Earlysville remained above the 14 foot flood stage during the times indicated. Flooding of a bridge in the area was reported.
The stream gage on Robinson River near Locust Dale exceeded the 11 foot flood stage during the indicated times. The peak of 14.89 feet occurred at 1:30pm EST on May 31st.
Several inches of water were reported to have entered the first floor of an apartment building.
Difficult Run was out of its banks and flowing across Waples Mill Road.
Fox Mill Road was flooded and closed near Hunt Road.
Georgetown Pike and Swinks Mill Road both flooded and closed.
Vehicle trapped in high water on Silver Lake Road due to Cooks Creek being out of bank.
About six inches of water flowing over Country Club Drive in the vicinity of a hotel.
A foot of water reported at the intersection of Dale Boulevard and Minnieville Road.
The intersection of US 1 and Marys Way / Mount Pleasant Drive had to be closed due to a foot of water over the roadway.
Accotink Creek was out of its banks, flooding portions of Bells Bird Sanctuary Park in Fairfax.
Purcell Road flooded near Purcell Creek.
Several cars were stalled in high water on Dale Boulevard near Forestdale Avenue.
Mill Street flooded in Occoquan near Union Street.
Purcell Road flooded and closed near Hunters Grove Road.
Bridge flooded and closed on Octonia Road where South River crosses it.
Water covered the road near the intersection of Crockett Road and Old Church Road. A vehicle stalled in the floodwaters, prompting a water rescue.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flash Flood, Madison | 2018-05-30 | 43 | Female | In Water | Direct |
| Flash Flood, Albemarle | 2018-05-30 | 82 | Male | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Direct |
| Flash Flood, Albemarle | 2018-05-30 | 79 | Female | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, May 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 760005, 760941, 760943, 760944, 760946, 760957, 781524, 761291, 760948, 781522, 761283, 761284, 760004, 760960, 761282, 760967, 760968, 761289, 760969, 761293, 760971, 760972, 761259, 761260, 761246, 761247, 761249, 761250, 761251, 761252, 761254, 761255, 761257, 761292, 761290, 761258, 761262, 761287, 761294, 761286, and more.