Storms developed in the late afternoon dropping very heavy rain across southern Bath County and produced localized flash flooding near Bacova Junction. Rainfall was estimated by radar at approximately 4 to 5 inches in about 2 hours.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
Storms developed in the late afternoon dropping very heavy rain across southern Bath County and produced localized flash flooding near Bacova Junction. Rainfall was estimated by radar at approximately 4 to 5 inches in about 2 hours.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 21, 2:58 PM EST, 2 hours 8 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 358 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A southerly flow will continue to push warm and humid air into our region early this week. The nearly stationary front to our north will finally push south across our area Wednesday. High pressure will follow the front Wednesday night and keep the area mostly dry through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Monday... A blocking ridge centered over Bermuda stretches westward to cover portions of the southeast and Mid Atlantic states tonight. This ridge is expected to sink south Tuesday, losing its influence on the region and allowing an upper level trough and a cold front to approach the area from the northwest. Over the Gulf states north into the Tennessee Valley, a weak upper level trough will continue to draw Gulf and Atlantic moisture northward into the area tonight and tomorrow. From this afternoon into this evening, storms will track from the southeast to the northwest. Tomorrow the steering flow shifts with storms moving from the southwest to the northeast. All storms will be slow moving and with the addition of tropical moisture, heavy downpours are likely this afternoon and evening and again tomorrow afternoon and night. Since the ground remains wet and creeks, streams and rivers are elevated, there is a chance for renewed flooding this evening and tomorrow. As far as severe threat, model soundings suggest very moist layer with SBCAPEs around 1000 J/KG this afternoon. Cannot rule out some isolated wet microbursts but main threat is localized flash flooding. Temperatures will remain muggy overnight with readings in the 60s. Temperatures Tuesday will range in the 70s across the mountains to low to mid 80s east. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM EST Monday... Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday evening into early Wednesday as an upper level disturbance pushes across the central Appalachians toward the coast ahead of an approaching cold front. Right now, instability appears to be modest with this disturbance such that it wouldn't be a surprise to see a few cells become strong to severe before midnight Wednesday, mainly across the Piedmont, but the threat of widespread severe storms overall appears limited. The cold front will sink southward, advancing to the Interstate 81 corridor around dawn before loosing speed somewhat as it continues a southward drift. Believe we will see a redevelopment of showers across the mountains in the northwest flow upslope regions, however instability will be limited. Greater instability will be found in the vicinity of the front across extreme southern Virginia and northern North Carolina, where scattered strong storms may redevelop with afternoon heating where CAPEs may exceed 2000 J/Kg. Outflows from any of these storms will help to push the front further southward by evening, clearing the boundary through our area after sunset Wednesday. High pressure will shift toward New England Wednesday night, causing winds across the Mid Atlantic to swing more easterly by Thursday morning. Though instability will be very modest within the weak high pressure wedging across the region, may see a few showers/isolated storms develop along the Blue Ridge with afternoon heating as marine air off the Atlantic is forced into the mountains. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM EST Tuesday... Winds will shift more southerly on Friday as high pressure slides off shore. Though moisture and instability will remain limited, expect slightly greater coverage of spotty, daytime heating-driven showers and thunderstorms. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase during the weekend as a warm front lifts northward through the mid Atlantic, bringing a return of deeper moisture from the Gulf coast region. Afternoon temperatures will range from the mid 70s to the mid 80s each day, while overnight lows will generally be in the 60s areawide. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Monday... Numerous showers and thunderstorms are from a line from BLF-HLX southwest. Isolated showers are forming northeast of this line across the rest of the mountains, but should become more numerous through the afternoon. Convection east of the Blue Ridge will occur later this afternoon and continue into this evening. Reduced visibilities and ceilings (IFR) during heavy rain this afternoon should be brief, lasting 30-60 minutes. Light rain and MVFR ceilings will last longer and on the order of 3-6 hours. Confidence on timing for each TAF site is low, with the exception of Bluefield where rain will begin by 230 PM. Winds will stay light east-southeast outside thunderstorms. Overcast conditions are expected to linger through the night, therefore IFR or lower visibilities from fog are less likely. Any fog forming overnight should be gone by 14Z Tuesday. .Extended Aviation Discussion... Scattered MVFR showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday with another round likely Wednesday. Conditions are expected to improve later in the week. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && SYNOPSIS...RCS NEAR TERM...RCS SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...RCS/WP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 938 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018 NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059- WVZ042>044-507-508-221345- Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes- Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson- Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge- Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell- Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe- Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier- 938 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will occur this afternoon into this evening. Some of these storms will be slow moving with torrential downpours likely to lead to localized flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. RCS
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
425 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018
WVZ507-212100-
Eastern Greenbrier-
425 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEASTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY...
Until 500 PM EDT
At 425 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near White Sulphur
Springs. The storm is nearly stationary.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Lewisburg...
White Sulphur Springs...
Lewisburg Airport...
Alvon...
and Maxwelton.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
LAT...LON 3790 8013 3785 8018 3784 8018 3784 8019
3782 8020 3782 8021 3780 8023 3779 8022
3777 8023 3777 8025 3774 8026 3784 8045
3800 8034
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 215DEG 2KT 3785 8032
LocontoSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA 449 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018 NCZ005-006-VAZ044-212145- Rockingham-Caswell-Pittsylvania- 449 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ROCKINGHAM...NORTHWESTERN CASWELL AND SOUTHWESTERN PITTSYLVANIA COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF DANVILLE... Until 545 PM EDT At 449 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Cascade, moving east at 5 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Danville... Eden... Bethel... Providence... and Mayfield. This includes The following Location Danville Airport. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. LAT...LON 3654 7972 3666 7967 3663 7927 3633 7946 TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 281DEG 6KT 3656 7961 AS
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
523 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018
VAZ020-212230-
Bath-
523 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018
...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BATH COUNTY...
Until 630 PM EDT
At 523 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Warm Springs,
moving north at 15 mph.
Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Millboro...
Warm Springs...
Hot Springs...
Nimrod Hall...
and Lake Moomaw.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
LAT...LON 3826 7977 3822 7971 3820 7956 3818 7951
3815 7953 3817 7949 3816 7944 3810 7949
3809 7948 3804 7952 3803 7951 3790 7963
3798 8001 3808 7995 3810 7993 3813 7995
3815 7992 3818 7992 3826 7981
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 182DEG 14KT 3799 7976
ASPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
542 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0540 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 SSW RENICK 37.93N 80.40W
05/21/2018 GREENBRIER WV 911 CALL CENTER
WILLIAMSBURG ROAD NEAR WILLIAMSBURG IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH
WATER.
&&
LOCONTOPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
549 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0540 PM FLASH FLOOD NNW WHITE SULPHUR SPRIN 37.81N 80.30W
05/21/2018 GREENBRIER WV 911 CALL CENTER
GREENBRIER COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTED THAT BIG DRAFT ROAD
IN WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS WAS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.
&&
LOCONTOSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA 553 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018 NCZ005-006-VAZ044-212245- Rockingham-Caswell-Pittsylvania- 553 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ROCKINGHAM...NORTHWESTERN CASWELL AND SOUTHERN PITTSYLVANIA COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF DANVILLE... Until 645 PM EDT At 553 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Gatewood, moving northeast at 30 mph. Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Danville... Chatham... Providence... Mayfield... and Blairs. This includes the following location Danville Airport. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. LAT...LON 3647 7927 3648 7965 3682 7964 3682 7916 TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 208DEG 28KT 3653 7941 AS
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 111 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:06 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Route 687 near Bacova Junction was closed in several spots with water and debris running across the road. The valley bottom was flooded up to near the houses and several culverts and parts of the road were damaged.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, May 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 759370.