Extended dry conditions caused the extension of Severe(D2) drought conditions into the eastern portion of Hudspeth County.
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The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.
Extended dry conditions caused the extension of Severe(D2) drought conditions into the eastern portion of Hudspeth County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 25, 4:47 AM MST, 7 hours 13 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 547 AM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A disturbance aloft will drop down this afternoon through Wednesday, allowing some thunderstorms to develop today, mostly over the mountains. A vigorous cool front will also push in tonight from the east, laying the way for dramatic cooling on Wednesday. Highs today will be around 5 degrees above normal, but highs on Wednesday will be some 15 degrees cooler than today. Isolated thunderstorms will continue and spread to the lowlands. The rest of the week will be dry with warming temperatures as high pressure builds back in over the Desert Southwest. && .DISCUSSION... Looks like a quick taste of autumn coming up, and then returning back to late summer weather. In the short term, long wave trough over upper Midwest will continue drifting east, with frontal band of moisture, possibly mostly aloft extending out this trough back across northern New Mexico to southern California. Back to the northwest, a short wave associated with a jet streak is rapidly dropping down the back side of the trough towards our area. Meanwhile, a surface cool front dropping down the front range of the Rockies is nearing the Oklahoma Panhandle and far NW New Mexico. For today and tonight...the frontal band will come through late today, adding a bit of deeper moisture to the CWA. This combined with modest instability, could kick off a few thunderstorms, mainly over the mountains. Will spread POPs to rest of area tonight as instability persists. The cool front should reach the Sac Mtns by later afternoon and then into the Rio Grande Valley by around midnight. This also could provide a focusing mechanism for thunderstorms. West slope winds will pick up through the night time hours, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph, mainly the west slopes of the Franklin and Hueco mountains. Wednesday...autumn will drop in for a visit as the cool front reaches Arizona border by afternoon. Aforementioned short wave also reaches western New Mexico by early afternoon. This will set up a strong shear environment. These ingredients should all combine to kick off more thunderstorms. In fact the shear would point toward severe potential, but big question is how much cooling takes place. Prog soundings show convective temperatures of around 80-83 degrees. Highs are expected to remain in the 70s most lowland sites-perhaps western lowlands could maintain their convective temperature. Good rule of thumb--watch today's high temps for the Texas Panhandle and our highs for Wednesday should be around 10 degrees warmer. Thursday into the weekend...late summer returns upper ridge aggressively builds in behind exiting trough. Low temps Thursday morning could be the coolest of the season, with notorious cold spots like Cliff, Gila Hot Springs, Lake Roberts all briefly dropping below freezing. Otherwise ridge will allow plenty of sunshine and quickly recovering temps, with highs back above normal by Friday. Beyond Sunday, forecast confidence is a mess as GFS and ECMWF continue to have significant differences as eastern Pacific tropical features proves tough to agree on. GFS shows wet solution Mon/Tue, while ECMWF shows drier solution as tropical feature has no impact on area. For now will lean to ECMWF. && .AVIATION...Valid 25/12Z-26/12Z... VFR conditions through forecast period. Skies P6SM SKC-FEW120 FEW250. After 18Z over mountains...isolated BKN080CB -TSRA. These conditions could develop over the remainder of the area after 22Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Increasing moisture today will allow a few thunderstorms to develop this afternoon, mostly over mountain zones. Thunderstorms could spread to lowlands tonight as vigorous cool front pushes in from the east. Much cooler on Wednesday with isolated thunderstorms continuing. After high temps today above normal, highs on Wednesday will cool about 10-15 degrees from today. Min RHs today mostly in the 20s, increasing to 30s lowlands and 50s mountains on Wednesday. Gusty east winds developing tonight into Wednesday morning. Thursday through the weekend looks dry as upper ridge builds back in. Temps back above normal by Friday and Saturday. Min RHs returning to the 20s lowlands and 30s mountains. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 90 64 75 55 / 0 0 10 20 Sierra Blanca 88 58 70 50 / 0 10 30 20 Las Cruces 89 60 76 51 / 0 0 10 20 Alamogordo 87 58 75 50 / 0 20 20 20 Cloudcroft 70 42 54 39 / 10 30 30 30 Truth or Consequences 85 57 74 52 / 0 20 20 20 Silver City 82 55 73 50 / 0 0 30 20 Deming 88 59 77 51 / 0 0 10 20 Lordsburg 86 60 79 54 / 0 0 10 10 West El Paso Metro 89 64 75 54 / 0 0 20 20 Dell City 91 59 71 51 / 0 20 30 20 Fort Hancock 92 63 75 53 / 0 0 20 20 Loma Linda 87 58 70 50 / 0 0 20 20 Fabens 91 62 75 53 / 0 0 20 20 Santa Teresa 89 61 76 53 / 0 0 10 20 White Sands HQ 89 59 75 51 / 0 0 10 20 Jornada Range 87 59 75 51 / 0 0 10 20 Hatch 88 59 78 52 / 0 0 10 20 Columbus 89 62 78 52 / 0 0 10 10 Orogrande 88 60 75 51 / 0 10 20 20 Mayhill 78 47 57 41 / 10 30 30 30 Mescalero 80 48 60 41 / 10 30 30 20 Timberon 79 48 61 40 / 10 30 30 30 Winston 81 50 71 45 / 10 40 40 20 Hillsboro 84 56 75 50 / 0 40 30 20 Spaceport 86 56 75 50 / 0 10 10 20 Lake Roberts 81 50 72 43 / 10 30 30 20 Hurley 83 55 75 49 / 0 0 20 20 Cliff 85 46 79 45 / 0 10 20 20 Mule Creek 84 47 78 47 / 0 0 10 10 Faywood 84 57 74 50 / 0 0 30 20 Animas 86 62 80 55 / 0 0 10 10 Hachita 87 59 77 51 / 0 0 10 10 Antelope Wells 85 59 78 54 / 0 0 20 20 Cloverdale 82 61 77 54 / 0 0 20 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && 17 Hefner
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1100 AM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018 NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-261700- Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley- Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel- Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin- Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes- Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley- Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin- West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet- East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa- Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County- Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County- 1100 AM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Just a few mountain storms expected today with minimal hazardous weather expected. However this evening and tonight a strong cold front will push in from the E/NE. This will provide a focus for increased shower and thunderstorm development as it pushes east to west across the region. In addition, there will be strong and gusty east winds, especially over west slopes and through passes that could cause minor damage to light structures. Heavy rain not expected over significant areas, but a few storms could produce small hail. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Much cooler conditions for Wednesday behind tonight's frontal passage. Continue breezy early Wednesday, especially SW New Mexico. Still potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms. Dry weather and becoming more seasonal Thursday through the weekend. Possible moisture return by Monday for more storm and rain potential. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. However spotter reports of any type of significant weather is always appreciated. Please call the NWS with your reports anytime. Bird
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
The northeastern half of the zone was put into Severe(D2) drought conditions due to extended dry conditions through the monsoon season.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, September 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 786116.