Wildfire in Texas, May 9 to 10, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
619 PM CDT Wed May 9 2018

.AVIATION...
A cluster of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and
move across southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle this
evening. Therefore, have put a tempo group in the GUY TAF site.
The rest of the sites are expected to remain rain free. A wind
shift is expected to move south across the GUY and DHT sites
overnight which will generally make the winds light and variable.
Southerly winds will then pick up again Thursday afternoon at DHT
and GUY. AMA should have a southerly wind through the forecast.
Skies are expected to remain VFR outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 439 PM CDT Wed May 9 2018/

DISCUSSION...
A shortwave is pushing some storms off the mountains towards the
northwestern Panhandles this evening. Storms may have some gusty
winds but not expecting much in the way of severe weather. Storms
should push eastwards across the northern one-third of the area
overnight and leave us dry until Sunday. Upper level ridging is
breaking down as it crosses the Rockies as a closed mid-level low
pushes southeast out of Canada. It will slide south into the Great
Basin region into the weekend where models continue to diverge in
solutions, some holding it in place while others lift it out. With
the craziness of solutions, shortwaves galore keep the Panhandles
in chances of precip from Sunday through the middle of next week.

Beat

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible in the western
Panhandles on Thursday. RH will drop to around 10 to 15 percent
and winds will be southerly right around 15 mph. There could be a
marginal risk of dry lightning Thursday in the western Panhandles.
On Friday, elevated to critical conditions will be possible. RH is
forecast to be 15 to 20 in the east and 7 to 15 in the west and
central Panhandles. Southwesterly winds will be 20 to 25 with
gusts to 40 mph. RFTI on Friday will be 3 in the east and
increasing to 6 to 7 in the west. ERCs are forecast to be mid to
upper 90s on Friday. Saturday could also see elevated conditions
with 10 to 20 percent RH across the area with the lowest in the
southwest to highest in the northeast. Winds will be southerly
around 15 to 20 mph. Fire weather is not expected Sunday through
the end of the period.

Beat

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf
     Smith...Hansford...Hartley...Hutchinson...Moore...Oldham...
     Palo Duro Canyon...Potter...Randall...Sherman.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for the following zones: Cimarron...Texas.

&&

15/24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
411 PM CDT Wed May 9 2018

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-100915-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
411 PM CDT Wed May 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible across the Oklahoma and northern
Texas Panhandles this evening and overnight. A strong storm can't
be ruled out, with strong winds being the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible
across portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles Thursday,
Friday, and Saturday.

Thunderstorms will be possible again Sunday through Tuesday for
portions of the Panhandles. A strong to marginally severe
thunderstorm can't be ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
elevated to critical fire weather conditions Thursday through
Saturday.

Beat