Scattered thunderstorms formed along a stationary boundary just west of the forecast area. Some storms became strong to severe as they moved into western and central parts of the region on May 15.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms formed along a stationary boundary just west of the forecast area. Some storms became strong to severe as they moved into western and central parts of the region on May 15.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 15, 2:08 PM CST, 52 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 308 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018 .SHORT TERM... There are two areas of convection that will be of concern to the forecast through the evening hours. The first area is an MCS that developed earlier this afternoon over western Oklahoma, that as of about 2:25 PM CDT is roughly 30 miles north of the Red River. These storms should cross the Red River and enter Montague and Cooke Counties during the next couple of hours. The environment ahead of these thunderstorms is characterized by SBCAPE of 2,000+ J/kg and surface dewpoints near 70 F. A few damaging wind reports have already been received with these thunderstorms over Oklahoma, and conditions are favorable for them to maintain intensity as they continue south, reaching the Dallas/Fort Worth area by around 6:00 PM this evening. While widespread severe weather is not anticipated with these storms, a few storms will likely be strong with gusty winds and small hail possible. The second area of convection is a cluster of thunderstorms that has developed along a line from Mineral Wells to Comanche. Highres guidance is not handling these storms as well as the more organized storms in Oklahoma, but nonetheless they are in an environment of around 2,500 J/kg SBCAPE and surface dewpoints in the upper 60s, so they too should maintain their intensity for the next few hours. These storms are expected to merge into a cluster and move south to southeast at 10-15 MPH. These storms will bring a threat for gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours to parts of Central Texas. A few storms could be severe with damaging winds and small hail possible. These storms should exit our county warning area around midnight tonight. Heading into the overnight, the forecast remains tricky as highres guidance has struggled all day with convective trends. Visible satellite imagery shows thunderstorms beginning to develop along the east side of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in northern New Mexico. This is fairly in line with the HRRR which grows these thunderstorms upscale into an MCS quickly. This MCS is forecast to move across the Texas Panhandle, then drop southeast into the Red River Valley late tonight as it rides northwest flow aloft. These thunderstorms should weaken significantly before reaching our county warning area, but will maintain chance PoPs along the Red River after midnight as some scattered showers and thunderstorms may remain. The overnight severe weather threat should be minimal. Godwin && .LONG TERM... /Wednesday through Tuesday/ Provided that storms impact most of the region tonight, the airmass should be fairly worked over Wednesday. Will keep a 20 percent chance of showers/storms over the entire area with the idea that any activity would either be isolated elevated morning showers or isolated surface based afternoon pop-up convection. Generally mostly sunny skies in the afternoon will help temperatures reach their highs of upper 80s in the north to lower 90s in the south. Once again more vigorous convection will develop to our west Wednesday afternoon. Although the atmosphere will not be quite as unstable as today, the mid level northwesterly flow does increase to 25-30 knots which should help this convective activity make it into the region after dark. No big squall lines are expected and this activity should stay isolated to scattered in nature so PoPs will be low and mainly over the western areas. Convection will dissipate as it heads into increasing inhibition in the heart of the CWA. Upper level ridging will begin to build over the region on Thursday, but it still looks like there will be another round of afternoon convection to our west and enough flow to potentially bring it into the western zones Thursday night. Otherwise temperatures will respond to the upper level ridging and increasing thickness values and warm to the 90-95 degree range across the entire region Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Will keep the rain out of the forecast during this time period, even though convection will continue to fire daily in west Texas. This is because the upper level flow will become more southwesterly ahead of the next upper trough and storm motions should keep the convection to the northwest of the CWA. This trough will result in stronger low level flow from the south and southeast by Sunday, bringing a "cooler" fetch off of the Gulf. High temperatures will trend slightly downward Sunday into early next week. As the trough moves into the Plains the flow may be more favorable for West Texas convection to reach the CWA Sunday night and upper level forcing may be sufficient for some home grown convection to bubble up over the area on Monday. Will keep PoPs in the 20 percent range due to concerns about the system being too far north of the region and an increasing cap as the cooler Gulf airmass in the lowest few thousand feet helps strengthen the inversion. TR.92 && .AVIATION... /Issued 1245 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018/ /18Z TAFs/ Concerns---Evening convection chances and wind shift. Convection that was near and east of KDAL this morning has since dissipated...leaving an area of subsidence in its wake. This should keep TSRA chances to a minimum through the rest of the afternoon...though a very isolated storm cannot be totally ruled out. An MCS has developed near a stationary front over western Oklahoma. Despite very little support from the highres guidance...large instability and high dewpoints out ahead of this convection should allow it to persist through the rest of the afternoon. These storms should make it at least to the Red River which would bring disruptions to the Bowie cornerpost by around 2100Z. If these storms persist well south of the Red River...they would begin affecting Metroplex TAF sites around 16/0100Z lasting through 0600Z. Given the lack of support from the highres guidance (despite seemingly favorable conditions for MCS maintenance)...confidence is low on the VCTS forecast this evening...so expect further refinements as the day progresses. Outflow winds from the MCS should turn prevailing winds out of the N...slowly veering through the day Wednesday with S flow likely returning by late Wednesday afternoon or early Wednesday evening. Godwin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 90 70 91 72 / 50 20 20 10 10 Waco 68 93 68 94 70 / 50 20 20 10 10 Paris 67 86 68 88 69 / 40 20 20 10 10 Denton 67 89 69 91 71 / 40 20 20 10 10 McKinney 67 88 69 90 70 / 50 20 20 10 10 Dallas 71 91 72 92 73 / 50 20 20 10 10 Terrell 68 90 68 91 70 / 50 20 20 10 10 Corsicana 68 91 68 91 70 / 40 20 20 10 10 Temple 68 94 69 93 70 / 30 20 20 10 10 Mineral Wells 66 90 67 92 68 / 40 20 30 10 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 37/92
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 329 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-161200- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 329 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Two separate areas of thunderstorms will impact North and Central Texas this evening. The first area is near the Red River and will move south into far North Texas during the early evening hours. Some of these thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and small hail. These storms may reach the Dallas/Fort Worth area by around 6:00 PM. A second area of thunderstorms is located over western North Texas. These storms are moving south to southeast, and will move into Central Texas during the evening hours. These thunderstorms will also be capable of producing damaging winds and hail up to half dollar size. These thunderstorms should exit Central Texas and move into Southeast Texas by midnight. Another round of thunderstorms may move into the Red River area late tonight after midnight, but these thunderstorms will likely weaken as they move into North Texas, and severe weather is not anticipated overnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Isolated storms will remain possible during the day Wednesday and into Wednesday night and again in western areas on Thursday night. Severe storms are not expected. However, these storms may produce gusty winds and small hail. After a dry period Friday through Sunday, low thunderstorm chances will return Sunday night and Monday. At this time, confidence is low on the potential for severe weather. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Limited spotter activation may be requested over portions of North and Central Texas this evening.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
219 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2018
TXZ130>132-152015-
Hood TX-Erath TX-Somervell TX-
219 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2018
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SOMERVELL...EAST CENTRAL
ERATH AND SOUTHWESTERN HOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...
At 218 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Stephenville, moving east at 10 mph.
Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Dinosaur Valley State Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to flooding of low water crossings. Do not drive your vehicle
through flooded roadways.
To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Fort Worth.
&&
LAT...LON 3236 9808 3232 9778 3209 9786 3206 9792
3219 9815
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 289DEG 9KT 3226 9803
BainSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 244 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2018 TXZ130-141-143-152030- Comanche TX-Erath TX-Hamilton TX- 244 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON... SOUTHEASTERN ERATH AND EAST CENTRAL COMANCHE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT... At 244 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9 miles southwest of Hico, or 11 miles north of Hamilton, moving south at 15 mph. Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Hamilton and Hico. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3207 9803 3172 9784 3163 9820 3196 9829 TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 339DEG 15KT 3188 9813 Bain
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
312 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2018
TXZ092-093-152130-
Grayson TX-Cooke TX-
312 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2018
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN COOKE AND
NORTHWESTERN GRAYSON COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...
At 311 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Marietta, moving southeast at 20 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Whitesboro, Pottsboro, Collinsville, Callisburg, Eisenhower State
Park, southern Lake Texoma, Southmayd and Sadler.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This storm may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3387 9688 3387 9681 3382 9676 3384 9669
3392 9666 3389 9658 3385 9663 3382 9652
3352 9686 3372 9711 3383 9705 3383 9718
3390 9725 3390 9719 3384 9717 3384 9703
3389 9698 3395 9700 3396 9692
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 309DEG 19KT 3393 9712
BainSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
336 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2018
TXZ116-152115-
Palo Pinto TX-
336 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2018
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PALO PINTO COUNTY
UNTIL 415 PM CDT...
At 336 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gordon, or 20 miles southwest of Mineral Wells, moving southeast at
10 mph.
Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Gordon.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3271 9835 3263 9806 3251 9807 3251 9833
3256 9841
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 297DEG 11KT 3260 9832
BainThe Ft Hood radar (KGRK), 116 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:01 UTC.
10 hail, 7 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained spotter reported power lines and tree limbs down.
Fire and rescue reported several trees down 5 miles west on Highway 36.
A public report indicated that two garage doors were blown in.
Golf ball size hail reported near US-84 just west of Evant.
Emergency management reported multiple power lines down just east of the city of Pottsboro, TX near the intersection of FM 1417 and Hwy 120.
A trained spotter reported multiple trees down approximately 1 mile west of the city of Evant, TX along Hwy 84.
Amateur radio reported multiple trees down near the city of Rumley, TX.
Spotters report 1 inch size hail driven into wall, causing damage to north and east walls.
Social media reports show up to ping pong ball size hail near Kempner.
A trained spotter reported considerable tree damage along FM 2313 north of the city of Kempner, TX, including multiple large oak trees downed.
Quarter size hail reported in Kempner.
Quarter size hail reported near Cundiff.
Emergency management reported nickel sized hail approximately 4 miles southwest of the city of Bowie, TX.
Emergency management reported nickel sized hail along Highway 287 just south of the city of Bowie, TX.
Emergency management reported penny-sized hail in the city of Bowie, TX.
Ping pong size hail reported from Haggar Baseball Complex.
Quarter size hail reported at the Bowie Emergency Operations Center.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 757180, 757181, 757182, 757252, 757454, 757455, 757432, 757265, 757269, 757433, 757260, 757264, 757442, 757444, 757446, 757272, 757273.