Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, March 10 to 11, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
937 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Strong convection continues along a warm front to our ne, across
central and srn AR. Our area has escaped this for the most part,
with only a couple of storms skirting our very outer edges.
Appears that this will be the trend for a while until additional
storms develop along a prefrontal trof later tonight/early Sunday
morning. Severe threat seems to be diminishing as well, although
still cannot rule out a couple of strong to severe storms
overnight as another weak upper disturbance passes ovhd. For the
update, see no reason to make any changes to overnight temps as
the ongoing fcst seems to be reasonably on track. Have made just a
few minor adjustments to PoPs based on latest model runs,
particularly the HRRR, mainly to adjust the area of highest PoPs
swd. No other changes expected attm. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 745 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018/

AVIATION...
For the 11/00Z terminal forecast will start off with VFR
prevailing at the sites, but expecting a return to MVFR
between 11/03Z-11/07Z for most terminals. As the ceilings
continue to lower a return to IFR between 11/06Z-11/12Z.
Have introduced mention of VCSH/VCTS in most of the sites
between 11/08Z-11/12Z along with tempo groups of TSRA.
a cold front. Have delayed mention of VCTS a couple of hours
A cold front will move South across the Four State Region
helping to continue convection into the early to mid morning
Sunday, when ceilings will return to MVFR and convection will
end as the boundary shift South. Additional improvements will
spread across the remainder of the region Sunday afternoon, with
VFR conditions returning to all but perhaps MLU by 12/00Z Monday.
Current trends in the model data hint at a return to MVFR beyond
the 12/00Z time period. Surface winds will be light Southeast to
South less than 7 knots with a turn to the Southwest prior to the
passage of the cold front, then Northwest to North in wake of the
cold front. By mid to late morning the Northerly winds will be
12-18 knots with higher gusts. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Warm front pushing north across area has brought dewpoints into
the lower to middle 60s for most of the area. This front will
begin to occlude with a weak cold front near I-40, with convection
deepening to our north late today. As this event slower to unfold,
left in lower pops this eve, with 50 percent pops and mention of
svr storms limited to ne edge of area prior to midnight. Deep
layer shear and somewhat drier air in mid lvls above around 800 mb
will yield a decent risk for hail in tstms, with cold air pooling
from the north bringing about increased wind threat by later this
eve. This frontal boundary will reach I-20 by shortly after
midnight and portions of North Central LA will have a longer time
to reside in warm sector and perhaps a little more instability for
deep convection into the late night. Boundary will reach southern
portions of area by daybreak which could make for tricky overnight
lows depending on exact position. Some cloudiness to remain Sunday
with showers movg mostly south of area after midday. However,
reinforcing stronger cold front movg thru Sunday night with skies
becmg clear and gusty north winds continuing into at least early
Monday. A cool dry airmass will send overnight lows into the 30s
for much of next week with deep nw flow. Showers and thunderstorms
beginning Friday aftn, will likely increase into the wknd invok
cold front next Sunday night. /07/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  69  40  60 /  50  30  10   0
MLU  61  70  41  59 /  60  50  10   0
DEQ  53  64  35  60 /  50  20   0   0
TXK  56  66  39  60 /  60  20   0   0
ELD  56  68  37  60 /  60  30  10   0
TYR  61  66  40  59 /  50  20  10   0
GGG  61  67  39  60 /  50  30  10   0
LFK  65  72  42  63 /  30  40  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

12/06/07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1208 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

ARZ070-071-LAZ001>005-010>014-017>022-TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-
136>138-149>153-165>167-111815-
Miller-Lafayette-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-
Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1208 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana, east
Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this
afternoon and into the overnight hours. Thunderstorms will
increase in coverage later tonight with a few strong storms
possible as strong gusty winds and hail may possibly occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Any lingering showers and storms will exit the region early Sunday
with frontal passage. Therefore, no hazardous weather is expected
at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators and storm spotters may be needed this evening through
the overnight hours.

ARZ050-051-059>061-072-073-LAZ006-OKZ077-111815-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Columbia-Union-
McCurtain-
1208 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana and
southeast Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this
afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and
intensity later tonight with a few strong to severe storms
possible. Strong to damaging wind gusts and large hail are
possible. Isolated tornadoes also cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Showers and thunderstorms will end before daybreak Sunday. No
hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators and storm spotters may be needed later this evening
through the overnight hours, mainly for Oklahoma and Arkansas
portions of the region.

07

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1015 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2018

TXZ108-109-111-110500-
Franklin TX-Morris TX-Titus TX-
1015 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...CENTRAL
MORRIS AND TITUS COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CST...

At 1014 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Hagansport, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Pleasant, Mount Vernon, Daingerfield, Naples, Omaha, Us 259 And
I 30 Intersection, Cookville, Winfield, Talco, Miller's Cove and
Roeder.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3337 9519 3331 9469 3330 9469 3329 9468
      3328 9466 3304 9473 3319 9524
TIME...MOT...LOC 0414Z 283DEG 22KT 3327 9513

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