Drought in Texas, March 1 to 31, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1058 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. A cold
front has pushed through KCDS and will quickly progress across
the KPVW and KLBB about the time or shortly after this set of TAFs
goes into effect at 06Z. North wind will slowly decrease in speed
through the day Thursday before becoming light and variable
tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 216 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Winds slowly coming up this afternoon - still expected to be
windy enough for at least patchy dust on the Caprock late this
afternoon. Culprit for delay of winds is the closed upper low
west of the Arizona-New Mexico border with upper flow remaining
backed enough for high cloud bands stretched overhead and enough
instability for light rain showers within the bands. Once the
opening upper low crosses into the western Texas Panhandle close
to midnight tonight we will see a modest cold front push south
through our area mainly after midnight along with drier air. From
here on we do not see very many changes to the previous forecast
package. Breezy north winds behind the front and highs cooling
into the upper 50s to lower 60s Thursday. Then quick recovery back
to southerly component and warmer temperatures for Friday into
the weekend. Also, improving low level moisture especially off the
Caprock with backing upper flow ahead of the massive cold upper
trough system along the west coast edging slowly into the
intermountain west over the weekend.

Solutions are also showing an energetic wave emerging across the
southern Rockies into the high plains late Sunday with potential
for much stronger surface pressure gradients and a solid uptick in
wind speeds. Current timing of this system indicates strongest
winds across our western zones or even a little further west on
Sunday - but any faster ejection could lead to stronger winds
further east into our area. Another uncertainty yet with this
system will be how long upper flow will remain backed enough for
valid thunder chances favoring our eastern counties on Sunday. For
now, this version of blended solutions agreed fairly close to our
going forecast and was followed. Another cold front and drier air
would likely follow into early next week followed by a gradual
warmup heading into the middle of next week. RMcQueen

FIRE WEATHER...
Mostly elevated fire danger seems to be the dominant feature this
afternoon - though we still expect wind speeds to increase late
this afternoon and humidities a little below 15 percent in some
areas. So, locally critical fire weather conditions will exist
into the early evening. We have been closely following trends
today and can't rule out upgrading to a Red Flag Warning in local
areas if needed - especially the extreme southern Texas Panhandle
and the southwest part of the South Plains. Cold front will pass
late tonight and early Thursday with cooler temperatures and less
wind Thursday. Increasing southwest breezes and warmer conditions
will return Friday into the weekend, along with improved low
level moisture at least over the Rolling Plains. A strong upper
wave is expected to move across the southern Rockies into the high
plains late Sunday with potential for renewed elevated to critical
fire danger. RMcQueen

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

01/14

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
650 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018

TXZ021>044-020100-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
650 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains...Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible late
Sunday mainly on the Caprock.