Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, June 2 to 4, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
622 PM CDT Sat Jun 2 2018

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions should continue across West Central Texas terminals
through Sunday morning. A few isolated showers and storms have
developed early this evening along a diffuse cold front, but none
of the activity is close to a terminal location and given the slow
movement, they may not approach before the activity dissipates by
around sunset. Northeast winds, gusty at times, prevail behind the
front across the KABI and KSJT terminals, but lighter and more
variable winds will likely continue through tonight across the
souther locations.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 255 PM CDT Sat Jun 2 2018/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

..Cooler...

A late season cold front will bring temporary relief from the
heat, along with the potential for much needed rain. The cold
front, which is currently just south of our Interstate 20
corridor, will continue to move slowly south tonight and
tomorrow. By sunrise Sunday, the front should be at or just south
of our Interstate 10 corridor. This front may provide a focus for
showers and thunderstorms, mainly this evening and again tomorrow
afternoon. Model solutions indicate convection will be isolated,
if it does develop. Thus, continuing 20 PoPs looks best.
Otherwise, afternoon highs tomorrow will be much closer than
seasonal normals, mainly in the 90 to 95 range.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Saturday)

..Possible Rain and Returning Heat...

Temperatures will remain comparatively cool into Monday, with the
potential for showers and thunderstorms into Tuesday. An upper
disturbance, moving just to our north, may produce thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and evening. If so, some of those thunderstorms
may produce large hail and damaging winds, mainly along and north
of our Interstate 20 corridor. The Storm Prediction Center has
our counties there in a marginal risk area, in their Day 3
Outlook. Also, the heat returns beginning Tuesday with afternoon
highs back in the 100 to 103 range. Beyond Tuesday, models remain
dry, with afternoon highs well above seasonal normals. Thus, watch
for more Heat Advisories mid to late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 71  90  67  92 /  20   0  10  30
San Angelo 	 73  92  70  96 /  20  10  20  20
Junction 	 74  94  71  96 /  20  20  20  20
Brownwood 	 72  90  67  92 /  20  10  10  30
Sweetwater 	 70  89  68  93 /  10  10  20  20
Ozona      	 72  92  70  95 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Coke-Coleman-
Concho-Crockett-Irion-McCulloch-Menard-Runnels-Schleicher-
Sterling-Tom Green.

&&

07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
429 AM CDT Sat Jun 2 2018

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-030930-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
429 AM CDT Sat Jun 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Concho Valley, northern
Edwards Plateau, and western Heartland areas this afternoon.

The heat will affect outdoor activities, so necessary precautions
should be taken in order to stay safe and cool. Remember to drink
plenty of water, stay indoors when possible, and avoid the heat
during the middle of the day and afternoon hours.

There is a slight chance for a few thunderstorms mainly south of a
Sterling City to Brownwood line during the afternoon and evening
hours. The main hazards with any storms that develop will be gusty
winds, large hail, and dangerous lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The threat for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
638 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

TXZ076>078-030015-
Schleicher TX-Crockett TX-Sutton TX-
638 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SCHLEICHER AND
NORTHEASTERN CROCKETT COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 637 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Ozona, moving south at 5 mph.

Pea sized hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern
Schleicher and northeastern Crockett Counties, including the
following locations... I-10 Near The Crockett-Sutton County Line.

This includes Interstate 10 between Mile Markers 354 and 386.

LAT...LON 3092 10130 3088 10085 3060 10086 3067 10140
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 061DEG 6KT 3085 10127

PO