Damaging Wind in Texas, June 13, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
400 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Thursday Night/

Scattered convection has developed in Central Arkansas along a
remnant outflow boundary. Farther south, more isolated showers and
storms associated with the sea breeze has developed across
portions of Deep East Texas and Central Louisiana. The Arkansas
convection, while quite robust, is making very slow progress
southward. All of this activity is mainly diurnally driven and
should gradually dissipate during the evening hours, but a few
locations in Southern Arkansas could be affected before the storms
wane.

A broad upper ridge will continue to move northward into the
Southern Plains. The expansion of the ridge across Southeast
Oklahoma should keep the best chances for diurnal convection
mainly along and south of the Interstate 30 corridor, and
especially southeast of a line from Toledo Bend Dam to Monroe LA.
Conditions will generally be similar to today, so daytime high
temperatures should also be similar on Thursday.

CN

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/

Stubborn UA ridge centered across the Desert Southwest today will
commence to shift to the north of the Four-State Region by the end
of this week, resulting in southeast flow aloft. Ensuing srly sfc
flow will maintain a fetch of rich Gulf moisture across the FA and
when coupled with daytime destabilization /and the center of the UA
ridge not directly overhead/ may result in diurnally driven isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday through the weekend.
As typical of this time of year, can not rule out a few of the
storms reaching strong levels with brief gusty winds and occasional
cloud to ground lightning being the primary threats, but overall the
severe weather threat will be low given lack of UL support.

Early next week may prove to become interesting as the National
Hurricane Center has focused on an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms across the western Caribbean. Computer models hint at
this system drifting northwestward to across the southeast TX coast
Sunday night and to across the FA Monday morning/afternoon, driven
by a broad UA ridge that will then become centered across the
southeast CONUS. Subsequently, bouts of moderate to heavy rainfall
could impact mainly the western-half of the CWA early next week. Of
course the exact track of the disturbance could change so be sure to
stay up-to-date with the latest weather information. Thereafter, the
center of UA ridge will retrograde back southwestward but this time,
become centered across the central and southern portions of the CWA.
Could therefore see diurnally driven convection more so across
southeast OK and portions southwest AR.

Daytime temps will remain warm in the lower to middle 90s through
early weekend but will drop down into the middle to upper 80s to
lower 90s early next week, with the onset of the Gulf disturbance
and thus associated increased cloud cover and rainfall.

/29/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1248 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018/

AVIATION...
For the 13/18z TAFs, isolated convection persists along an
outflow boundary moving west and southwest across the area. So
far, coverage has been extremely spotty, but additional
development will be possible before most of the convection
dissipates by 14/02z. KTXK, KELD, and KMLU are the TAF sites that
will most likely be affected by precip this period. Otherwise, VFR
conditions should prevail for most of this TAF cycle. The
exception will be low stratus and patchy fog that may lead to MVFR
ceilings and visibilities between 14/08z-14/15z across portions
of East Texas south of Interstate 20, which includes KTYR, KGGG,
and KLFK.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  94  75  95 /  20  20  10  20
MLU  74  92  74  93 /  30  30  20  30
DEQ  72  94  72  93 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  75  94  75  93 /  10  20  10  20
ELD  72  94  74  93 /  20  20  10  20
TYR  75  93  75  94 /  10  20  10  20
GGG  75  94  74  94 /  10  20  10  20
LFK  74  94  74  94 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

09/29

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
251 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-142000-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
251 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop across portions
of the Four-State Region this afternoon through early evening.
Brief gusty winds and occasional lightning may occur with some of
the thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible every day
through Wednesday. Gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall, and
deadly lightning are possible with the stronger storms. The higher
rain chances and the possibility of heavier rainfall will occur
during the latter half of the weekend and into the early portions
of next week as a disturbance in the western Gulf moves towards
the region. While a couple of thunderstorms could possibly equate
strong levels, widespread organized severe weather is not expected
at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters should not be needed through
tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
441 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2018

ARZ073-LAZ006-132215-
Union AR-Union LA-
441 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY IN
SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL UNION PARISHES UNTIL 515 PM
CDT...

At 441 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southwest of Huttig, along the Arkansas and Louisiana state
line, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Huttig, Felsenthal, Cecil and Litroe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3294 9225 3302 9235 3316 9214 3316 9211
      3315 9211 3314 9212 3312 9212 3311 9214
      3307 9213 3307 9211 3303 9211 3303 9209
      3302 9208
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 229DEG 11KT 3301 9223

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