Drought in Texas, January 1 to 31, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1047 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR has returned to all the terminals as of late this evening. We
generally expect VFR to continue over the coming 24 hours along
with relatively light winds. However, there is a low chance low
VFR to high MVFR ceilings could drift back over KLBB and KPVW on
Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 216 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Banded snow showers continued to press south across the region
late this afternoon ahead of thinning stratus and clearing skies
in the eastern Panhandle. Accumulations have been mostly a trace
to a tenth of an inch, but the snow fell with enough punch to
cause traffic slowdowns. Overall, trends from radar and area
skycams show a steady diminishing theme to this snow, therefore
the Winter Weather Advisory will be allowed to expire at 3 PM.

As subsidence and clearing overtake the region this evening ahead
of a stout 1047mb Arctic high in the Dakotas, we expect the
coldest low temperatures in years for much of the region. Given
MOS' warm bias with temps this afternoon, have opted for the more
realistic NationalBlend for lows tonight. This nets a low of 3 degrees
for Lubbock which interestingly would be the coldest low here since
February 2, 2011.

Despite rising pressures and a relaxing pressure gradient tonight,
wind speeds still look to hold around 10 mph which is enough to
maintain the Wind Chill Advisory. A few of our northern counties
may see wind chills flirt with -15F after midnight, but values as
a whole should remain within the -5F to -14F territory.

As the frigid surface ridge departs the region late Monday through
Tuesday, winds at the top of the cold dome will turn more
southerly and serve to modify temps within this shallow airmass.
Still, models tend to overturn these Arctic airmasses too soon, so
we continue to favor sub-freezing highs through Tuesday before
enough modification unfolds on Wednesday. Provided this happens,
then Lubbock would see at least 96 hours of freezing temps which
would be a new top-10 record. Otherwise, milder thicknesses and
rising heights downstream of an upper ridge over the western
CONUS will supply the region with a much needed warming trend
through the end of the first week of 2018.

From everyone here at the NWS Lubbock office, we wish everyone a
Happy New Year!

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Monday for TXZ021>044.

&&

23

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
305 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2017

TXZ021>044-012115-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
305 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains...Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Wind Chill Advisory remains in effect for all areas from this
evening through noon on New Years Day. Wind chills of 5 below
to 14 below zero are likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Temperatures should remain below freezing through Wednesday
morning.