An upper trough was moving over the Rockies with a surface trough near the Rio Grande helped to trigger thunderstorms over Hudspeth County. An apparent microburst occurred in Dell City with one of the strongest storms.
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The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.
An upper trough was moving over the Rockies with a surface trough near the Rio Grande helped to trigger thunderstorms over Hudspeth County. An apparent microburst occurred in Dell City with one of the strongest storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 18, 1:24 PM MST, 27 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 224 PM MDT Sat Aug 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A pair of upper level disturbances will move through the area tonight, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to much of the region. Much drier air will work into the area behind the disturbances, nearly shutting off afternoon thunderstorm activity on Sunday, and helping boost temperatures across the lowlands. A few areas may see highs around 100 degrees on Sunday. A weak backdoor cold front will drop temperatures by a few degrees on Monday. Thunderstorm chances will increase over the higher terrain of the Gila Region and Sacramento Mountains again starting on Monday, but will stay focused over the higher mountains for much of the week. && .DISCUSSION... We should see an active afternoon and evening across the area (in terms of convection), followed by a sharp downturn in activity for tomorrow, and a fairly anemic start to the week ahead. Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough/vort lobe moving into Grant and Sierra Counties from the NW currently, with a more significant trough further to the north (with significant drying in its wake). There's a bit of wind shift at the surface, going from light W over most of SW New Mexico to light NW over Catron County, and this is likely the ill-defined tail end of a surface trough that curves up into SE Colorado. The NAM and GFS push both of these upper disturbances through the area overnight, with significant drying behind the second trough basically shutting us down tomorrow as PW values drop into the 0.50 to 0.75 inch range tomorrow afternoon over most of the CWA. Modifying the 12Z EPZ sounding for a Dewpoint of 55 and a Temp of 94 (and mixing the boundary layer) yields a SBCAPE of 1200 J/Kg and little to no CIN, and maintains a healthy 1.40" PW. However, RAP analysis shows moderate instability (CAPEs of 800-1200 J/Kg) mainly south of I-10, with weaker instability further north, and much lower values over the Rio Grande Valley north of Las Cruces. Rather flat Cu over the lowlands on satellite supports this, as does the weakening trend of the first round of storms coming off the Black Range. Additional storms/outflow over Catron and Socorro Counties suggests we'll see another round of storms in Grant and western Sierra Counties in the next hour or two. Most higher-res models suggest storms over Grant/Sierra Counties will propogate south and east into the lowlands, while isolated storms develop later this afternoon over the Sacramento Mountains, Hudspeth County, and higher terrain in NE Chihuahua. This convection NE to SE of El Paso should be enough to produce an outflow boundary which may become a focus for additional thunderstorm development later on, especially as storms and stronger outflow from the NW push into the area, aided by the aforementioned upper level trough. Earlier runs of the HRRR seemed to really favor SW New Mexico (esp Luna County) for convective coverage later today, but subsequent runs have been far less consistent. HREF members seem to prefer South-Central NM and the El Paso area, but with little agreement on timing. All that being said, I like SW New Mexico this afternoon and early evening (and more spotty storms over Otero/Hudspeth), with the focus shifting to Dona Ana/El Paso/Southern Otero Counties this evening. This will largely hinge on getting a decent storms going in the next few hours to our NW, as outflow generated by these storms will be a necessary trigger. With the other (more significant) upper level trough approaching later this evening, there's a good chance at seeing storms linger after midnight, with the most favored area sort of stretched out E-W near and just south of New Mexico/Chihuahua border and into West Texas... basically following the orientation of the approaching trough. Main weather hazard will be localized flooding with back-building storms or slow-moving. Storm motion has been a little better than this morning's sounding would suggest, but storm motion is likely to be slower closer the further SE you go (note the storms south of Hudspeth County are barely moving). We could see a few showers lingering in southern Hudspeth County early in the morning tomorrow, otherwise, significant drying aloft and at the surface will shutoff thunderstorm activity for tomorrow. I kept in a slight chance over the Sacramento Mountains, but that might be a stretch. With the lack of moisture, temperatures will climb up and possibly meet or exceed the 100-degree mark over some lowland areas, including ELP. Sunday night, a backdoor cold front will bring increasing NE to E flow, with some noticeably gusty (but below advisory-level) winds expected along west-facing slopes. Low level moisture will increase markedly behind the front, but we'll remain very dry aloft, with PW values Monday afternoon hovering around 1.00 inch. Stable conditions will limit thunderstorm potential over most of the area, but scattered storms can be expected over the higher terrain of the Gila Region and the Sacramento Mountains. With the subtropical ridge located over the AZ/NM border, steering flow will remain weak, and the risk of spot flooding will crop up again in the higher terrain. The ridge looks to drift eastwards slowly through the week, with weak steering flow continuing. Upper and lower-level moisture will remain anemic, and slowly warming temperatures aloft coupled with the drier conditions will yield weak instability. What limited thunderstorm chances we'll have will be mainly focused in the higher terrain. Luckily, the ridge itself isn't terribly strong, so while temperatures will climb above average, they should stay in the middle to upper-90s. Better moisture will be pulled up west of the Continental Divide towards the middle and later parts of the week, to the benefit of Arizona and Sonora. But as the ridge shifts into central Texas Fri-Sat, we'll hopefully start to see some of that moisture work back east of the Divide. && .AVIATION...Valid 19/00Z-20/00Z... Period will start out with SCT-BKN080-100 BKN150-200 and isolated to scattered VRB25G40KT 1-3SM TSRA BKN030-040 through 06Z. After 06Z skies will begin to clear from N to S with just some FEW-SCT100-120 expected to develop after 18Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... After some afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, much drier air will be moving in from the north for Sunday. Just a couple isolated storms possible in the Sacs during the afternoon. Relative humidities will be falling into the teens for most locations Sunday afternoon as temperatures approach the 100 degree mark again for the lowlands. A back door cold front will move through Sunday night and bring an increase in low level moisture and relative humidities for the upcoming week. Thunderstorm chances look minimal except the mountains through midweek as upper ridge that's been persistent over the western U.S. moves eastward. As the high moves east, a more typical monsoon pattern will setup,toward the end of the week, but at this time it looks like the best precipitation chances will be closer to the Arizona border. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 76 101 76 95 / 40 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 72 96 70 91 / 40 20 10 0 Las Cruces 69 98 69 94 / 40 0 0 0 Alamogordo 68 97 68 93 / 40 10 0 10 Cloudcroft 52 75 48 67 / 50 10 10 50 Truth or Consequences 70 98 68 93 / 30 0 0 0 Silver City 63 92 60 89 / 40 0 0 10 Deming 68 99 69 96 / 40 0 0 0 Lordsburg 68 97 66 96 / 40 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 75 99 75 94 / 40 10 0 0 Dell City 70 99 70 93 / 40 20 0 0 Fort Hancock 75 101 73 96 / 40 20 0 0 Loma Linda 70 96 69 89 / 50 20 0 0 Fabens 70 100 70 95 / 40 20 0 0 Santa Teresa 73 99 73 95 / 40 10 0 0 White Sands HQ 71 98 70 94 / 40 0 0 0 Jornada Range 68 98 67 95 / 40 0 0 0 Hatch 67 98 67 95 / 40 0 0 0 Columbus 71 99 71 97 / 40 10 0 0 Orogrande 73 98 73 93 / 40 10 0 0 Mayhill 59 83 54 75 / 50 10 10 40 Mescalero 58 85 54 79 / 40 10 10 50 Timberon 56 84 55 77 / 50 10 10 40 Winston 57 91 52 86 / 40 0 0 20 Hillsboro 65 96 64 92 / 40 0 0 10 Spaceport 67 97 67 92 / 40 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 51 90 49 87 / 40 0 0 30 Hurley 63 93 61 90 / 40 0 0 10 Cliff 57 96 56 94 / 30 0 0 20 Mule Creek 57 94 55 93 / 30 0 0 10 Faywood 65 94 64 90 / 40 0 0 10 Animas 69 97 67 97 / 30 0 0 0 Hachita 69 98 68 96 / 40 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 67 95 67 94 / 40 0 0 0 Cloverdale 65 92 63 91 / 40 10 0 20 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && 25-Hardiman / 26-Grzywacz
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1231 PM MDT Sat Aug 18 2018 NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-191845- Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley- Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel- Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin- Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes- Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley- Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin- West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet- East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa- Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County- Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County- 1231 PM MDT Sat Aug 18 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Locally heavy rainfall from slow-moving scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will produce spot flooding in a few places. A few storms may also produce small hail and wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Thunderstorm activity will take a major downturn on Sunday as drier air moves in aloft. Thunderstorms will generally be focused on the higher terrain Monday through Friday, with just isolated thunderstorms in the lowlands. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are asked to report any significant weather occurrence to local law enforcement and to the NWS office via phone or by Twitter using our office handle @NWSElPaso
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service El Paso TX 109 PM MDT SAT AUG 18 2018 NMZ402-403-407>409-182000- Eastern Black Range Foothills NM- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley NM- Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range NM- Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin NM-Sierra County Lakes NM- 109 PM MDT SAT AUG 18 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN GRANT...SOUTHWESTERN SIERRA AND NORTHEASTERN LUNA COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM MDT... At 109 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5 miles southwest of Lake Valley, or 13 miles northwest of Nutt, moving south southeast at 15 mph. Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Macho Springs Wind Farm, Cookes Peak and Lake Valley. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. && LAT...LON 3275 10774 3278 10758 3247 10740 3245 10774 TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 351DEG 12KT 3268 10764 TRIPOLI
The El Paso radar (KEPZ), 142 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:49 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Apparent microburst at the Dell City West Texas Mesonet Site.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, August 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 779974.