Storms originating in Oklahoma and Northwest Texas worked their way into the northwest counties of North Texas, bringing gusty thunderstorm winds to the area during the afternoon and evening hours of August 17, 2018.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
Storms originating in Oklahoma and Northwest Texas worked their way into the northwest counties of North Texas, bringing gusty thunderstorm winds to the area during the afternoon and evening hours of August 17, 2018.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 17, 5:52 PM CST, 1 hour 23 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 652 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018 .AVIATION... 00 UTC TAF Cycle Concerns---Convective and wind shift potential on Saturday at Metroplex TAFs. Otherwise, VFR. The current cluster of thunderstorms along the Red River may continue to impact northbound departures as well as arrivals from the northwest. This activity is expected to decay before making a run at the Metroplex TAFs. We'll monitor these storms and amend if they appear to threaten Metroplex TAFs. Overnight, lift will increase above FL080 to result in high-based convection. Moisture isn't overly deep, so it's possible that only showers may result and for now, I'll advertise VCSH from 08 to 11 UTC on Saturday. If 00 UTC guidance arrives and supports TS, this may need to be re- inserted into the TAF. SH or TS could result in some turbulence below FL080. Later in the day...a cold front will slowly sag southward and will induce westerly surface winds. Some guidance advertises that winds may become more WNW at around 6-8 knots and this could necessitate a shift in the takeoff/landing configurations. As this boundary nears the I-20 corridor, new convection appears probable and I've placed VCTS in for all Metroplex terminals between 22 UTC Saturday and 02 UTC Sunday. Winds may also become more northerly Saturday afternoon and evening, depending on the southward extent of the front. Confidence as to how far south this front/wind shift gets is low. If this wind shift does occur, it'll likely be for a 2-4 hour time period and southerly winds should return by 05 UTC Sunday. Waco will remain south enough such that the threat for convection is very low. With dry air just above the surface, only a few puffs of CU are expected. Otherwise, VFR with just a few high clouds streaming in overhead. Bain && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 325 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018/ /Rest of Today and Tonight/ Visible satellite imagery reveals a small area of towering cumulus bubbling across our northwestern counties where a few convective cells are trying to develop. Mesoanalysis reveals a local minimum in mixed-layer convective inhibition here, so we'll carry a 20% PoP this afternoon north and west of a Cisco to Mineral Wells to Gainesville line to account for any additional development. Since things are unstable and nearly uncapped elsewhere across North Texas, we'll advertise a very low (10%) mention elsewhere mainly north of I-20 through the afternoon. DCAPE values pushing 1000-1500 J/kg support a localized downburst threat in the vicinity of any more robust cells, and a 50-60 mph gust cannot be discounted, although thus far, cells are having a hard time establishing themselves. This activity will dwindle with the loss of heating this evening, but additional storms will likely be firing in the vicinity of a cold front which will be pushing towards the Red River this evening. Since this activity will be surface-based, it too should also begin to succumb to the effects of increasing nocturnal inhibition through the evening hours. We'll hold the highest (30%) PoPs to the immediate Red River counties, but can't rule out a stray shower or storm attempting to push south towards the I-20 corridor. A very localized threat for a strong to severe wind gust will persist through about 10 PM from Montague to Fannin counties. Late tonight an area of strong ascent--elevated above the stabilizing boundary layer--will materialize across North Texas as a 25-35 kt low- level jet develops. Things look too dry west of I-35 to support elevated convection, but moisture increases to the east. Given the magnitude of forecast ascent and presence of 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE, we've introduced low PoPs roughly east of I-35 and north of I-20 after midnight. Severe weather is not anticipated given very weak mid-level winds. Carlaw && .LONG TERM... /Issued 325 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018/ /Saturday through Friday/ Similar to this morning, a cluster of thunderstorms may be ongoing mainly to the north early Saturday morning primarily due to a strong band of low level warm advection which will be maximized near the Red River. This activity should be in a weakening state as the low level flow continues to veer and weaken through the morning hours. While this convection may send an outflow boundary southward, the main feature of concern will be the quasi-stationary frontal boundary across southern Oklahoma. This front will likely begin to slowly advance southward as a cold front in the wake of a weak mid level shortwave that spreads through the region. Surface winds are expected to weaken as the front moves into North Texas which will allow temperatures to climb to near 100 degrees areawide. In addition, moisture may pool along the boundary creating pockets of very hot and humid conditions with heat indices in excess of 105 degrees. Convergence along the front will be weak but as we progress through the afternoon and temperatures climb, we should see some higher based convection attempt to develop. This activity should increase in coverage during the late afternoon and early evening hours as stronger forcing for ascent spreads into the Southern Plains. We'll keep PoPs at 20-30% mainly from the Metroplex northward tomorrow afternoon and evening. Any storms that develop tomorrow afternoon would have ample dry air beneath them to support damaging downburst winds. On Sunday, as the main shortwave digs into the Plains, the weak frontal boundary across our area should spread northward into Oklahoma. With the strongest ascent spreading northward, we should see less activity around than we do on Saturday and any isolated storms should be confined to areas mainly north of the Metroplex. Stronger forcing for ascent will arrive Sunday night as this shortwave ejects eastward and the main cold front slides south into North Texas. Thunderstorm chances will increase late Sunday night into Monday morning from north to south along and ahead of the cold front. With the main area of forcing spreading farther east though, not all areas are expected to pick up rainfall. Coverage may actually decrease on Monday morning with new thunderstorms developing across the southeast late Monday afternoon and evening. The air behind this front isn't very cool or significantly drier, so temperatures will only fall into the lower 90s which is still a few degrees below seasonal norms. Low thunderstorm chances may creep back into the picture by late next week as moist low level flow spreads back into the region and a disturbance rotates around stronger ridging to the west. We'll continue to monitor this potential. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 99 80 96 78 / 20 30 20 20 40 Waco 78 101 78 98 78 / 5 10 5 5 20 Paris 76 94 75 92 74 / 20 30 30 30 60 Denton 77 98 77 95 76 / 20 30 20 20 40 McKinney 78 98 78 95 76 / 20 30 20 20 40 Dallas 82 100 81 96 79 / 20 30 20 20 40 Terrell 78 99 78 96 78 / 20 30 20 20 30 Corsicana 77 100 78 97 77 / 10 20 10 10 20 Temple 75 100 76 99 76 / 0 5 5 5 10 Mineral Wells 74 99 76 96 74 / 20 30 10 10 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 24/82
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 331 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-181200- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 331 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight. There is a low chance of thunderstorms this evening mainly north of I-20 and west of I-35. Any storms that develop could produce strong winds and lightning. Thunderstorm chances will spread east overnight, mainly north of I-20 and east of I-35. Lightning will be the main threat overnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon and evening mainly along and north of I-20. Any storms that develop could producing strong winds and lightning. Thunderstorm chances will increase areawide Sunday night into early Monday as a cold front moves through the region. Frequent lightning and gusty winds will be the main threats. Low storm chances return to areas mainly west of I-35 on Thursday and Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Limited spotter activation may be requested this afternoon and evening along and north of I-20. Dunn
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
430 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018
TXZ100-172200-
Young TX-
430 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN YOUNG COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM CDT...
At 429 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southeast of Olney. This storm was nearly stationary.
Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.
This storm was located near Jean.
LAT...LON 3339 9870 3340 9842 3314 9842 3313 9843
3312 9870
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 250DEG 4KT 3330 9857
JLDunnSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 459 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018 TXZ100-172230- Young TX- 459 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YOUNG COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM CDT... At 458 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10 miles northwest of Graham. This storm was nearly stationary. Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Graham, Olney and Newcastle. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. If on or near Lake Graham...get off the water and get to the shoreline or safe harbor. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. && LAT...LON 3340 9895 3339 9842 3300 9865 3314 9895 TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 031DEG 4KT 3324 9866 Bain
The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 138 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:13 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Pieces of a mobile home roof were removed by gusty winds in the city of Caps Corners, TX as storms moved in from the northwest.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, August 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 782155.