Damaging Winds in Texas, August 12, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
248 PM CDT Sun Aug 12 2018

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday night): Mid level ridging continues
over the Gulf as a 500mb low persists over northern Texas. Surface
high pressure will prevail across the Gulf of Mexico through the
short term as a stationary front lingers across the central Texas.
Brownsville radar currently indicates some convection associated
with an outflow boundary south of the Rio Grande River. This
activity is moving to north near 30 mph and is expected to diminish
around sunset. However, isolated rain chances will continue across
the far west tonight due to increase moisture and the close
proximity to the stalled front/upper level trough.

Some drier air moves into deep south Texas from the east tonight
into Monday. No rainfall is expected overnight through Monday night.
Low temperatures tonight and Monday night will be in the 75 to 80
degree range under partly cloudy skies. High temperatures Monday
will climb a degree or two than today, mainly due to less cloud
cover. Temperatures Monday afternoon will generally be in the 90s
with heat index values around 105 degrees in some locations.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday): Long term remains rather
typical of early to mid August in Deep South Texas, with hot
temperatures and mostly dry conditions. Models stick with a weak
mid level inverted trough of low pressure approaching around the
south to southwestern side of the ridge across the Bay of
Campeche, coupled with increased low level moisture extended
northward over the Gulf of Mexico.

Have kept isolated pops offshore Tuesday through Thursday. The
seabreeze may have a better shot at developing isolated convection
across coastal areas Friday through Saturday as the weak mid
level trough swings westward over Mexico. Temperatures remain
slightly above normal, gaining a degree or two by Thursday with
southerly flow, dry conditions, and limited cloud cover. Heat
indices are expected to be in the 105-109 degree range through the
period.

&&

.MARINE (Now through Monday night): Generally moderate southeast
winds and moderate seas are expected through Monday night with
high pressure in control. Small craft should exercise caution
conditions will be likely on the Laguna Madre on Monday. Small
craft should exercise caution conditions will continue on the
lower Texas Gulf waters through Monday night. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop through this
evening.

Tuesday through Saturday: Breezy winds Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday evening will likely keep Small Craft Exercise Caution
conditions in play for the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters.
Conditions will slowly improve Wednesday into Thursday with
moderate seas of 2 to 4 feet expected into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  93  81  93 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          80  95  81  96 /  10   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            79  97  79  97 /  10   0   0  10
MCALLEN              81  99  81 100 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      78 101  77 102 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  87  81  86 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short Term/Aviation...Caceres-63
Long Term...Hallman-56
Graphicast/PSU...Bogorad-59

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
451 AM CDT Sun Aug 12 2018

TXZ248>257-351-353-131000-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
451 AM CDT Sun Aug 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Heat index values will be in the 103 to 108 degree range Monday
through Saturday afternoons.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-131000-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to
60 nm-
451 AM CDT Sun Aug 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at area beaches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

An elevated rip current risk will continue through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
304 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2018

TXZ255-257-122045-
Coastal Cameron TX-Inland Cameron TX-
304 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CAMERON AND SOUTHEASTERN WILLACY
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 303 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of South Point, or 10 miles south of Southmost, moving
north at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Harlingen, San Benito, La Feria, Los Fresnos, Santa Rosa, South Padre
Island, Rancho Viejo, Rio Hondo, Palm Valley and Los Indios.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2589 9752 2603 9764 2606 9784 2631 9783
      2634 9722 2633 9732 2631 9731 2632 9732
      2633 9734 2627 9734 2627 9733 2631 9730
      2627 9731 2634 9721 2637 9721 2607 9714
      2605 9716 2595 9715 2593 9735 2584 9738
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 169DEG 33KT 2575 9743

Hallman