Wildfire in Texas, April 17 to 22, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
345 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Focus of this forecast package is on the short term. See Fire
Weather Section Below.

Strong winds are expected to continue into the late evening
hours. The advertised cold front also remains on schedule to move
across the area this evening. Winds may increase quickly as the
initial wind shift move through before winds steadily decrease
through the overnight hours. Cooler temperatures are expected on
Wednesday as winds continue to diminish.

Models have backed off slightly over the past few days on
potential on Thursday. Best chances are contained to the Friday
timeframe. Significant differences remain in the track of the
upper low which will have significant impacts on the duration of
chances into the weekend. The furthest north track has also showed
a continual decrease in forecast instability so our chance for
thunder remain on a gradual decline. Behind this system, fairly
quiet weather is expected for the start of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strongest winds remain across the northwestern Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles this afternoon. A quick increase in winds can be
expected as the cloud cover thins/moves southeastward. Also seeing
negative dew points across eastern NM moving towards the westward
portions of the Panhandles this afternoon. Kenton, OK has already
dropped to positive 1 while a few locations across the southern
Texas Panhandle have dropped to the single digits. Also, a surface
trough is starting to move into the northwester portion of the
combined Panhandles as winds are taking on a more westerly
component of the wind. This westward trend of the winds is
expected across the area as we move into the late afternoon/early
evening hours.

A cold front is expected to move through the Panhandles late this
evening from NW to SE. The front should start to enter the NW
Oklahoma Panhandle between 7-8 PM, stretch from roughly Vega to
Beaver around 9-10 PM, and be southeast of the Panhandles by
Midnight to 1 AM. This front will be reaching the southeastern
portion of the Texas Panhandle as west-southwest winds ahead of
the front will be decreasing. Once the wind shift out of the north
occurs, expected a quick increase in winds. As the front continues
to march southeastward winds will slowly decrease throughout the
night. The dry post-frontal airmass won't supply much relative
humidity recovery overnight as most of the area will remain below
50%.

Winds continue to drop off throughout the day on Wednesday as the
post-frontal airmass settles in. This will offset the lowest
relative humidity. As such, elevated and critical fire weather
conditions are not expected on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                42  67  39  70  45 /   0   0   0   5  20
Beaver OK                  41  69  35  70  45 /   0   0   0   5   5
Boise City OK              36  62  35  68  43 /   0   0   0   5  30
Borger TX                  46  69  43  71  47 /   0   0   0   5  20
Boys Ranch TX              41  67  38  72  47 /   0   0   0   5  30
Canyon TX                  42  67  39  71  46 /   0   0   0   5  20
Clarendon TX               47  69  41  71  47 /   0   0   0   5  10
Dalhart TX                 37  64  34  70  45 /   0   0   0   5  30
Guymon OK                  38  66  36  70  45 /   0   0   0   5  20
Hereford TX                41  67  38  71  46 /   0   0   0   5  30
Lipscomb TX                46  70  37  71  46 /   0   0   0   5   0
Pampa TX                   42  67  39  69  45 /   0   0   0   5  20
Shamrock TX                49  70  41  71  47 /   0   0   0   0   5
Wellington TX              51  72  43  72  49 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 2 AM CDT Wednesday for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf
     Smith...Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley...Hemphill...
     Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...
     Potter...Randall...Roberts...Sherman...Wheeler.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Deaf Smith...
     Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hemphill...Hutchinson...
     Lipscomb...Ochiltree...Potter...Randall...Roberts...Wheeler.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Dallam...Hartley...Moore...Oldham...Sherman.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 2 AM CDT Wednesday for the following
     zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Beaver.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Cimarron...Texas.

&&

99/29

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
303 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-181000-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
303 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Widespread extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected
to continue across all of the Panhandles until 2 AM Wednesday
morning. A High Wind Warning is in effect for the western and
central Oklahoma Panhandle and much of the northwest and western
Texas Panhandle until 9 PM this evening. A Wind Advisory is also
in affect for the remainder of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles
until 9 PM this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday and Saturday. Severe
storms are not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
extremely critical fire weather conditions today.