Showers with thunderstorms developed in the afternoon hours due to the combination of a strong upper level trough and low level moisture. The activity developed across the Cordillera Central of Puerto Rico and moved southwestward along the southern slopes of Puerto Rico.
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The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
Showers with thunderstorms developed in the afternoon hours due to the combination of a strong upper level trough and low level moisture. The activity developed across the Cordillera Central of Puerto Rico and moved southwestward along the southern slopes of Puerto Rico.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 25, 11:21 AM AST, 2 hours 39 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1121 AM AST Sun Feb 25 2018
UPDATE...Recent 25/12z TJSJ upper air sounding, radar and satellite
imagery all suggest low level moisture mainly below 700 mbs... with
some scattered high clouds quickly streaming across the region in
the prevailing southwesterly wind flow. Tutt low and associated trough
is expected to linger across Hispaniola while slowly lifting northeast
into the Atlantic and filling/weakening. In the meantime, expect
this feature to provide sufficient ventilation and instability to combine
with the advective moisture pattern to support periods of passing showers,
and the change of isolated thunderstorms mainly across portions
of the Atlantic coastal waters and western Puerto Rico during the
afternoons at least through Monday. Lesser activity expected across
the U.S Virgin islands, but quick periods of moderate to locally
heavy showers will remain possible especially in and around the
Northern U.S. Virgin Islands. An improvement in the overall weather
pattern with much drier conditions and lesser moisture advection
is forecast during the latter part of the work week. No change
made to the inherited forecast package at this time.
&&
.AVIATION UPDATE...No change to AVN discussion. Prevailing VFR
durg prd. However, SCT-BKN cld lyrs mostly nr FL025...FL050...
FL090...FL200 ovr local flying area and btw PR and Lesser
Antilles with embedded SHRA/-SHRA. Isold TSRA ovr offshore ATL N
of PR Few TOPS nr FL280. Brief MVFR and MTN top obscr psbl en
route btw islands, and ovr ctrl MTN range of PR due to SHRA and
Low CIG fm 25/17z-22z.
&&
.MARINE UPDATE...No change to previous Marine discussion. Based
on recent obs from local and offshore buoys, Seas continue to
gradually subside, and were between 4-6 feet near shore and 5 to 7
feet offshore and in the local passages. Small craft advisories
remain in effect for portions of the offshore Atlantic waters and
local passages. Small craft operators should continue to exercise
due to winds between 10 to 20 knots creating choppy Seas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 72 82 73 / 50 50 20 50
STT 82 72 82 72 / 40 40 10 50
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for Culebra-
North Central-Northeast-Northwest-San Juan and Vicinity-
Southeast-Western Interior.
VI...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for St Croix.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM AST this afternoon for Anegada
Passage Southward to 17N-Atlantic Waters of Puerto Rico and
USVI from 10 NM to 19.5N-Mona Passage Southward to 17N.
&&
SHORT TERM...RAM
LONG TERM....RAMHazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED National Weather Service San Juan PR 555 AM AST Sun Feb 25 2018 AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-260945- San Juan and Vicinity-Northeast-Southeast-Eastern Interior- North Central-Central Interior-Ponce and Vicinity-Nortwest- Western Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-Southwest-Culebra-Vieques- The nearshore and off shore Atlantic and Caribbean Coastal Waters- 555 AM AST Sun Feb 25 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Puerto Rico and the adjacent Atlantic Coastal Waters. .Day One...Today and Tonight .Thunderstorms...There is a chance of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and brief gusty winds this afternoon across portions of southwest Puerto Rico. .Flooding...Heavy rains could lead to urban and small stream flooding. .Wind...Sustained winds in excess of 20 MPH expected across the local waters. .Waves...Choppy/Rough seas up to 7 expected across the Atlantic Waters and Mona Passage. .Rip Currents...There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the beaches along the Atlantic coastline. .Days Two through Seven...Monday through Saturday Winds and waves will slowly decrease through mid-week. An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible Monday and Tuesday over interior, west and south Puerto Rico. Locally heavy rain is possible through Tuesday, likely resulting in ponding of water in poorly drained areas or urban and small stream flooding. .Spotter information statement... Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual spotter are encouraged to report High winds, Flooding, rip currents to the National Weather Service in San Juan. AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-260945- St. Thomas St. John adjacent Islands-St Croix- Nearshore Atlantic and adjacent Caribbean Coastal Waters- 555 AM AST Sun Feb 25 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the U.S. Virgin Islands and the ADJACENT Coastal Waters. .Day One...Today and Tonight .Wind...Sustained winds in excess of 20 MPH expected across the local waters. .Waves...Choppy/Rough seas up to 7 feet expected across the Atlantic Waters. .Rip Currents...There is a high risk of rip currents for some beaches of St Croix. .Days Two through Seven...Monday through Saturday Winds and waves will slowly decrease through mid-week. An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible early Tuesday morning. .Spotter information statement... Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual spotter are encouraged to report High winds, Flooding, rip currents to the National Weather Service in San Juan.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Pea size hail was reported around 2 PM AST along road PR-132. Public and social media posts confirmed additional small hail reports.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, February 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 742482.