Oregon, 2018

High Surf in Oregon, January 3, 2018

January 3, 2018 · NWS MFR · 1 event in 1 county or zone

A wave swept a Nevada resident off a rock near Indian Sands Trail, 16 miles north of Brookings Oregon. This occurred around 10 AM PST on 01/03/2018.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

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The toll

Deaths
1
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.

A wave swept a Nevada resident off a rock near Indian Sands Trail, 16 miles north of Brookings Oregon. This occurred around 10 AM PST on 01/03/2018. His body was not found after several days of searching.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 3, 9:15 AM PST, 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 3, 9:15 AM PST, 45 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
915 AM PST Wed Jan 3 2018

.UPDATE...Dense fog continues in the Rogue Valley today.
Comparative to yesterday, I cannot even see the building across
the street, and this will continue through the morning. Overall,
the fog will become less dense with the minimal mixing, but do
expect the low stratus and fog to stick around today. Late this
afternoon and evening, the frontal system will move through
southern Oregon and northern California which will bring in higher
clouds and encourage mixing.

Have done two things with this information. Will allow the Air
Stagnation Advisory to expire at 4 PM this afternoon (unless we
get better mixing earlier, then we'll cancel.) And have lowered
the temperature forecast a few degrees in the Rogue Valley since
the fog/stratus will prevent warming until near sunset. -Schaaf

&&

.MARINE...Updated 830 AM PST Wednesday 3 Jan 2018...West swell
will gradually build to around 9 feet at 15 seconds today and
continue into Thursday morning. Winds will remain light and
variable, and with little to no wind wave action, and seas will
remain just below small craft advisory criteria. A weak warm front
will lift through the waters late tonight and Thursday morning
turning winds to the south. South winds gradually increase through
Thursday night and then reach small craft advisory levels Friday
as weak low pressure moves from south to north across the waters.
A moderate west swell arrives behind this system Saturday, but
winds will be lighter as high pressure moves through. A stronger
frontal system may bring stronger south winds and heavier seas
Sunday into Monday. Confidence in this system remains moderate but
is increasing as all models are now in general agreement. -BPN/Wright

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 512 AM PST Wed Jan 3 2018/

DISCUSSION...A Dense Fog Advisory /PDXNPWMFR/ remains in effect
through 10 AM this morning for the Rogue and Illinois Valleys.
Similar to Tuesday morning, visibilities have improved a bit
overnight at the valley floor but dense fog likely persists in the
heart of the stratus deck on the edges of the valley about 200
feet above the valley floor. The Air Stagnation Advisory for
southern Oregon valleys was extended a few hours to run through
this afternoon. It is not until the late afternoon/early evening
that low pressure moving northeast from offshore of California
will produce stronger southerly winds that will begin to mix the
lower levels of the air mass.

This front will also bring a high probability of very light
precipitation of around a tenth of an inch or less. The
probability will be highest near south facing slopes including Mt.
Shasta City and Hilt. It will mainly fall as rain with a snow
level around 8000 ft msl.

Our area will be largely between systems on Thursday with a
widespread slight chance of light rain but a likelihood of a
measureable amount near the coast and near Mount Shasta with the
snow level still near 7500 ft msl. It will be a day of breezy
southerly winds except for windy conditions with gusts to 40 mph in
the Shasta Valley.

A stronger front will follow a similar track northeastward into
northern California late Thursday night through Friday. Southerly
winds are likely to reach a peak of intensity during the day with
advisory strength gusts of 40 to 50 mph possible at the coast, in
the Shasta Valley, and east of the Cascades. Precipitation amounts
will be limited where the southerly low level winds are
downslope, particularly the Shasta Valley and Rogue Valley. Snow
levels will fall from around 7500 to 5500 ft during the event.
Precipitation accumulation near the coast and near Mt. Shasta
will likely be in the range of half an inch to an inch. Otherwise,
mainly up to a quarter of an inch at inland portions of the west
side and Cascades, and up to a tenth of an inch on the east side.

Snow levels will finally drop to around 3500 feet late Friday
night into Saturday as the upper level trough swings inland across
the Pacific Northwest. But, accumulation from post-frontal showers
will be meager, though there is some uncertainty. The GFS
indicates just a dusting while the ECMWF shows a stronger
shortwave on Saturday afternoon that could bring 2 or 3 inches of
snow to the Diamond Lake/Crater Lake region Saturday afternoon and
evening.

It is a similar story for Sunday with the ECMWF looking similar
but generating more QPF than the GFS with the next trough
dropping southeast out of the Gulf of Alaska. It pushes the next
front into the Pacific Northwest with the southern edge brushing
northern California.

Model differences increase beyond the weekend but the pattern is
likely to remain active at least into early Wednesday with a
broad trough tracking east to southeast toward California.

AVIATION...03/12Z TAF CYCLE...Strong valley inversions remain in
place over the west side this morning, and fog and stratus with LIFR
ceilings and visibility are common. Fog is expected to gradually
lift today similar to the past several days, but it may not clear
entirely today. A frontal system will be approaching today, but it
is not really strong enough to mix the stratus out of Medford until
late today at the earliest. It does appear as though the front will
finally scour out the airmass tonight as rain arrives and some
southeast winds finally move into the Medford area. The coast and
east side are expected to remain VFR. -Wright

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for
     ORZ023>026-029>031.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ024-026.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...None.

BMS/DW/BPN

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 high surf. Local standard time, as filed.

High Surf, Curry County Coast

When
January 3, 10:00 AM PST to 10:05 AM PST
Where
Curry County Coast forecast zone
Deaths
1 direct, 0 indirect
Reported by
Newspaper
Coordinates
42.467, -124.215 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A wave swept a Nevada resident off a rock near Indian Sands Trail, 16 miles north of Brookings Oregon. This occurred around 10 AM PST on 01/03/2018. His body was not found after several days of searching.

The people who died

As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.

EventDateAgeSexWhereKind
High Surf, Curry County Coast2018-01-0321MaleIn WaterDirect

What these are

High Surf
Large waves breaking on the shore that caused damage, erosion or casualties.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Oregon in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, January 2018

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 726483.