Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, July 22, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
705 PM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018

.AVIATION...
Mostly VFR except for GUY witch will probably see MVFR due to
thunderstorms. Winds will be shifting to the north from north to
south starting after 03Z. Cold frontal passage could bring breezy
conditions and thunderstorms at GUY could have significant gusts
up to 50 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 319 PM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...
This afternoon will be the last of the excessive heat conditions,
at least for the next 7-10 days. Current temperatures already in
the 100-105 range prompted us to extend the Heat Advisory north
and northwestward across the central and portions of the western
Panhandles where high temperatures will reach the 100-109 range
across the Panhandles.

This evening, latest hi-res model guidance bring in the cold front
from the north a bit faster than previous runs. Currently across
the eastern Colorado Plains and western Kansas, the cold front
will continue to move to the south and southeast throughout the
Panhandles tonight and into the early morning hours on Monday.
Some of the latest short term guidance outputs are not in
agreement with the rainfall amounts ranging from almost no precip
to some measurable amounts in the northwestern Panhandles. Latest
hi-res guidance however continues to show a local 500 hPa vort
max along a perturbation moving southeastward across the periphery
of the anti-cyclonic flow centered near the Four Corners Region.
As a result, POPs were kept in the forecast, especially in the
northwestern areas given guidance consensus. Especially coupled
with the front, some thunderstorms may produce some gusty winds at
times. Just in the wake of the front itself across the
northwestern Panhandles, rapid pressure rises may cause a brief
local high wind gust near 30 kts around the midnight hour, or
sooner depending if the front moves through faster.

Going forward into the first half of the week, the main
vertically stacked high pressure system will continue to drift to
the west-southwest and as a result, perturbations along the
periphery of the flow should keep the best chances of diurnal
convection across the western Panhandles. High temperatures behind
the front should return back to near to slightly above average
with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s through Wednesday.
Precipitation chances with the disturbances in the mean anti-
cyclonic flow with more detailed locations will be better
determined as we go throughout the week on a day by day basis.

The highest chances of precipitation for the forecast period may
not come until the end of the week throughout the Panhandles. As
the center of the main vertically stacked high pressure system
sits over southern Arizona by Thursday, upper level height
gradients will continue to strengthen across the central Plains
as a rather strong disturbance develops across the Great lakes
region. As a result, a 70-90 kt jet will try and develop across
the central Plains oriented from northwest to southeast. This
will aid in lift for diurnal convection with some favorable jet
dynamics. This should increase chances for more organized
convection throughout the Panhandles. Best chances maybe closest
to the jet dynamics across the northern Panhandle, but this will
be fine tuned as we get closer with time. High temperatures to end
the week will continue to be slightly above average.

Meccariello

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

16/15

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
702 PM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-231215-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
702 PM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible across the Oklahoma Panhandle and
the northern Texas Panhandle. A storm may become severe with
damaging winds the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Saturday across
much of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Thunderstorms may
become strong at times with gusty winds being the main hazard.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.