Hail and Damaging Winds in Ohio, May 4, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
122 PM EDT Fri May 4 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over Wisconsin will track eastward across southern
Ontario today. As it does it will drag a cold front across the
region. High pressure briefly builds across the area on Saturday
but another cold front should arrive on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Update: Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for entire area through
7 PM

Convection has developed over IN/MI as anticipated. As this line
moves rapidly eastward we can expect strengthening. The cape
remains modest, but the strong low and mid level shear will not
take much depth to produce damage at the surface. The line will
be a quick hitter, moving east around 50knots. Some development
is possible ahead of the main line, but main threat for severe
storms will be associated with the main line. As the mid level
short wave lifts north into Ontaria the winds over Lake Erie
will strengthen. This push in the late afternoon could push wind
gusts over 50 mph, strongest on the eastern lakeshore. Wet
ground conditions are concerning as it won't take much for winds
to bring down trees, though they aren't fully leafed out. Less
cloud cover than anticipated is leading to warmer temperatures,
with many areas reaching around 80F before the front pushes
through this afternoon.

Prev Discussion...
Main forecast challenge today will be wind
potential with and apart from convection this afternoon. Winds
are already gusting around 30 mph or higher due to mixing. The
low level jet will increase as a shortwave approaches by midday.
The mixing ahead of a frontal boundary could reach 40 mph, but
the main threat will be along and behind the fropa. Mostly sunny
skies west of I-71 corridor and spreading east will support
daytime heating and increase surface based cape/buoyancy. The
frontal boundary will be the trigger for convection development
starting around 16Z/Noon in the western counties and rapidly
push east through early afternoon. The best instability and
shear will be over the easternmost counties which are
highlighted by a slight risk from SPC. Western counties are
marginally less vulnerable, however it won't take much to mix
down severe winds. The severe risk will be limited to a line of
storms which will develop and move east rather quickly. This
will be followed by gusty WNW winds supported by deep mixing.
With wet ground conditions we won't be surprised to hear reports
of downed trees/power outages from winds not associated with
storms. Temperatures and humidity will noticeably drop behind
the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Broad upper level trough will become the dominant upper level
feature across the easter half of the United States Saturday night
through Monday. The upper level flow will allow cooler air to
spill into the local area albeit not as cold as recent cold air
outbreaks. Cold pool is expected to remain just north of the
forecast area Sunday into Sunday night. The forecast area will
be under the influence of two potent positive vorticity
maximums. One will move northeast across the southeastern
portions of the forecast area Saturday night with associated
moisture will another swings through the area Sunday afternoon
and early Sunday night. Negative vorticity advection pushes east
late Sunday night across the area with much drier air.

High pressure at the surface over the forecast area will push east
of the area Saturday allowing a cold front to move southeast to just
north of the lake by Saturday night. The front will become
nearly stationary as a weak wave of low pressure moves east
along the front. Eventually, as the low moves east of the area,
a trailing cold front will move south across the local area late
Sunday into Sunday night. These features will bring a chance
for showers and thunderstorms across the region. Then, high
pressure will build southeast across the forecast area for
Monday ushering in cooler air to the local area. As the high
pressure begins to push east of the area Monday night, a return
to milder air will begin to take place on the west side of the
high pressure. As of right now, temperatures look like they
should be just warm enough to prevent frost in most areas. Can't
rule out frost potential in some of the normally colder spots
if temperatures drop into the middle 30s Monday night. Winds do
go light and variable along with clear skies so the potential
for good radiational cooling is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Large upper level trough pushes off the east coast Monday and allows
a flattening ridge to build in across the forecast area by
Wednesday. However, another deep digging upper level trough is
progged to move east across the area Thursday keeping the
forecast area in a changeable weather pattern through the
extended period.

A large area of surface high pressure will be the dominating weather
feature early in this forecast period. The high will bring fair
weather to the local area through Wednesday night. Weak low
pressure in association with a neutral tilted trough will move
east toward the area with a trailing cold front. Showers and the
possibility for thunderstorms will move east toward the area
Thursday.

In the wake of the surface high pressure, expecting warm air
advection to take place once again. We should see temperatures
climbing back into the 60s and 70s during the latter half of the
week in the warm air pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Convection over IN/MI will move rapidly east across all TAF
sites through the afternoon. There will be a brief period of 2SM
in the heavier rain, but the main concern will be the strong
winds over 45 knots. Severe storms are possible with gusts over
50 knots. Behind the line winds will increase out of the wnw as
an area of low pressure lifts into Ontario. The winds will gust
for 40-45 knots through sunset with gradual improving. Ceilings
will remain VFR apart from thunderstorms this evening. High
pressure on Saturday will favor VFR conditions throughout.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR may occur again Sunday into Sunday night in
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds are expected to increase dramatically with the cold front this
afternoon into the evening. Pressure gradients are fairly dramatic
and winds aloft support the threat for winds reaching moderate gales
on Lake Erie this afternoon into the evening hours. Expecting
35 to 40 knot winds to develop this afternoon. So, will hoist a
gale warning for the lake this afternoon into the evening. Small
craft advisories have been upgraded to the gale warning. Keep
in mind winds will not be that strong this morning but expect
them to ramp up fairly quickly with the daylight hours. Winds
diminish quickly overnight to less than 10 knots out of the
southwest. Generally light winds expected into early Sunday and
then cold front slides south across the lake causing winds to
increase again out of the north at 20 to 25 knots. Once again
winds diminish Sunday night into Monday from the east as high
pressure builds south and become light and variable for Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ011>014-
     020>023-031>033-038-089.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-006>010-
     017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Low Water Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>145-
     162>165.
     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>145-
     162>165.
     Gale Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for LEZ146>149-
     166>169.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Jamison/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...TK/Lombardy
AVIATION...Jamison
MARINE...Lombardy

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1039 AM EDT Fri May 4 2018

OHZ003-006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047-051445-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Wyandot-
Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Marion-Morrow-Knox-
1039 AM EDT Fri May 4 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio and
northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

OHZ011>014-020>023-031>033-038-089-PAZ001>003-051445-
Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Holmes-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-
Southern Erie-Crawford-
1039 AM EDT Fri May 4 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Wind shear will increase ahead of a cold front today and may lead to
strong to severe thunderstorms. Strong damaging winds will be the
main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

LEZ142>145-162>165-051445-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
1039 AM EDT Fri May 4 2018

...LOW WATER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Low Water Advisory.
   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

LEZ061-146>149-166>169-051445-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
1039 AM EDT Fri May 4 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.