Scattered thunderstorms developed along a slow moving frontal boundary.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILN wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms developed along a slow moving frontal boundary.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 15, 12:41 PM EST, 35 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 141 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... The threat for showers and thunderstorms will persist through much of the week as a frontal boundary remains in place across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will remain above normal through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Rest of morning should be dry before instability builds this afternoon while a weak cold front moves southeast into the region. We should see another day of warm temperatures, lower 80s northwest with mid to upper 80s elsewhere. These temperatures, along with dewpoints in the 60s, will result in at least moderate instability. Low level frontal convergence will team up with perhaps a weak embedded disturbance aloft to result in showers and thunderstorms. Adjusted location north toward Central Ohio based on latest hi res models. Given the moderate instability and low end moderate shear, a few strong to severe storms will be possible. As such, a good part of our area is in a marginal risk for severe storms. Will continue to mention this threat in the HWO product. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... The front will slip south of the Ohio River tonight, but will remain nearby into Wednesday, Ongoing showers/storms in the southern zones will drift south and decrease in coverage through the night as instability wanes and overall forcing weakens. Lows will range from the upper 50s north to the mid 60s south. On Wednesday, we will remain in a quasi-zonal flow aloft. There appears to be a lack of any real significant disturbance aloft. As a result, the nearby frontal boundary will be the only feature to provide some weak convergence in our southeast/southern CWFA. So, with some day time heating expected, a chance of showers and thunderstorms has been maintained for much of the region, with the highest threat in the south/southeast and least in the far north. With a little more cloud cover and low level northeast flow, temperatures will be a little cooler, upper 70s to the lower 80s. However, these readings are still above normal for mid May. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... On Wednesday night, a frontal boundary will remain in the area, but with a gradual motion to the south that will allow most of the ILN CWA to be dry to start the period -- with just some chances of precipitation in the southern counties. As the night progresses, though, a mid-level trough over the lower Mississippi Valley will begin to move east, with southerly flow advecting moisture into the Ohio Valley. This will allow for precipitation to spread back into the region on Thursday, especially in the eastern half of the CWA. This slow-moving system will keep precipitation chances around for another day or two. It may not be until Saturday afternoon/evening that the trough kicks out and the surface boundary moves far enough north to place the area back in the drier warm sector. Any brief respite from precipitation late Saturday into Sunday will be short-lived, with a separate system coming out of the northern plains and into the Great Lakes later Sunday and into Monday. Eventually a cold front will move into (and probably through) the Ohio Valley, which should provide one last focus for storm development before high pressure enters the area. Though specific convective elements are tough to forecast out into the extended period, overall model agreement and consistency on the large-scale features is fairly strong through this period. Temperatures are likely to remain above normal through the forecast period, with rain being most likely Friday, keeping temperatures in the 70s on that day. Once back in the warm sector on Sunday, temperatures will reach their highest values (mid 80s) of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... There will be VFR conditions to start the TAF period under a humid and unstable airmass. However, thunderstorms may develop near a southward moving boundary and move to TAF sites by this evening. This may bring temporary MVFR visibilities to northern TAF sites. A lull in convection is expected during the overnight hours with loss of daytime heating, though showers may linger in the vicinity as the boundary lifts back north of the Ohio River toward TAF sites. Later tonight, models indicate MVFR ceilings forming in nearly saturated air, so kept them in the forecast. Rather slow improvement to VFR is forecast for Thursday while winds transition to northeast. OUTLOOK...Chances for thunderstorms will exist at times through Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...Coniglio
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1217 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018 INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-161630- Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio- Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant- Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke- Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison- Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway- Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown- Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto- 1217 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. A few thunderstorms may become strong to severe this afternoon and this evening. Damaging winds and large hail would be the primary severe weather threats. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1031 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0134 PM TSTM WND DMG HANOVER 40.08N 82.27W
05/14/2018 LICKING OH DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
A FEW TREES DOWNED.
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MBPThe Cincinnati radar (KILN), 75 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:17 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind, 3 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was downed onto some power lines.
Two trees were downed.
A home sustained some roof damage.
A few tree branches were downed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Ohio in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Ohio, May 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 745271, 745273, 745275, 745272, 745276, 745277, 745274.